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Thursday, 1 February 2018

Goal Posts Can Move Forward One!

Those of you who understood why CPF Life was introduced won't be surprised.

I mean you can see the trend in recent years. Not only in Singapore, but globally.

Personally, I believed the 60/40 event some years back did shock them to the core. Ever since, lots of "sacred cows" we thought will never be touched have been slaughtered...

Its interesting. Nothing is written in stone. 

The slow march towards collectivism continues...

We definitely need population growth!


  1. Before reaching 55; I have already seen goal post shifted 55 to 60, 62 and 65. Younger folks happily planning on retirement based on current view of goal post positioning.

    1. CW,

      Many will ignore since its like boiling frogs slowly...

      Wait till the majority of us live beyond our 90s and you'll see they turn up the heat until even the most "insensitive" frog will notice!

      Although I must say I'm a bit confused why they want to have more young people interested in the Budget?

      Wait the brighter ones stop voluntarily contributing to CPF how?

  2. probably in 40 years time when my cohort is there, the goal post might be shifted towards the 80s. Well, I would say that I’m not surprised as the living expectancy is much higher today and there is many that lived beyond 80s.

    Apparently, based on the statistics, the birth rate is far below what it used to be. I’d make a false assumption here today, that majority is living on their savings and pray that they’d die before they’re finished with their savings, it became an increasing concern that these people will be left ‘stranded’ when that happens.

    I’ve previously chanced upon a saddening post not long ago that one elderly uncle had completely finished his savings and waiting to die today, however, fortunately or unfortunately, he is still still breathing.

    Not everyone have kids, nor will everyone be so sure that their kids will be supporting them till their death. Not forgetting if their kids can’t even get their own businesses settled. Hence, these younger folks that are currently planning on their retirement might belong to the safer ones. The shifting of goal post or movement in markets is an uncontrollable factor beyond our means, so do our life expectancy. What we can do is to have control of factors such as savings rates and plans for retirement etc.

    A very interesting example from Japan - due to the unbelievable ageing populations, the younger ones are contributng to the government to feed them off. But this big question now comes in if the next generation workers will be able to do so for those that are contributing now or if it is even sufficient.

    1. Sillyinvestor,

      Its simple math.

      Not just Japan, US is another interesting "live" case study although US does not have an aging population yet...

      China is another one due to their one child policy. I've asked my Mainland colleagues who emigrated to Canada and Sweden why and the answers were similar - math.

      Of course plus the same reasons why some Singaporeans have emigrated - less stressful; less competitive; slower pace of life; etc...

      I now have a problem after my Chiang Mai scouting trip... I prefer cosmopolitan cities. What's the point of me jumping from the pot to the fire?

      I'm doomed!

    2. Wa.. salah name again. Later SI look for me and scratch my face!! :p

    3. sleepydevil,

      Another Freudian slip!

      Lucky you guy. If girl I game over liao.


      Sorry, sorry.

  3. I daresay that for >50% of the population, children are still seen as their retirement plan (whether consciously or unconsciously). Coz that's how the vast majority of elderly had & and are getting by today ... and this culture & experience is still seeped into current generations.

    Don't worry ... euthanasia will be promoted by 2030 ... poverty or lack of money can be classified as one of the terminal illnesses to qualify. LOL!

    Now authorities are trying to decriminalize suicide ... we've reached the tipping point where the costs & disruption to society of suicides are seen as being less than other potential "benefits".

    The only thing scary is having these culture & mindset changes occur in a paternalistic system where things are mandated rather than voluntary...

    1. Spur,

      You are darker and more macabre than I thought!

      I suspect you've been reading too much Batman Gotham City comics...

      However, I do agree with you on the dangers of ultra paternalism = fascism.

      Now people must be questioning what weed I'm smoking... LOL!

      Most people ignore the Eldershield thing as the premiums are quite "peanuts".

      I however was particularly bemused with this "compulsory" proposal.

      Big daddy never "forced" Eldershield on us. Even CPF Life they had to "pretend" to give us "choice" of plans to distract us.

      Let's see if big daddy will offer an opt-out clause if and when Eldershield version 3.0 is introduced to those in their early 30s ;)

  4. Back when Singapore men retires at 55, life expectancy was 76. The system need to support the old folk for 21 years.

    Today's life expectancy for men is 87. Thus, retirement/re-employment age is 67 and the system will support the old folk for 20 years. Those who wants to test the system can try to live till over 100.

    If life expectancy is 100 or more, retirement age would probably be 80+... To ease the system, they might legalize euthanasia. They might even provide certain benefits to encourage people to sign up.

    1. chewyc,

      Another Batman reader!

      Well, I hope euthanasia is "voluntary" and not "compulsory"!

      All of sudden, I think my bet we will hit 10 million is a brighter option ;)

      I mean reitrees can rent out their spare rooms; those who own retail REITs will smile knowing people have to eat and shop; businesses will be happy no labour shortage; and big daddy ecstatic with the increased tax revenues and new blood to support propery prices!


    2. chewyc,

      Its not a ploy to me.

      Both will have to go up irregardless. Unless we are OK to be a 2nd or 3rd tier cosmopolitan city? I don't think so...

      I think Singaporeans have the memory of a gold fish.

      Everytime before elections, they will give out goodies; after elections they will recover some of the goodies back.

      Its the same pattern over and over again.

      A bit like our hawker centre upgradings. We appreciate the newer, more comfortable lighting, fans, and cleaner surroundings; but we also know what's coming next ;)

      Hence its better to be mammals than reptiles. This way, we don't have to get too excited over some cashbacks; free miles; extra 1-2% interests with free hoop jumping thrown-in; and so on ;)

      And its more fun to be a nonchalant cat than an obedient dog...


  5. Hi SMOL,

    I have a front row seat observing the 黄左 weaving their tapestry.

    Now, for some music to go along with it.

    1. Unintellent Nerd,

      I can bet Western-educated Singaporeans have no clue what's 白左 and 圣母...

      Ya har! You're on the front row with all the social surveys you do ;)

      I'm so used to "pay-our-own-way" of lao lee's way that these little changes are so interesting.

      The day big daddy capitulates and introduce Minimum Wage is the day we know Singapore has become "ordinary"...

      Oh no! Slow rock I like; but not heavy metal... Noise!


  6. Hi smol,

    Who know what will happen in 30 years time when my cohort time is up. We try our best to live and work. Have cpf, insurance and etc.

    I let God decide what happen to me then.

    I believe I belong to the poorest of the financial bloggers buy perhaps already part of the top 30% in terms of population financial stability.

    Yet, there is so much call to increase financial literacy, discussing options to safety net. etc

    Makes me wonder the bottom 30 percent perhaps should be panicky already?

    Actually it is not financial stability that I yearns, I want the good life of FD ... It's greed more than anything else. Not to say those who pursue are greedy, it is a worthy goal, I am talking about myself, after living in denial for so long.

    I dun just want to be a good investor, I want to be a celebrity blogger worshipped for investment acumen. Nothing ashamed about it, I still want it but just readily admits it's vanity more than anything else and I enjoy some of the vices

    So cpf or not, I think I am more worried about how I aged and die than how much is enough to last till.i die.

    I worried I lost the spirit to live a meaningful life more than anything else when I aged

    1. "sleepydevil", (got to balance things out a bit OK?)


      If we got time/inclination to pursue financial freedom, that meant our lives are quite comfortable already.

      When one is struggling to stay afloat, its quite condescending when "know-it-all" tells us we must invest or else...

      First things first. Its more important to get a marketable skill/competence, stand on our own 2 feet, get our own place, then when there's "extra" left over, there's all the time in the world to explore "investing" for the future...

      Don't get too ahead of yourself. What when I aged???

      Ask whether you are living a meaningful life NOW ;)

      Tomorrow may never come...

  7. Nothing is constant or static or sure except death & taxes in this world.

    Do we have a choice not to adapt to our environments and circumstances?

    But we adapt even to CPF very differently.

    The city cats will definitely have many more choices then church mouses.

    The rich & powerful always one up on us the common people, naturally.

    1. temperament,

      Yup. Our peers who are still working are now doing their best to adapt from a paper qualifications to skills/competence based economy.

      And one where new technology can be quite disruptive.

      The balance of influence has swung towards youths with energy and ideas over old fogeys with decades of job experience :(

      Lucky trading has not changed much over the years - its still buy low; sell high :)

  8. Hi all,

    The best approach is to maintain an open mindset. Do not place all the eggs into one basket. Diversification is the way to go!


    1. Ben,

      That's what the super rich Chinese Indonesians do - one son in New York, one daughter in Hong Kong, that nephew in Beijing, and that cousin in London ;)

    2. SMOL,

      In addition, low profile is the way to go. "Act Blur, Live Longer".



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