Saturday 18 March 2023

Don't Ever Say...


How to spot those "investors" who have decades in "retail investing" but actually are those "grey old lambs" that have 1 year "investing" experience times 30? 

"If this stock/listed company fails, Singapore will collapse too lah!"

Well, Credit Suisse is the no. 2 in Switzerland.

There's also Deutsche Bank but that's a story for another day... Rising interest rates in the Eurozone should help them out (for now). 

For those of us who went through Lehman 2008, remember AIG?

AIG was rescued, but the shareholders only got back 10 cents on the dollar.

The same for Silicon Valley Bank - the depositors were bailed out like those insurance policy holders at AIG, but if you were the shareholder or bond holder...

Then for our very own Hyflux, you'll see in the forums how some expected to be bailed out - thinking water is "strategic" to Singapore...

Bei kambings we don't say as it's their first crash got sound experience with major losses,

"Eh? Stocks don't always go up???"

But some who lost money in Hyflux have decades of "experience"...

How else to explain except first year experience times 30?

Equities and bonds are Earn More vehicles.

The problem is when we treat them as Save More vehicles...

Especially those who have been on the "passive" Save More path for decades. 

In their late 50s or 60s, flushed with lots of cash, suddenly feel they should Earn More as compared to their peers who made a lot more with properties or equities, they have fallen behind quite a lot... (Selective perception - only see those who made money, ignore those who lost until pants drop)

It's like the iceberg analogy. 

What you don't see when Earn More craftsmen made money are those chopped fingers (like Yakuza members), battle scars, and nights of stomach churnings when they bought while others sold; or sold while others bought...

Sure. Walk in nonchalantly with just a goal and a plan. 

Well, they worked for Save More, doesn't it?

Yup. It sure does!

But you forget. Save More most of it is within your control. Discipline anyone?

How many factors of Earn More are within your control?




  1. Smol,

    Deep Analogy. Make it simple. Easy to comprehend.


    1. WTK,

      There's a reason why all religions use parables.

      At school, we need to quote examples to score extra points.

      Snake oils like me have to know the art of spinning fairy tales ;)

  2. Earn more in cpf by topping up is within of our control. I can. You can!

    Earn more in CPFIS is never within our control. I can. You can? Chun bo

    1. CW,

      Topping up CPF is Save More - not Earn More.

      There's no need for brains, skill, or craftsmanship. You just need discipline.

      The danger lies in AFTER hitting 1M65, you either discover or to be told that's minimum PC requirement...

      5 more years to hit 1M65 is totally different from 20 years more to hit 1M65!!! (Anyone who can't see the glaring difference is not financially literate yet)

      Since snake oils or influencers can't make money peddling Save More vehicles, it's just a simple bait-and-switch routine to eventually steer you towards CPFIS Earn More vehicles - that's when shepherds can finally fleece fees and shear commissions from their flocks!!!


      Related party transactions and vested interests.

      Just like Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary was paid millions by FTX to promote FTX.

      Wonder how many of O'Leary's fan base knew that BEFORE FTX's collapse?

  3. One battle does not dictate the war. Is the commander that do.

    Whatever the strategies, one, is there a track records.

    Is the commander courageous? Courage is overcoming fear, not fearless. Is he wise, knowing when to stop pursuing enemy?

    If there is a lot of whining, maybe u need to switch camp.

    Recently, a friend shouted out to me about a bloodbath. I must be a bad commander, I am like what blood?

    The bigger US banks is what I bought when they reached 52 weeks low.

    1. Sillyinvestor,

      It's market timing, isn't it?

      Same company, same stock.

      Someone who bought ComfortDelgro at above $3.00 is already feeling the "bloodbath"...

      Never mind STI at above 3100 is not even close to bear market territory...

      Then again, those "lucky" bottom pickers who entered ComfortDelgro at $1.20 during the real bloodbath end 2008, are still sleeping soundly.

      Especially if we add the 14 years of collected dividends since as buffer or Panadol.

      ComfortDelgro has to go below $1.00 before its bear market territory for them to start feeling the burn...

      We lie to ourselves all the time.

      Some tell themselves we can't Market Time, so anytime is a good time to enter. Price of entry doesn't matter!!!???

      Yet it's the same folks who jump from one broker to the next just to save that last 2 decimal places in transaction costs....

      Or move CPF to treasury bills or fixed deposits just to earn that extra 1%...

      Penny wise; pound foolish?

  4. Hi Smol

    When the person says his profits is about 50% for the investments he sold, I will "judge" his background and normally just brush it off, baring I more or less know the person background . That's how "filtering" is

    When the person says just a few percent of profits, that's where you need to take note.

    That's where things get interesting, isn't it?

    The lower the percentage of investments sold, probably the sum is larger.

    Absolute numbers does count.

    1. Small Time Investor,

      For those who survived their first bull/bear cycle, we evolved from bei kambings to veterans with battle scars and missing digits.

      That's when we no longer so easily "baited" with percentages.

      "Show me the money!"

      Then again, it's not uncommon in our community where someone who drives a Mercedes receives financial advice from an influencer/financial adviser who takes the MRT or ComfortDelgro bus...

      At least snake oils make the extra effort to "look successful" with their rented Maseratis or Lamborghinis and Airbnb villas!


  5. Hi my friend, I read found your articles wise. would you mind to email me a hello to my email ( I am a BD manager from moomoo, and I would like to talk with you further about the potential partnership ya.


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