Crypto Monotheism Versus Polytheism

 

I don't own cryptos or shares of companies related to cryptos.

Hence, I'm not talking my own book here.

But I'm impressed with the price action of cryptos recently during the banking troubles in US and Switzerland. 

Aren't you?

I've noticed an interesting phenomenon amongst the crypto believers. There are 2 major camps - the Monotheists and the Polytheists.

The Monotheists believe there is only ONE true crypto. Everything else is just bullshit. 

The Polytheists believe in anything and everything. Just as long the story is compelling! 

As a crypto "atheist", I'll just stand aside and watch from the opposite bank with interest.

I mean even if you into crypto, it's something you ultimately have to resolve amongst the believers.

Crypto believers out there, are you a Monotheist or Polytheist?

It's like real life.

Even if you believed in religion, your fate isn't better than the atheists and agnostics out there if you died and discover,

"Shit! Wrong religion!"

 

You Can't Avoid Risks - Even If You Save More

 

And that's the frustrating and super exasperating experience for risk averse savers, isn't it?

Imagine waking one day to discover there's a bank run on the bank you have most of your savings in!?

Or to learn the insurance company you have bought all your insurance policies from is going bankrupt?

And the kicker is you not even a speculator on the Earn More path!!!

Imagine telling your Save More family members they got to monitor the financial well-being of their banks and insurance companies (if CPF must follow Singapore's economy/population statistics)!?

They would probably tell you if they must do all these due diligences, they might as well just hop on the Earn More path and speculate on the shares or bonds of these financial institutions instead!!!

Wait a minute... 

Now that's a thought!

 

 

Don't Ever Say...

 

How to spot those "investors" who have decades in "retail investing" but actually are those "grey old lambs" that have 1 year "investing" experience times 30? 

"If this stock/listed company fails, Singapore will collapse too lah!"

Well, Credit Suisse is the no. 2 in Switzerland.

There's also Deutsche Bank but that's a story for another day... Rising interest rates in the Eurozone should help them out (for now). 

For those of us who went through Lehman 2008, remember AIG?

AIG was rescued, but the shareholders only got back 10 cents on the dollar.

The same for Silicon Valley Bank - the depositors were bailed out like those insurance policy holders at AIG, but if you were the shareholder or bond holder...

Then for our very own Hyflux, you'll see in the forums how some expected to be bailed out - thinking water is "strategic" to Singapore...

Bei kambings we don't say as it's their first crash got sound experience with major losses,

"Eh? Stocks don't always go up???"

But some who lost money in Hyflux have decades of "experience"...

How else to explain except first year experience times 30?

Equities and bonds are Earn More vehicles.

The problem is when we treat them as Save More vehicles...

Especially those who have been on the "passive" Save More path for decades. 

In their late 50s or 60s, flushed with lots of cash, suddenly feel they should Earn More as compared to their peers who made a lot more with properties or equities, they have fallen behind quite a lot... (Selective perception - only see those who made money, ignore those who lost until pants drop)

It's like the iceberg analogy. 

What you don't see when Earn More craftsmen made money are those chopped fingers (like Yakuza members), battle scars, and nights of stomach churnings when they bought while others sold; or sold while others bought...

Sure. Walk in nonchalantly with just a goal and a plan. 

Well, they worked for Save More, doesn't it?

Yup. It sure does!

But you forget. Save More most of it is within your control. Discipline anyone?

How many factors of Earn More are within your control?

Ding!

 

Deja Vu

 

Talk about volatility and whiplash!

A few days ago, markets were re-pricing higher interest rates for longer (no thanks to Powell), and now it's back to pricing in rate cuts before the end of this year!? 

For those of us who lived through 2000 and 2008, it's a bit like deja vu, no?

Over-priced tech and fears over the solvency of financial institutions - 2 in 1?

Yeeks!

Mai lah!

To play it safe or to take on more risks?

 

It's easy to set goals and make plans.

Come to think of it, anyone and everyone can do it!

Say, say only who cannot?

But when it comes to doing reviews and being honest with oneself, then not everyone and anyone can or willing to do it....

I like Real People Real Stories (stolen with pride from CW).

Below I'll link 2 interesting perspectives from 2 bloggers in our community:

1) Buying A Modest Home Has Been A Poor Wealth Building Advice For the Past 10 years 

2) 6 Lessons Learnt After Losing 551k In 10 Years Of Investing & Options Trading 

How?

It's back to the Earn More or Save More paths to take right?

It would great if someone is willing to share their CPF voluntary contribution review versus if they had passively dollar-cost-averaged the extra funds into STI or S&P 500 ETFs over the past 10 years.

Or compare CPF versus dividend investing?

One thing is clear even without doing any reviews.

In bull markets, Earn More will beat Save More hands down. That's provided if you know when to take profits!

In bear markets, Earn More practitioners would have wished they never invested in the first place... 

So what if inflation is eating into your purchasing power long term since interest rates are negative in real terms?

The more you invest the more you lose hurts a lot more!!!

Then again, knowing Earn More is a necessary evil to beat inflation long term (you think why CPFIS was introduced if Save More was enough) is meaningless if you have the self-awareness that you are risk averse.

That's why is always back to KNOW YOURSELF.

Self-awareness is hard. We often own self lie to own self.

Harmony is when we are at peace with who we are and our chosen vehicles.

Jobs anyone and everyone can do, that's why they pay the salary they do.

Careers that few can do - like fighter pilot or surgeon - that's why they can command that kind of compensation.

We all know this intuitively. 

Then pretend it does not apply to the realm of Earn More....

Big Daddy Volunteer CPF Contributions For You!

 

Big daddy good or what?

See?

By raising the CPF limit from $6K to $8K, some who are already doing voluntary contributions to CPF today can save the trouble in future...

Big daddy will ask your employer to do it for you!

Now that's service or what!?

Good, better, best!!!

As for those who are transferring their CPF funds out to bank fixed deposits or treasury bills, presumably there are better vehicles than CPF out there, be glad you can still transfer them out!

Think of those who want to preserve more take home pay to speculate in cryptos, options, futures, overseas properties, baseball cards, Hello Kitty collectibles, antiques, fine wine; etc...

Well, sorry. 

It's for your own good.

Why does big daddy need to raise the CPF limit?

To keep pace with inflation.

I see.

To hedge against an asset that loses its purchasing power over time, the solution is to accumulate more of it???

Nanti dulu...

 

What's So Great About Being 55?

 

I turned 55 end of last year.

Well, I qualify for 2023's Cost-of-Living Seniors' Bonus this coming June!

LOL!

So I'm "officially" Senior Citizen now?

Not really.

To qualify for Senior Citizen discounts at the supermarkets and take concession travels with our public transport, I have to wait till I'm 60.

I guess this COL Seniiors' Bonus is salve for constantly being reminded I look old at the supermarket checkouts,

"Sir, do you have your Senior Citizen Card?"

Or maybe it's a "conspiracy" to get me to use the self-payment machines???

Poke me until I cannot tahan no choice die die have to use the self-payment machines just to avoid the annoyance of being reminded I'm old fogey oredi :(

"Hello! I look so old meh?"

Yes, I do look old.

So what's so great about being 55?

Nothing.

I'm still the same me. Mentally at least. But the body...

All things being equal, if a genie appeared to let me choose whether I would like to be 18 again, but I would lose everything financially I've built-up, I wouldn't hesitate one second!

It's like pressing the reset button on your favourite role-playing game.

Would you do it?

Mask Free At Last!!!

 

Even happier is I got confirmation this morning from my sales colleague next weekend no masks needed too!

3 years...

Nope. Not gonna wear masks on the trains and busses later on when I go out.

But I will wear a mask in public when I visit the doctor or not feeling well going forward. That's being socially responsible.

I don't want to spread my illness to others. Even if it's just the common cold.

I do hope Singapore will become like Taiwan or Japan in this regard. But I not keeping my hopes high...

I'll just do my part. I not going to Indian Chief others what to do.

 

Then what's with this "arguing with the STOP sign" post?

Notice there's quite a lot (maybe majority) of Singaporeans thought wearing masks can "protect" them from the Wuhan virus?

I on the other hand belong to the camp that sees wearing masks as a way to prevent us from "inadvertently" spreading our illnesses to others.

Same, same; but different.

One group is motivated by "greed". 

Greed for life... I, me, and myself come first. 

The other side is more torn apart by "fear".

Imagine the guilt to know you have caused others harm... No matter how inadvertently...

Knowing what buttons to press is key if you want to influence others.

If you're a fledgling snake oil, don't say old fogey snake oil me never support you.

I've just revealed a bit of cleavage; I don't do full nudity.

The rest you figure out for yourselves!

As always, make money don't forget to buy me kopi!

To Serve Man

 

Can't assume all readers to this watering-hole are from my generation.

Some of the words and stories I've shared in the comments may flew over the heads of younger readers who don't share the same context and experience growing up.

I would like to share this very memorable Twilight Zone episode to you - To Serve Man.

That is why I cringe whenever I hear some snake oil proudly shares it's his "mission" to create X number of millionaires in Singapore!

I immediately think of this Twilight Zone episode. Wink.

By the way, if you are financially literate, you wouldn't want anyone and everyone to be a "millionaire" in Singapore. 

That would be pointless.

Just visit Indonesia or Vietnam. 

Anyone and everyone there are Indonesian Rupiah or Vietnamese Dong millionaires!

This One Better Than The Monkey Trap!

 

I was going to write about the Monkey Trap (you can google yourself if you want).

However, I chance upon this YouTube video that's even more power!!!

I'll let you watch without commentary:

How?

Does that not remind you of the group behaviour you see in the investment/trading community?

Notice how the trapped monkeys rushed to the smaller cage in the end?

Can you relate and link this "2nd dip" reflex action to actual examples you may know?

If you share yours; I'll share mine. 

Nope. I Not Gonna Bite

 

Read the physical Kopitiam discount card will be discontinued by end June this year.

OK lor. No discount no discount lor.

Nope. Not gonna be corralled like sheep. I won't bite.

I mean eat at Kofu I also never download the app for 10% discount.

Same for my favourite fast food McDonald, I also never bothered to download the app.

You mean to tell me if you hungry, got Kofu or Burger King in front, you'll make a big detour to Kopitiam or McDonald, just because you want to enjoy the 10% discount or to earn points for free meals?

OK...

My friend whatsapped me the DBS PayLah! $3 promotion every Friday.  

Huh? You want me to get up early Friday to "rush" so that I can beat the 100,000 customers only limit? 

Free? Got to jump through hoops... It works better on puppies. I too old and "cat like"... 

No. Hungry eat; tired rest.

 

If you really that "kiasu", don't want to miss out on every freebie or discount, then don't complain your smartphone got 1001 apps!

That's the trend going forward.

I know what big daddy is doing. Laying the groundwork for that eventuality.

It's OK.

I'll enjoy my current "I have a choice" until that day comes.

 

Look Within To Determine Whether You Should Top-Up Your CPF

 

Warning.

Super long read. I'm not kidding!!!

It would be a pain if you try to read it on your mobile. 

More importantly, this post is not for casual reading. 

You need to face yourself in the mirror one. If not, it's pointless and just wasting your time...

If still interested, recommend you read it at home on your PC, notebook, or tablet when your mind is calm and rested.

Let's get the rules of engagement out of the way:

1.  I did not ask permission from the authors of the below blog posts to post the links here. Their posts were in the public domain. I not plagiarizing them OK!?

2.  Any bouquets or compliments should go to them directly. I "steal with pride", but I don't "steal" accreditation.

3.  If you don't agree or have problem with their writings, please deal with me directly. 

"Wait, wait! Let me get my maggi mee pot to protect my head first!

OK, send your sticks and stones my way. I'm ready!"

Read this before you top up your CPF

Very balanced post on CPF top-ups! One of the better ones out there...

It's written in collaboration with CPF. I saw the same post reproduced at CPF's website. 

Smart move by CPF! That's how you "Hong Lim" proof your ass!

Does Market Time Works Better Than DCA?

OK, Brian didn't set out to write about CPF; I bet he didn't know his post works great as unintended counterbalance to topping up our CPF!!!

If you're a snake oil financial advisor, you would use the same arguments from Brian to create FOMO (fear of missing out) with your clients, no?

"Don't be stupid lah!? Cash (and T-bills and CPF) will rot if you don't invest! See how much money you're leaving behind on the table long term!?

Even if you're the world's worst market timing Charlie Brown investor, you would still come out on top over "kiasi" savers hiding behing their so called "risk-free" Save More vehicles!"

Why snake oils so interested to help you get rich?

Because you can't make money recommending others to voluntarily top-up their CPF. But once bei kambings bite on Earn More vehicles, that's where you can start to milk and fleece through commissions and fees... Wink.

However, most don't see the "bait-and-switch" routine by some next level snake oils. 

It's like you advertise a super low price for a TV or notebook computer. Once your sales funnel got sucked into your showroom, this is where you start to upsell and cross-sell them all the bells and whistles! 

Ar ber then?

Ask those who walked into the showroom for 1M65, and walked out with 4M65. Kaching!

Trust but Verify

In my old job, I never trust a statistic that I've not personally manipulated myself.

Before I go on, let's poke holes in the 2 blog posts above.

Anyone who knows something about statistics will know we can data-mine whatever past data to suit our own thesis. 

 

Right off the bat I think those who are more well-read will find the Woke Salaryman's 10.7% annual return for S&P is a little too "snake oil". 

Let's use 8%. Including re-invested dividends.

As for CPF, anyone who use 5% or 6% is just showing they have very little money in CPF. 

Stick with 4%.

As for Brian's Cash returns, it's from a period of low interest rates in the States. Let's use 4%; same same as CPF.

Now you can generate your own "more conservative" statistics. What? You don't trust your own statistics?

How?

It doesn't change the fact that Earn More (not guaranteed and only a faith thing) will always beat Save More (guaranteed but no bragging rights).

That's a given.

Look Within

All I've said above is actually bullshit!!!

That's left-brained stuffs. It gives the illusion of "precision" (10.7%), but when you think about it, it's all based on assumptions, faith, and pure straight-line extrapolation. 

Now try my right-brained voodoo.

You know yourself.

Are you always envious and very jealous when others do better than you?

Were you angry and upset others were selling their HDB flats for above a million? Nothing to do with you, but yet you super "buay song"...

Now imagine you managed to reach 1M65, would you be totally fine to see your peers hitting 4M65 because they used their CPF to make money in properties or stocks?

Or would you turn around and petition CPF is for retirement! Take away CPFIS and ban the use of CPF for 2nd property... (Sounds familiar to HDB is for living only?)

You "upgraded" from a bigger HDB flat in best location mature estate to a much smaller and more "ulu" location condo in suburbia. Why? You die die must have that "live in condo" label or badge...

Now to the flip side, I've shared I have a colleague who forever quit stocks after losing a "mere" $5K... 

The pain was that excruciating for him.

In our community, there's a blogger (he no longer blogs) whom I respect a lot. He also shared he went into a depression after losing money... Even harboured suicidal thoughts...

Thankfully he has moved past and recovered from his dark days.

During the 97 Asian Financial Crisis or 2008 Lehman meltdown, thousands (not hundreds) of investors ended their lives...

It's hard, but who will willingly admit they are made of porcelain or glass? 

I'm sure when we do risk profile surveys, we will prefer to "own self lie to own self" we are made of rubber or stainless steel....

How?

Does that help you to determine whether you should top-up your CPF?

You don't have to study psychology to know yourself.

If you haven't forgotten your literature from secondary school, all we need is to read yourself like we are reading a character from a novel or play. Wink.

That's all!

STI back to pre-Wuhan virus level?

 

Count me impressed!

I mean we are just a whisker from STI 3400!!!

This is where long suffering passive "investors" into STI ETF or funds are finally getting their day in the sun!

This should make up for the years of underperforming US and HK indices...  

A bit like looking your civil servant hubby in a new light. 

Sure, compared to your jie-meis who married entrepreneurs or high-performing top sales, he may be a bit boring, but slow and consistent pay increases and promotions do add up! Like CPF hor?

Especially when your jie-mei's entrepreneur hubby is facing a mountain of debt in bankruptcy; or that top sales hubby of theirs is suffering a slump and "eating grass" during Wuhan virus lockdowns...

But then again, that's if you have bought the STI ETFs or funds.

I mean you can't say STI is in a bear market, right?

Yet, why is there a sea of red in your portfolio???

It's the rubber meets the road moment - do you stick with active stock picking (invest to achieve), or do you "capitulate" and agree with Warren Buffett that most people would be better off sticking with an index fund...

Ouch! 

Yeah, it's the - you want ego or want money moment!

 

Profit From HDB Policy "Mistakes"

 

OK, calling them "mistakes" would be too dangerous. Wait they ask me to "lim kopi"...

Better say "pivots" instead!

First, a walk down memory lane.

Remember those early generation rectangular HDB flats? 

Let's take those HDB 3 room flats at Tanglin Halt. They were known as "Simplified" or "S" versions - only 1 toilet and bathroom combined. 

If you look carefully, they have no corner flats at all!

Those you see that have converted to corner units were done by the tenants after buying the common corridor space from HDB for a "song". 

I know this for a fact as I bought my 9 sqm common corridor space at Tanglin Halt for a mere $1,000!!! Bargain or what? 

Of course, HDB knew about this "oversight" from crash got sound" - lucky can point the finger to SIT since the Tanglin Halt flats were inherited from them...

So, when the next generation "Improved" or "I" version HDB 3 room flats were built at Stirling Road/Mei Ling Street (toilet and bathroom separate), these flats came with the proper corner units sold at a premium compared to the corridor flats - hence the start of the trend where HDB corner flats were more "valuable" and "popular".

Where was the first HDB 5 room point-block flats built? 

Queenstown Stirling Road again!

OK. since every flat is a "corner" unit in this configuration, corner no longer commanded a premium. 

What's the differentiating factor then? 

For the first time we got HDB 20-storey! Guess when "high floor higher valuation; lower floor lower valuation" became the norm?

 

You get the picture.

How about the time when HDB were building big, bigger, and super humongous HDB flats?

They aren't doing it now. Are they?

What's the unintended consequences?

Punggol loft unit sold for $1.22 million dollars

Those of you who are staying in HDB executive apartments or maisonettes, you were glad you bought BIG correct?

Especially now HDB not building them anymore... Gee, I wonder why (sarcasm)?

Those of you staying at HDB 5 room flats in mature estates like Queenstown and Bukit Merah, have you taken notice the recent new BTOs in our estates were missing HDB 5 room flats?

I not benefitting from it (lowly HDB 3 roomer), but no harm letting you know. So don't sell your HDB 5 room flat for a song! 

Make money don't forget to buy me a drink hor!

Yup, if this trend continues, HDB 5 room flats' supply will get lesser and lesser in good location mature estates.

But they will be "common" in "ulu" non-mature estates. Big daddy is doing social engineering again...

The first step is by "redefining" what is a mature estate. Wink.

Just like "every school is a good school", whether you bite or not is up to you!

And this will lead us to Prime Location Public Housing (PLH).

Were you surprised like me with some of the locations of the PLH BTOs?

I mean the South Waterfront BTO is definitely PRIME location! 

The others??? 

I am betting in 10 years' time, older normal plain vanilla resale flats "near" these PLH flats will be more in demand (exception is South Waterfront). 

Therefore, pray hard there will be PLH BTOs near your flats!

Especially when you are staying at Queenstown, Bukit Merah, Kallang Whampoa, and Rochor.

You got to feel for those staying at Toa Payoh... (Unless you are betting HDB will extend the PHL model to Toa Payoh in future)

 

Who says you can only profit from properties only if we got a 2nd rental/investment unit?

Luck is preparation meeting opportunity - SMOL. (I shameless or what?)

Property is likely to be the biggest expenditure (or investment if you into Earn More) in our lives.

Guess how much time the average youth spend time on it?

In our community, you can see what they do - cutting coupons, jumping through hoops, chasing miles, and voluntarily contributing to CPF in their 20s or 30s???

Keep your eye on the big stuffs; the small stuffs will sort themselves out.

 

How to Influence Others to our Benefit

 

How time flies!

The first time I worked with Stacked Homes was way back in May 2021 where I shared my SERS journey.

Again, not an advertorial, but if you are into properties or renovating your dream home, I'm sure you would have discovered Stacked Homes by now.

The quality of their editorial content and YouTube videos are truly at craftsmanship level.

 

OK, today is not about them.

It's about me having a vested interest in sharing this article to you:

We Rushed To Buy A Home During The Pandemic: Here's Why It Nearly Became A Big Regret...

There are so many quality articles and YouTube videos at Stacked Homes.

Why this particular article???

Alert and regular visitors of this watering-hole will spot it quite easily. Wink.

Yes, it's that short little sentence, "I regretted not getting the top floor."

Since I'm the snake oil that wears the white hat, I'll share this little Jedi trick we play on our sales funnel all the time.

I could have kept quiet and share the article to you, giving you the "misdirection" it's all about how to avoid choosing an apartment with neighbours from hell!

And you would be none the wiser I'm doing a "psychological operation" on you, "Buy top floor lah!"

LOL!

That's why when I catch myself doing something a bit out of character. I'll look up to see who is pulling my strings.

When you make a decision, do you spend time pondering whether it's the actual you making this particular decision, or are you merely being manipulated influenced by others?

OK, this will keep you awake for several nights!

  

Rain and Stormy Clouds at Dawson

 

Same Singapore sky, different perspective at 40th floor.

Now I appreciate why Taoist priests and Buddhist monks like to build temples high up in the mountains in China...

 

Uncertain or Fixed Salary?

 

I have a quick way to "read" whether a person is more inclined to Earn More or Save More.

Just look at their day job.

Of course, there are exceptions. 

That's where Trust but Verify comes in. Wink.

Don't believe?

Just look at insurance and property agents (no basic, pure commissions), they are usually the most "aggressive" risk takers when it comes to investing/trading! No? They are also the biggest fans of FIRE! 

Then look at those who value high certainty in their monthly income. Dividends investing or voluntary contributions to CPF anyone?

Those "cover backside" risk profile surveys are useless.

Most of us like to own self lie to own self.

It's always better to judge what we do, not what we say!

Market Outlook for 2023

 

This is the view from my balcony looking towards Orchard to the right:

Rather ominous right?

Looks like dark clouds looming on the horizon?

But when I turned to my left towards Bukit Timah direction:

Eh?

OK, not clear blue skies, but bright and sunny clouds leh!

I took both pictures at the same time last week. 

One thing I discovered staying at the 40th floor is that I can now look at the skies in panoramic or wide-angle mode.

Right side dark, left side bright.

Some see pain ahead; some see opportunities.

I guess that's the outlook for 2023 for most of us - we see what we want to see!

P.S.  Can't make money if we don't place our bets. 

But it's OK if you trigger shy. Thanks to rising interest rates, there are now a lot more "Save More" vehicles to choose from!

This is life.

Landlords happy with rising rentals and property prices; tenants and property buyers suck thumb...

Investors not happy rising interest rates causing their stocks to crash and burn; savers happy they can finally choose other "colours" beside "black"!

Official Wealth; Speculative Wealth （正财偏财）

 

Trust our 5,000 years of Chinese wisdom to make a distinction between the two!

When you pray to your god/gods, set your financial goals, or dream about having bountiful wealth - which one are you focusing more on?

If you pray/set goals for career success, have a financially stable job, or always continuously upgrading yourself with multiple degrees/diplomas, that will probably be "Official Wealth" you after.

If you rely on 4D/Toto, play shares, hope your cryptos will shoot to the moon (again), not difficult to see you are banging on "Speculative Wealth" to change your life!

 

Look around your siblings, your neighbours, your colleagues, your classmates, your peers.

And especially your own circumstances.

Which one are they "luckier" with? Speculative Wealth or Official Wealth?

Now compare this knowledge with their chosen financial independence path - be it Earn More or Save More.

Are their financial goals and chosen vehicles still in harmony?

How about yourself?

Shame! 4th losing year in a row...

Started 2022 with $10.78. 

Ended it with $10.43.

A loss 0f -3%...

Remember Game of Thrones Cersi Lannister's walk of shame?

Shame! (Bell rings)

Shame! (Bell rings again)

Shame!

2022 - Down -3% (Shame! Shame! Shame!)

2021 - Down -0.0092% (Eh... I think I'm still going in the wrong direction...)

2020 - Down -3.5% (This got to stop!)

2019 - Down -3% (Smack to the face. In your dreams! Recover your head!)

2018 - Up 6% (Road to recovery?)

2017 - Down -8% (Opps!)

2016 - Up 13%... (Shy, Shy, Shy - Yes, its from K-Pop Twice's Cheer Up MV)

2015 - Up 88% (Double happiness!)

2014 - Tripled it! (Godlike!)

2013 - Doubled my trading account (Rampage!)