Shame! 4th losing year in a row...

Started 2022 with $10.78. 

Ended it with $10.43.

A loss 0f -3%...

Remember Game of Thrones Cersi Lannister's walk of shame?

Shame! (Bell rings)

Shame! (Bell rings again)

Shame!

2022 - Down -3% (Shame! Shame! Shame!)

2021 - Down -0.0092% (Eh... I think I'm still going in the wrong direction...)

2020 - Down -3.5% (This got to stop!)

2019 - Down -3% (Smack to the face. In your dreams! Recover your head!)

2018 - Up 6% (Road to recovery?)

2017 - Down -8% (Opps!)

2016 - Up 13%... (Shy, Shy, Shy - Yes, its from K-Pop Twice's Cheer Up MV)

2015 - Up 88% (Double happiness!)

2014 - Tripled it! (Godlike!)

2013 - Doubled my trading account (Rampage!)

Yet Another Money Losing Year!

 

They say 3 strikes and we're out!

Lucky owner of the trading fund is also me.  

If not, I would have fired myself as CTA (commodity trading advisor) for my futures account! 

I can't even beat those 1M65 CPF "eunuchs" (no baxxs)!? Talk about "malu" (shame)...

I lost 10 cents this year. 

Started 2021 with $10.88; ended the year with $10.78.

Or in percentages, its - 0.0092%

Had to use precision at 4 decimal places, if not can't even see the difference!

Normally I would have considered it a "flat" year - no win, no lose.

But that would be unfair to those long suffering victims whom I've poked in the past - especially the 1M65 CPF people. Wink.

Don't say I not sporting OK? Poke away!

I got 金钟罩，铁布衫; no worries.

Folks who like to throw rocks at glass houses must always be prepared for the blowback!

2021 - Down -0.0092% (Eh... I think I'm still going in the wrong direction...)

2020 - Down -3.5% (This got to stop!)

2019 - Down -3% (Smack to the face. In your dreams! Recover your head!)

2018 - Up 6% (Road to recovery?)

2017 - Down -8% (Opps!)

2016 - Up 13%... (Shy, Shy, Shy - Yes, its from K-Pop Twice's Cheer Up MV)

2015 - Up 88% (Double happiness!)

2014 - Tripled it! (Godlike!)

2013 - Doubled my trading account (Rampage!)

For context:

Another Money Losing Year - This Got To Stop!



OK, need to visit Waterloo Street Kwan Im Ma for celestial help, even though I'm atheist...

Now that's capitulation!

LOL!

Another Money Losing Year - This Got To Stop!

 

I'm down -3.5% for year 2020.

Started the year at $11.28; ended it at $10.88.

Eh... I wanted to breakout of my $11 to $12 hentak kaki band in recent years, but that's not exactly what I had in mind...

LOL! 

That's the the price we pay for Earn More. 

You want ZERO capital losses in nominal terms, please move over to the Save More camp.

To recap:

2013 - Doubled my trading account (Rampage!)

2014 - Tripled it! (Godlike!)

2015 - Up 88% (Double happiness!)

2016 - Up 13%... (Shy, Shy, Shy - Yes, its from K-Pop Twice's Cheer Up MV)

2017 - Down -8% (Opps!)

2018 - Up 6% (Road to recovery?)

2019 - Down -3% (Smack to the face. In your dreams! Recover your head!)

2020 - Down -3.5% (This got to stop!)

And to think year 2020 started so well.  I was almost kissing $12 during March 2020.

Oh well, I guess its not to be...

A broken clock can still get it right twice a day. I've even underperformed a freaking broken clock!!! 

"Malu" or what?

I am taking off the magi mee pot protecting my man-whore face (tunk chia one). 

Come everyone, you can throw eggs at my face.

 

Another down year for Trading 2019

Well, I'm down -3% last year.

Or lost $0.38 cents for 2019.



The easy thing about tracking my trading performance yearly is its simplicity. 

Just compare the 1st Jan 2020 financial statement of my trading account with last year's and I'm done!

Last year I started with $11.66.

Ended the year with $11.28.



For the last 3 years, I've been stuck between $11 and $12 - hentak kaki or what?

2013 - Doubled my trading account (Rampage!)

2014 - Tripled it! (Godlike!)

2015 - Up 88% (Double happiness!)

2016 - Up 13%... (Shy, Shy, Shy - Yes, its from K-Pop Twice's Cheer Up MV)

2017 - Down -8% (Opps!)

2018 - Up 6% (Road to recovery?)

2019 - Down -3% (Smack to the face. In your dreams! Recover your head!)

Like fireworks, I'm beginning to look like fizzling out... 

Flustered?

No.

In 2017, I was wrong and down -8%.

In 2019, I was totally wrong again. This time down -3%.

Let me indulge in an "Ah Q" moment - I've made progress.

Wink.

LOL!

Where I fall, where I stand up - My 2018 Trading

After my first losing year for 2017 where I lost -8%, all things being equal, I guess I can say I'm mildly pleased with my trading performance for 2018.

I've made $0.66 cents last year.

Or 6% gain on $11 capital for 2018.



Now for a bit of statistical manipulation to show how easy we snake oils can fool bei kambings.

If I were selling courses or subscription services, I will stress and highlight the swing from -8% loss to +6% gain.

Those "poor" in math may be tricked into thinking its a 14% super performance for a horrible year!?

LOL!



That's why I prefer to count in dollars and cents. Harder to manipulate. 

Is that why those skilled in fundamental analysis put a greater weight on reading the Cash Flow statements?

If you didn't know already - profit is just an accounting treatment.



OK, now to pour cold water and ownself poke ownsel!

As a trader, I find myself taking a much longer perspective than most so called retail "investors" who tend to get overly excited or pessimistic over their annual performances....

Some even track LONG TERM performance monthly?

Let's put into the perspective from where I've started with $1, then its easy to tell I've been treading waters for the past 2 years:

2013 - Doubled my trading account (Rampage!)

2014 - Tripled it! (Godlike!)

2015 - Up 88% (Double happiness!)

2016 - Up 13%... (Shy, Shy, Shy - Yes, its from K-Pop Twice's Cheer Up MV)

2017 - Down -8% (Opps!)

2018 - Up 6% (Road to recovery?)

$1 has turned into $11.66 in 6 years.

2 years ago, it was $1 turned into $12 in 4 years.

Hello, I'm still down...

And want to know what's more critical? 

I've lost 2 years.

Money lost can be recovered. Time lost is forever gone...

Youths may not fully appreciate this statement; "lau kok kok" old fogeys out there may understand it better. Wink.

P.S.  Newer readers who are interested to get the full context and perspective of my previous trading performances, you can click on the "Trading Performance" at the end of the blog post below.

Or find the "Trading Performance" tab under "My Interests" on the right side column of my blog. 

My First Down Year Since Turning "Pro"...

I've always taken a bit of pride in being "different" from the mainstream herd.

Me being left-handed, right-brained, and likes to play the role of the 2 dots in the Tao symbol and all that jazz...

Others lip-sync the tools shepherds impose on their flock like goals and KPIs; I sing the visions and dreams of land owners.  

That worked fine until today.

Everyone seems to be doing very well for 2017. All made money!

Idiot! 

And I have to be the only blogger to make trading losses for 2017?

I'm not really sure about the "pro" part, but what do you call a person who starts to trade full-time since the beginning of 2013?

Amateur full-time? Weird right?

I did self-appoint myself as a nano hedge fund manager didn't I?

So "pro" it shall be then.

LOL!

From $12 in 4 years, its now back down to $11 in 5 years.

I lost $1 for 2017.

Or -8% for those who prefer to count in percentages.

3 main reasons for my sub-par trading performance:

1)  Tailwind; headwind  

Last year, the USD unexpectedly strengthened after Triump's win. End 2016, USD/SGD was $1.40; now it has weakened back down to $1.34.

80% of my trading account is denominated in USD since I trade mainly futures nowadays; while 20% is in SGD for my Simsci hedges.

Last year got tailwind boost super! This year's headwind not so fun...

2)  Hedging costs money

This is the moment of truth to test my trading conviction for 2018.

If I've bought travel insurance for all my overseas travels in 2017, and I've came back safely, does that mean I'm flushing money down the toilet?

So should I continue to flush money down the toilet in 2018 with hedges?

Hmm...

3)  I traded poorly

You know what? Cut the bullshit! 

The 2 above reasons are merely contributing factors...

The main reason I lost money this year is I've traded badly. Period.

Cannot always blame the RNG (Random Number Generator) gods right? (Its a gamer lingo)

That's the advantage where client is me, receptionist is me, trader is me, buy side anaylst  is me, and nano hedge fund manager also me! 

I can spot my own bullshit as a client! 

Since my trading account didn't earn money, its a given there's no 20% performance bonus this year!

As for the 2% annual fee, I think I'll go bang table and ask the idiot fund manager to waive off this 2% fee for poor performance! Never make money still got cheek to charge me!?

Reflection

I've spotted something interesting. 

If this had been end 2013, by losing $1 during my first trading year, it would mean I've busted my trading account like 90% of the traders out there!!!

You can't remove the element of "luck" in trading.

See if you can relate my reflection to this old post of mine:

Sea turtles.

A Flat Pancake Trading Year

Oh well!

I guess the streak has to end some day, isn't it?

2013 - Doubled my trading account (Rampage!)

2014 - Tripled it! (Godlike!)

2015 - Up 88% (Double happiness!)

2016 - Up 13%... (Shy, Shy, Shy - Yes, its from K-Pop Twice's Cheer Up MV)

Tale of 2 halves

2016 started fantastic. Got played out as the trend reversed?

Then came mid-year where I thought surely this must be the one...

Nope. Got played out one more time... The market is such a tease!

Luckily, both times I got profit-stopped.

I'm not smart, but even I can take a hint from the price action the market is giving me!

Rather than be stuck in the middle of the ocean with my little sail boat with no winds, I decided to anchor myself back at the harbour. Safety first.

No wind at least I can still do my wine, woman, and song at the taverns that lined the harbour. Was pretty much on the sidelines for the 2nd half of 2016.

Then came mid-November for the US elections. Was positioned for a Clinton win but hey!

Lucky as lucky does!

Wrong but made money!?

Not one to look at the gift horse in the mouth so I cashed out.

A few days later, realised this Trump rally got legs! Jumped right back in.

And here we are. Up 13% for the year.

I guess can't complain. Was only up 5% before the US elections.

The extra 8% came within the last 6 weeks of 2016 - now that's trading for you!

I count in actual dollars

Accounting for my trading account is easy.

I funded it 4 years ago with $1, never took money out nor added new money in.

After 4 years, it has now grown to $12. (For the CNC precision machinists out there, its $12.43. Happy?)

From 11 baggers in 3 years to 12 baggers in 4 years.

Want to know something interesting?

In dollar terms, I made slightly more during 2016 than in 2013 - $1.40 versus $1.00.

Due to the low base effect for 2013, if we count in percentages, its an easy 200% smoke and mirrors spin!

Now you know why most who use fundamental analysis prefer to overlay the Cash Flow statements on top of the Profit and Loss and Balance Sheet statements. Wink.

Cash flow is much harder to fake. (But still possible. Just ask Toshiba shareholders)

That's it!

Closing my trading book for the year.

A flat pancake trading year. Move along now... Nothing much to see.

P.S.  For new readers who are interested in the backstory:

My Virgin 10 Bagger

A Good Year, A Great Trading Year

My Virgin 10 Bagger

Now why this didn't this happen when I had a full time job?

Idiot. Trade full time and at the "lovable" age of 48 then give me.

Hey! Don't look at me.

I've no clue whether this is causation or correlation...

Never look at gift horses in the mouth.

A quick recap.

I started trading full time 3 years ago. (That's how you manipulate statistics. Which year and month you chose as index 100 is key! Wink.) 

2 years ago I doubled my trading account.

Last year I tripled it.

And this year?

It's up 88%. (Nice pretty numbers or what? Double happiness; double playmates! Yes, its been that long...)

You know what's better than linear compounding? It's exponential compounding! And that 2 year streak just ended... (Talk about easy come; easy go... It ended just when it started to get exciting... I think got to stop with the sexual innuendoes!)

Is your Math good?

From what I've just said, some of you may spot 1 or 2 mathematical facts that may jump right at you.

1.  Yup. It's 11 bagger in 3 years - 1x2, then x3, then x1.88. (OK, I cheated. I rounded it down to 10 bagger as it sounds more powderful as a headline. Bite me!)

2.  In percentages, its up and down like a yo-yo; but in $ money terms, its growing year by year. And that's why I don't count in percentages.

If I told you I started with $1 in my trading account, and after 3 years I made $10, would you still have a "wow" in your mouths?

1 minute celebration

There! I've already taken the moment to cheer myself and gave myself a gentle pat on the back. Especially when 2015 wasn't a walk in the park like in 2014

Now I'll let it go.

The results of this year and/or previous years have absolutely no bearing on next year.

Letting go...

No trading goal settings for 2016

Sorry, no matter how "SMART" your investing or trading goals are, don't you find it silly to set goals on consequential results we have no control over?

Me? It's still back to the trading basics of focusing on my entries and exits - that's craftsmanship.

A Good Year, A Great Trading Year

Last year, I mentioned to coconut in the comments that I doubled my futures trading account for 2013.

This year 2014, I tripled it.


Yup, for those good in math, you will immediately realise I've got a 6 bagger in 2 years.

A small speculative trading account has turned into a respectable size. (I only wished my investment account had the same performance!)


Did I planned for it? Was it the result of my goal setting?

If you are asking these questions, you may want to pause and reflect got logic or not?


I can think of 2 possible explanations:

1.  Luck.

There are losing streaks, and there are winning streaks. I could just happen to be in a winning streak now. Better enjoy it while it last!


2.  Sharpening the saw

My secondary 2 Geography teacher Mdm Foo motivated us "slower" students by saying:

"Others study 10 minutes they understand, you need 7 hours to understand - so be it! Once you understand, there's no difference."

I never doubled or tripled my trading account when I had a day job. I guess I am not as brilliant as those who just spend 10 minutes a day can make money trading part-time already...

Maybe spending more time in improving my trading craftsmanshiip - the hands on kind as in improving my entries and exits - finally paid off? 


You "hao lian" show-off lah!

Maybe. Mouth in your face, you can say whatever you want.

For the past 3 years, when strangers ask what I do, I would say I am taking a sabbatical from full time work. 

From today onwards, I'll say I am a Trader.


I trade to achieve; I invest in order not to lose.