Thursday 31 January 2019

Are you retail or industry insider?

I suspect you can guess I'm quite bored with the markets...

Nothing to do so go find friends to poke lor!

Sometimes it backfired big time! 

Like my recent feeble attempt to poke CW's grammar... Ouch! 

That is classic what my kindergaten teacher complained to my Ah Ma many years ago, "Your grandson himself don't know still like to teach others!?"

You can say I've not grown up or improved one bit... I'm still stuck at kindergaten level!


Oh! Must give CW a compliment. He let me off without giving me a slap. Hee, hee. He big hearted or what?

Either that or he has developed calluses against my "bau" nonsense! 

Then there was my poke to B when he swallowed what the newspaper wrote instead of trusting his own eyes. Newspaper can't make mistake one?


Where is the biggest public library in Singapore?

It was so funny.

Eh, no one cares or is counting the admin departments lah! Just include the floor area with books.

So, is the one at Bras Basah bigger or the new one at Vivocity bigger?

Remember a time when the most "valuable" section of a library was the reference section?

What happened to the reference section in our neighbourhood libraries for "retail" today?

Got Google people forget how old fogeys used to do "research". Wink.

Regular readers know all I've written above is just "foreplay". 

Where is the real poke?

Coming lah!

Some words used in common everyday language meant one thing, but inside the industry we use more specific industry terms as the common everyday words are just too vague... 

If not, how to tell who is "retail" who is "pro"?

Just take annualised returns for our portfolios.

Most just assume its IRR (Internal Rate of Return) and use the excel tool XIRR to calculate it.

IRR is actually quite black and white specific; annualised return is grey.

Eh? Are they not the same?

What if I tell you under "annualised return", there are 2 major computation methods?

One is Time-weighted (favoured by public fund managers)

The other is Money-weighted (which is IRR by another name)

I won't bore you with the specifics. You google yourself if you interested to know the differences.

But I'll give you a simple summary for you to ponder over:

Time-weighted returns measure how well the investor did at growing their assets over time.

Money-weighted returns measure how well the investor did with the timing and amount of inflow and outflow.

So the poke is not whether which method is better or more "superior".

The poke is what kind of investor are you?

Are you a long term or buy-and-hold investor?

Or do you practice market-timing with your entries and exits?


Sunday 27 January 2019


Wednesday 23 January 2019

School never teach...

Have you ever heard some of your friends or others saying it?

How about you yourself?

It says a lot about the person saying it, isn't it?

Friday 18 January 2019

So Easy Until Pros Are Shutting Down?

I call myself a Trader.

That's only to make myself sexier to the babes in pickup lines. 

I don't really believe in labels, but if it helps me to impress the panties off them, call me a man-whore also can!

Notice a psychological quirk that we do after buying into something that were sold to us?

We tend to "jio" others to do the same? (Politicians, marketers, and religion shepherds have taken full advantage of it)

It's as if we were suffering from cognitive dissonance or buyer's remorse... 

So, if we can "inspire", "influence", or "motivate" others to do the same as what we did, it suddenly felt a lot better? 

Often, you do this "sharing" not based on your own user experience or using your own words; you simply "parrot" the same sales spin that were sold to you. 

Don't bluff! You did it!

It's the herding instinct lah!

You didn't mean any harm; it just more comforting to know if die, all die together!

Have you ever read or heard me say because I like to trade, so should you?

The cheerleading you often hear from me is crash got sound!

Don't try how to know?

Whether the shoes fit your feet how would others know?

And I've always given trading its due respect - I treat it as a craft. 

If you say you can't tell the difference between a craft from a hobby or pastime, then you're even more dishonest to yourself than you think! 

What's the point of goal setting and planning if they were based on little lies you've spun for yourself?

Trading is definitely not for anyone and everyone. 

Its in the realm of Earn More. 

If you can Earn More, you wouldn't have the need to seek FIRE to escape, would you?

Talk about the irony!

Something to mull about this weekend:

SocGen Considers Shutting $4.7 Billion Prop-Trading Unit

P.S.  While you are at it, if you consider yourself an "investor", you may want to ask yourself why are you "condemning" trading when you have never tried it before?

Or if you have tried and failed in trading, are you not behaving like that cad whose girlfriend dumped him... Now go telling everyone his former girlfriend was a slut?

Now think for a moment how a skilled shepherd (snake oil) would take advantage of such human tendencies?

Tuesday 15 January 2019

No Christmas Rally How About CNY Rally?

Don't look at me!

I don't speculate base on calender effects...

Ask those who say they are value, long term, buy and hold "investors", yet when no one is looking, "curi ayam" from time to time. Wink.

The best are those eat finish never wipe lips, still dare to tell others don't speculate, don't gamble!?


Thursday 10 January 2019

Working 7 days a week

I've got to know another part-time weekend promoter at my weekend sales gig.

I've always thought he's my senior until last week; turned out he's one year younger than me!? 

OK, I'm no longer have "boink, boink" I am moisturised cheeks, but this promoter looks much more worned out and haggard than me... 

And I found out why.

Unlike me, he has a Monday to Friday technician day job. 

So plus his weekend sales gig, this promoter works 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year!

The only time he has any days off is when we have a public holiday - and that's provided its not over a weekend!

In case you don't know, there's only 11 days of public holidays in Singapore.

Writing here, I must thank the Christians for introducing the Day of the Sabbath to the modern world.

Before this 7th day of the week is a day of rest took root, imagine you were a servant for the landowner in feudal times, what weekends or public holidays!?

Yes, there were festivals then instead of public holidays, but you even more busy doing the preparations during the festivals!!!

What you got, if you were in China duing those feudal times, is maybe 15 days of "holiday" during CNY where you were allowed to return home for your family reunion. 

And that's only if you are a free person working for a wage; not an indentured servant or slave. 

This promoter is married with children.

I didn't want to pry too much,

Suffice to say if you can Save More, you are probably earning "enough". 

For those with family expenses that exceed their monthly salaries, the only solution is to Earn More. Especially when your salary is not high...

I've noticed if we only mingle and mix around this FIRE community, our sense of bearings can get warped and twisted if we are not careful...

Its a big echo chamber where you say something and your followers echo back, "Yalor, yalor!"

Pretty soon you probably think whatever you espouse is the holy gospel! Everyone should listen to you!

Pride, arrogance, and hubris least we forget... Just count the number of Indian Chiefs out there.

Some of the goals and aspirations shared don't make much sense outside the community. 

I've learned something talking with this promoter last weekend.

There's a stronger source of motivation out there than being financially free; love for family is much much more powerful and enduring.

Would you spend 7 days a week to come up with your own investing thesis or trading ideas?


You not really motivated in the first place, were you?

Monday 7 January 2019

Printcious - Your Precious Gifts

Its amazing what technology and a dash of entrepreneurial dreams can achieve.

Now we can design and order our own gifts online too!

Check out this interesting company from Malaysia:

printcious - your precious gifts 

Can print your favourite photos on T-shirts, mugs, mouse pads, and even phone cases!? 

Or personalise your thoughtful gifts to people that matter in your lives.

Ikan bilis retail order boleh no problem. Sedikit-sedikit lama-lama jiadi bukit!

Ikan besar bulk orders for corporate events also can! HR, you taking note?

For those of you "young-at-hearts" who still have dreams, I find the founders' story - a pair of twin brothers - most interesting.

Printcious is about never giving up.

Valentine's Day coming soon next month. 

Go knock yourself out!

Parents with newborns? Want to immortalise your baby's pictures on their bedroom walls?

Wednesday 2 January 2019

Where I fall, where I stand up - My 2018 Trading

After my first losing year for 2017 where I lost -8%, all things being equal, I guess I can say I'm mildly pleased with my trading performance for 2018.

I've made $0.66 cents last year.

Or 6% gain on $11 capital for 2018.

Now for a bit of statistical manipulation to show how easy we snake oils can fool bei kambings.

If I were selling courses or subscription services, I will stress and highlight the swing from -8% loss to +6% gain.

Those "poor" in math may be tricked into thinking its a 14% super performance for a horrible year!?


That's why I prefer to count in dollars and cents. Harder to manipulate. 

Is that why those skilled in fundamental analysis put a greater weight on reading the Cash Flow statements?

If you didn't know already - profit is just an accounting treatment.

OK, now to pour cold water and ownself poke ownsel!

As a trader, I find myself taking a much longer perspective than most so called retail "investors" who tend to get overly excited or pessimistic over their annual performances....

Some even track LONG TERM performance monthly?

Let's put into the perspective from where I've started with $1, then its easy to tell I've been treading waters for the past 2 years:

2013 - Doubled my trading account (Rampage!)

2014 - Tripled it! (Godlike!)

2015 - Up 88% (Double happiness!)

2016 - Up 13%... (Shy, Shy, Shy - Yes, its from K-Pop Twice's Cheer Up MV)

2017 - Down -8% (Opps!)

2018 - Up 6% (Road to recovery?)

$1 has turned into $11.66 in 6 years.

2 years ago, it was $1 turned into $12 in 4 years.

Hello, I'm still down...

And want to know what's more critical? 

I've lost 2 years.

Money lost can be recovered. Time lost is forever gone...

Youths may not fully appreciate this statement; "lau kok kok" old fogeys out there may understand it better. Wink.

P.S.  Newer readers who are interested to get the full context and perspective of my previous trading performances, you can click on the "Trading Performance" at the end of the blog post below.

Or find the "Trading Performance" tab under "My Interests" on the right side column of my blog. 

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