There are 2 groups of people who would shill it's pointless to do market timing:
1) The "too free" and no skin in the game academics; and
2) the sell-side investment snake oils targeting mainly retail clients.
Academics
Let's start with the obvious. In your financial freedom journey, the last thing you would want is to be like them. Correct?
No?
OK, name one academic that's your No. 1 fan favourite when it comes to Earn More/FIRE/Investing...
I'm not a fan of Warren Buffett (I like Charlie more), but I can't help but love the humorous "pokes" Warren and Charlie often make at the expense of the academics.
Not just the so called financial "wisdom" taught in Business Schools, but quite a lot of the management "bullshit" taught that don't quite make sense to Warren and Charlie (those that actually run businesses)!
For those who love to parrot what others say to appear "smarter", I mean, who dares to question academic thesis like the Market Efficient Theory; Time in the Market; Modern Portfolio Theory; etc?
But the awkward fact remains to top performing Hedge Funds and well-known investors (like Warren and Charlie) out there, most do the opposite!
Which makes intuitive sense... How can anyone outperform others if they just do the same as everyone else???
Ding!
Sell-Side Snake Oils
I feel embarrassed to even mention it.
I would think it's so obvious to everyone and anyone.
But the sad reality is that many have never worked in sales before, and have no clue what talking me...
Look, if I'm a competent sell-side snake oil, and I see risks of a market correction coming, I would advise my own family members, best friends forever, and best clients to raise cash and dial down risky positions.
But to new bei kambing retail clients, what you expect me to say?
Tell them don't buy? Come back to you after a market correction?
Like that who will pay for your mortgage next month?
Put food on the table tonight?
And allow you to bring your whole family to Europe this coming summer?
Of course, it's any time is a good time to invest!!!
P.S. Anyone would like to hazard a guess why I left out trading for this statement below?
"OK, name one academic that's your No. 1 fan favourite when it comes to Earn More/FIRE/Investing..."
Hi Smol
ReplyDeleteLong term capital management.
When it becomes too academic that it ignored one distinct human nature.
GREED/FEAR
Small Time Investor,
DeleteWhen "smart" people try to reduce human behaviours to mathematical models, the fatal mistake is to assume humans would behave "logically"...
We are not.
Anyone who has read human history would know.
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Hi SMOL,
ReplyDeleteAfter my business stint, I realized that there are many kinds of bloggers and blog readers.
Bloggers:
1. Wisdom bloggers ;)
2. Commercial bloggers. Those good at chopping carrot heads
3. Bloggers who treat their blogs as a journal. After building up an audience, they monetize; however, monetization is the least of their objectives
4. Quagmire bois/gals. Talk to them can get stuck in their namesake one hor
5. The ones identified in Macbeth: "Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing"
Blog readers:
1. The dragons
2. The bei kambings
3. Those who miss the point/can't see the high fliers operating in another higher realm
4. Those who keep pressing F5 on blog aggregators
5. The schadenfreude seeker
I observed the following interesting points:
- Bloggers belonging to group 4 and readers belonging to group 3 are contemptuous towards bloggers belonging to group 2. They read a lot, but somehow the biz model of bloggers belonging to group 2 fly over their heads....
- Those readers that lack a marketing/sales background will sometimes conflate bloggers who belong to group 2 and group 3 together. I find it quite sad that group 3 gets lumped together and blamed for nothing
- Blog readers belonging to groups 2, 4, and 5 often read bloggers belonging to category 5. No wonder their trading/investment prowess doesn't improve over time...
- Dragons are only attracted to groups 1 and 3. Now I know why! Shepherd/land owner recognize shepherd/land owner
Unintelligent Nerd,
DeleteTrust a psychology major to break it down so succinctly ;)
I personally break it down to hobbyist bloggers and commercial bloggers.
And some hobbyist bloggers are the ones who may do more harm to bei kambing readers,,,
1. The sincere and honestly want to do good hobbyist bloggers, but they actually no clue what saying them - they are L plate drivers themselves...
2. The psychopaths. Real life nobody, but find it exhilarating they can command and manipulate a flock of bei kambings.
We see these psychopaths popping up in Church, in RC, and other voluntary organisations - they always like to Indian Chief others what to do... Wield their little feather duster as excalibur...
Commercial bloggers do less harm as most astute readers will know they are merely making a sales pitch - willing buyer; willing seller.