The Majority Are Still Wearing Masks Outdoors!?

 

I've been wearing my mask under my chin outdoors ever since the new Wuhan virus rules took effect this Tuesday. 

Its easier this way. Whenever I pop into a supermarket, hawker centre, or taking public transport, I just pull my mask up.

I've lost count how many times I've walked into the Toto booth or supermarket near my place, completely forgetting to put on my masks during the past 2 years!!! 

So embarrassing! 

Yup. After 2 years of "social conditioning", putting my mask on whenever I step out of the house still does not come naturally to me. And thank goodness for that!

Over the past 2 days, I'm pleasantly surprised that the majority of people still prefer to put on masks even when there are outdoors!?

You know what?

That in essence perfectly illustrates how we old fogeys veterans operate in the markets. And why we often underperform youths during a bull market.

Veterans who survived a harrowing -50% bear market often have the tendency to prepare for the next one.

The joke is we have predicted 13 of the past 4 recessions... Lol!

Hence you'll notice most veterans who survived at least 1 bull/bear cycle hardly get flustered whenever we have a sudden pull back in the markets.

Especially those who are strolling down the mountain. 

However, there are some extreme ones who still prefer to put on masks outdoors even when we don't have to...

And that's where I'm different from them. What would I do if I have no reason to get up in the mornings?

I prefer to join Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Stanley Druckenmiller, Jim Rogers, etc.

No, I'm not under any illusion I can copy their performances.

Ever wonder with their wealth and at their advanced age, why don't they just park their money into US TIPS (inflation protected bonds) and call it a day?

Evidently, investing/trading has never been a "job" for them. 

I suspect some hate investing/trading like their day jobs. So the first opportunity they can, they would FIRE and switch to the SAVE MORE path... The more PASSIVE, the better!

I don't know.

I'm just glad I can walk around these 2 days with my mask under my chin. Its so nice to be able to breathe freely again outdoors!!!

Diversification is for...

 

As with everything we read or learn from others, we need to understand the "essence" instead of just blindly parroting what others say...

Of course I diversify across different asset classes. 

Then again, for my equities investment portfolio, I don't own more than 10 stocks.  

To some, its too "diversified"...

To others, it may be too "concentrated"...

Compared to those retail "investors" who have most of their net worth concentrated into equities, but they are spread across 50 stocks or more. 

Who is more diversified?

Its quite easy to determine.

Did you panic or have sleepless nights beginning of March when Russia invaded Ukraine?

We all have different competences and pain thresholds.

Crash got sound.

Don't let the recent bounce go to waste if you realised you have taken on too much concentrated risks... Wink.

 

Finally No Masks Outdoors!

 

It's a start!

OK, masks are still needed indoors. That meant weekends I still have to put my mask on.

I can live with that!

As a snake oil, I'm used to putting my "in your best interest" mask on when facing customers anyways,

I just hope fellow Singaporeans will have the cow sense to their masks on while travelling in MRT or buses. 

But then, who am I kidding!? Just look how many still talk amongst themselves and on the phones while taking public transport...

For private car hires and taxis, I'm sure the driver will ask their customers to put their masks on during the ride. So no worries here. 

Although I'm not working in the travel related sector, feel a sense of relief for my service related brethren. 

Not gonna lie. 

There's a bit of guilt seeing how retail and F&B have more or less "recovered", yet through no fault of anyone, those who happened to worked in the tourism sector are still "suffering"... 

Hang in there! There's light at the end of the tunnel!

By the way, I still doing my weekly ART test every Saturday before I start work during the weekends. 

The ART kits were provided free of charge by the retailer I'm stationed in. 

Smart business move. You don't want one infected promoter/staff to infect the rest of the hired guns! We are already shorted handed as it is... Cost savings remember? That's why I'm not a fan of save more or austerity...

Of course on the outside, the PR spin its to "protect" our customers. Sure, if you say so...

Breathe.

Ah...

Use Cash Or CPF To Pay For Your Home?

 

Missing the forest for the trees...

That's how I feel whenever I read articles or blogs debating whether its better to pay for our homes using cash or CPF.

I know...  That's rich coming from me - a no study HDB street urchin - making fun of those who study too much until their thinking become "short, short, teh"...

Or focusing too much on "precision" at 2 decimal places when they should be focusing on multiples of $100K!

Let me explain.

First of all, the discussion is moot if you do not have enough cash to pay for your property purchase, 

Well, CPF it is then!

LOL!

That was easy!

Now let's pretend you are a high income earner and can easily afford to service your home mortgage entirely with cash, 

Plus you are a fan boy/girl of voluntary contributions to CPF. 

Does it make sense for you to pay your housing loan with CPF and then make voluntary contributions in cash?

Isn't it easier and less of a hassle to use cash for your home purchase?

Now that we have got the 2 low hanging fruits out of the way, let's focus on what's important and forget about sweating the small stuffs...

I did share in the past one of my ex-colleague lamented he paid $100K more for his resale HDB 5 room flat than his neighbour one floor down.

Exactly!

I can never understand all this fascination with CPF "accrued interest" or negative/positive cash sales.

In simple england, it simply means:

1)  If you use CPF to pay for your home, and after selling, if you can't pay back to CPF what you have withdrawn and the accrued interests comfortably, its simply means you were either "unlucky" or you suck at the property game. 

Your property can't even beat the CPF 2,5%...  (Would you "invest" in a stock just to make a 2.5% return annually?) 

2)  If you use cash to service your property purchase, I'll be easy on you. Let's use zero % interest and assume your cash has no opportunity costs.

After selling, minus all the stamp duty, legal fees, agent commissions, and what not; if you're under water, that would mean you suck even harder... Time to visit Waterloo Street Kwan Im Ma for her blessings?  

Money stashed under your mattress would have outperformed your property purchase...

Think about that for a moment.

Now do you see what's important and more priority when it comes to property?

Geographic Concentration

 

If you have to run road and leave everything behind, it does not matter whether your property is freehold or 99 year lease.

OK, landed properties will make a difference. Even if your home is razed to the ground, if you own the land, you can always rebuild on the same site.

Tough luck if you own an apartment as part of a condo or HDB that's bombed out...

How about CPF?

Not as if you can withdraw out first and run road right?

Even if you can return one day when peace is restored, what if the new regime has no intention to honour the "promises" made by the previous disposed regime?

Its the same for savings at our local banks too. How to take back our money when the banks no longer exist after the conflict?

It goes to show politics affects everyone. 

Which means during election time, we need to look beyond mundane local/local issues...

But then, how many Singaporeans care about geopolitics?

At the very least, fingers crossed we don't elect politicians like Biden and Harris in the US.

And you thought Trump was bad...

How To Make Money In Investing/Trading?

 

By SELLING.

I'll let you figure that one out yourself...

Timing, Luck, and What Might Have Been...

 

You know what?

If the current Ukraine war had happened 2 years earlier, Hing Leong would still be around. And making money hand over fist at the current oil prices!

The owner of Hing Leong got the direction of oil right, but got his timing wrong...

Similarly, if that Singapore nickel trading scam operator was "legit" and not a scam, those high net worth investors would be celebrating their windfall of a win! That's if they went long.

On the other hand, if they had shorted nickel, their investments would have turned into zero... 

Go big or go home?

If big daddy would to sell Chartered Semiconductor or NOL today, would they not have gotten more for their divestments?

Well, Warren Buffett didn't hope one day he'll breakeven on his lemons... Remember the last time oil went ballistic in 2008?

Even Warren Got Hurt By Oil Prices

Risk management is very personal.

Everyone is different.

Some may prefer to lick their wounds and walk away to live to fight another day...

Some will only stop fighting till they got taken out on a stretcher...

Some just want to make money.

Some prefer to be "right"...

The Math for One Day I'll Breakeven...

 

Hands up for those of you during your bei kambing days, honestly thought if we had a -50% loss on a stock position or at portfolio level, all we need is just a 50% gain to breakeven?

Math is hard right?

For those of you whose math is like mine, here's the shortcut above.

Actually, just memorise two will do:

1)  - 20% need + 25% to breakeven...

2) - 50% need + 100% to breakeven! 

Let our track records do the talking.

If you have lots of 2 baggers in your portfolio, then you've earned the right to tell others that if we can't stomach a -50% loss, we should never be in the stock market.

Alternatively, if you have a history of making lots of 25% gains, then you'll be comfortable with any plain vanilla -20% bear markets. They don't phase you.

All of us have our "uncle point". 

That's the capitulation point where we just can't stand the pain anymore and just throw the baby out with the bath water!!!

I've discovered my "uncle point" through crash got sound....

The trick is to get out way before we reach that point.

When Your Money Is Not Your Money

 

I don't think Russia expected it.

Now they know.

Your foreign exchange and gold reserves held at other people's banks can be frozen one!?

Then again, its not entirely new.

The Taliban last year discovered it too. But who cares right? Its so far away and does not concern most other countries.

Today's Russians have discovered what the Greeks, Cypriots, and Icelanders have faced in the past when they go to their ATMs to withdraw cash during times of distress.

Sure, money under the mattress is often ridiculed as money rotting away not earning a yield. You know, the Buffett definition of what's an "asset".

Then again, there's a reason why the Indians and Chinese are big buyers of gold jewelleries.

Both have similar 5,000 years history of wars, famines, and plagues. Regimes and empires come and go...

Got some "wealth" on our bodies and physically at home rotting away is like buying health or life insurance - just in case...