Thursday 30 March 2023

Crypto Monotheism Versus Polytheism


I don't own cryptos or shares of companies related to cryptos.

Hence, I'm not talking my own book here.

But I'm impressed with the price action of cryptos recently during the banking troubles in US and Switzerland. 

Aren't you?

I've noticed an interesting phenomenon amongst the crypto believers. There are 2 major camps - the Monotheists and the Polytheists.

The Monotheists believe there is only ONE true crypto. Everything else is just bullshit. 

The Polytheists believe in anything and everything. Just as long the story is compelling! 

As a crypto "atheist", I'll just stand aside and watch from the opposite bank with interest.

I mean even if you into crypto, it's something you ultimately have to resolve amongst the believers.

Crypto believers out there, are you a Monotheist or Polytheist?

It's like real life.

Even if you believed in religion, your fate isn't better than the atheists and agnostics out there if you died and discover,

"Shit! Wrong religion!"


Friday 24 March 2023

You Can't Avoid Risks - Even If You Save More


And that's the frustrating and super exasperating experience for risk averse savers, isn't it?

Imagine waking one day to discover there's a bank run on the bank you have most of your savings in!?

Or to learn the insurance company you have bought all your insurance policies from is going bankrupt?

And the kicker is you not even a speculator on the Earn More path!!!

Imagine telling your Save More family members they got to monitor the financial well-being of their banks and insurance companies (if CPF must follow Singapore's economy/population statistics)!?

They would probably tell you if they must do all these due diligences, they might as well just hop on the Earn More path and speculate on the shares or bonds of these financial institutions instead!!!

Wait a minute... 

Now that's a thought!



Saturday 18 March 2023

Don't Ever Say...


How to spot those "investors" who have decades in "retail investing" but actually are those "grey old lambs" that have 1 year "investing" experience times 30? 

"If this stock/listed company fails, Singapore will collapse too lah!"

Well, Credit Suisse is the no. 2 in Switzerland.

There's also Deutsche Bank but that's a story for another day... Rising interest rates in the Eurozone should help them out (for now). 

For those of us who went through Lehman 2008, remember AIG?

AIG was rescued, but the shareholders only got back 10 cents on the dollar.

The same for Silicon Valley Bank - the depositors were bailed out like those insurance policy holders at AIG, but if you were the shareholder or bond holder...

Then for our very own Hyflux, you'll see in the forums how some expected to be bailed out - thinking water is "strategic" to Singapore...

Bei kambings we don't say as it's their first crash got sound experience with major losses,

"Eh? Stocks don't always go up???"

But some who lost money in Hyflux have decades of "experience"...

How else to explain except first year experience times 30?

Equities and bonds are Earn More vehicles.

The problem is when we treat them as Save More vehicles...

Especially those who have been on the "passive" Save More path for decades. 

In their late 50s or 60s, flushed with lots of cash, suddenly feel they should Earn More as compared to their peers who made a lot more with properties or equities, they have fallen behind quite a lot... (Selective perception - only see those who made money, ignore those who lost until pants drop)

It's like the iceberg analogy. 

What you don't see when Earn More craftsmen made money are those chopped fingers (like Yakuza members), battle scars, and nights of stomach churnings when they bought while others sold; or sold while others bought...

Sure. Walk in nonchalantly with just a goal and a plan. 

Well, they worked for Save More, doesn't it?

Yup. It sure does!

But you forget. Save More most of it is within your control. Discipline anyone?

How many factors of Earn More are within your control?



Tuesday 14 March 2023

Deja Vu


Talk about volatility and whiplash!

A few days ago, markets were re-pricing higher interest rates for longer (no thanks to Powell), and now it's back to pricing in rate cuts before the end of this year!? 

For those of us who lived through 2000 and 2008, it's a bit like deja vu, no?

Over-priced tech and fears over the solvency of financial institutions - 2 in 1?


Mai lah!

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