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Friday, 23 February 2018

I wish I can swing it both ways!


I'm not coming out of the closet to declare I wish to be bisexual, silly!

Its about trading!

I've read the Market Wizard series and I'm so impressed with those traders and hedge fund managers that can swing it both ways.

They have a position on.

Market moved against them.

They cut loss.

But the difference with other mortals is that same time they got out of their money losing positions, they are able to "switch" and put on the same position in the other direction!?

Talk about making lemonade from lemons!

Now that's cool!

To be able to turn a money losing position into a profitable one!!!

Least some of you think its "easy", I must share I tried to do it a few years ago with the USD/JYP trade.

I got stopped-out on both directions!

That experience so damaged me mentally that I couldn't trade for the next several weeks.

Recently, I am happy I got profit-stopped in my Simsci short positions. I didn't let a profitable trade turned into a loss.

Although I am quite confident STI will retrace back above 3400, I just can't bring myself to go "long" the Simsci.


STI went above 3500 now. 

If I had been able to swing it both ways, I could have made the same profit up similar to on the way down too...

Its my mental block. That's something I am working on.

Today, I can only do the wash, rinse, and repeat trades.

Go in the direction of my bias, when the move looks exhausted, get out and wait for the retracement to re-enter into the same trade again.

I can only go with the flow as in Trend Following; I can't do counter-trend trades.

That's the difference between hobby and craft.

Hobby happy or make money can oredi!

Craft? Its not about beating others or winning recognition. Nor its always about the money. But money is important as a feedback mechanism.

It's about beating yourself up, putting yourself through pain, and being uncomfortable.

All for that ephemeral sense of accomplishment when we discover what we cannot do some years back, now we can do it skillfully.

It's like learning a new language, do public speaking, or running a marathon.


  1. I don't know how to swing in both ways; but I know when to hide under hard rock and peeping out from the gap to know it is going to be winter

    1. CW,


      That's why old fogeys will underperform youths around this time.

      Youths just buy the dip and win again!

      What winter youths ask?

      Make hay while the sun is shining!

      Its still summer!

  2. SMOL,

    Don't tell me you've some unconscious deep dark desire to see markets crash! LOL!

    Usually our experience shapes our bias. Maybe all along you used SIMSCI futures as hedging against downtrends, so much so that going long just seems weird?

    Got an idea for you --- maybe when SIMSCI trending up, you can flip your screen upside down ... Hey presto!! Bias-ness solved!! LOL!!!

    Ehh, trend following also applies to both long & short. Just depends on your time frame, and being able to identify the main trends versus counter trends ... as well as recognizing times of whipsaws and rangebound.

    I also have similar bias as you, just on the long side haha!! Still only about 1/3 back into risk assets... if markets hold up, probably will be mostly invested again by next week.

    A whipsaw for me ... but a very tradeable event for those trading shorter timeframes! LOL!!

    I tend to give myself excuse like my strength is in the medium-long term timeframe, not short-term day trader style. Or that equity-related short instruments like reverse ETFs, DLCs, CFDs either are terrible for long-term shorting or have carrying costs.

    Maybe I should put on my white belt & enter the trading dojo for some ass-kicked experience ... at least learn how to protect my ass! LOL!!

    1. Spur,

      I bought most of my core investment holdings in 2009/10. Now why would I be adding to them right now at double/triple the prices I paid?

      I'm not there yet to Trade with No Mind.

      I've a Global Macro Top Down view, then I trade with that wind behind my back accordingly.

      Why would I hedge if I think STI can go up 50% further from here?

      I've got to protect my investment capital since I can't go 100% all cash like you ;)

      I need to be partially vested to pay for my lifestyle remember?

      Its nice going to sleep knowing I have reserves; this I steal with pride from big daddy ;)

      Do that! Going to the Trading dojo is to learn how to fall without hurting yourself!

      With repetitive practice on buying and selling, it can only help our medium and long term investing game ;)

      And another tip: Take on students stronger than you!

    2. Kekeke! So you use large amount of cash or near-cash to hedge ... tot u use futures ;)

      Since I'm a psycho investor who uses trends to hedge, I'm usually either 90% in strong growth/momentum assets or 100% in cash 😱

      The last time i had to go all cash was in jan 2016...

      Been a fun ride since boarding the crazy trend train in 2010 lol!

      But very boring when long steady trends in place, like most of 2015 and all of 2017... nothing to do...


    3. Spur,

      I've shared in the past for my investment side of the portfolio, I use cash as "ballast". Fully invested was around 2010.

      Then its a matter of taking money off the table whenever we have a melt-up ;)

      I don't have a day job now. How else to raise cash when the next shoe drops?

      As for the trading side, I use the Simsci to hedge my portfolio.

      Lucky, its profit-stop - make money.

      Unlucky its stop-loss - hedging its like buying travel insurance, flushing money down the toilet if we come back safe...

      So if my trading account loses money on hedging, that meant my investment portfolio will...

      And vice versa ;)

      Hedging is not foolproof.

      The biggest nightmare is STI goes up, but my core holdings went down. Like those who bought ComfortDelgro, SPH, Starhub, Singtel, etc...

      Simsci hedge lost money; portfolio also lose money!!!

      That's where cash comes in ;)

      Its a hedge against my Simsci hedging and my very own stupidity (or bad luck)!


  3. on the dot!

    this in fact is one of the very basic skill a trader must know to be consistent.

    one way to make it easier to do is to tell yourself that your opinion of the market is screw up, f*** type!

    remember, "no body can predict the market, who you think you are"?

    1. if you want to play golf and play it well, use 2 hand instead of one! thasts how important it is to swing both way!

    2. and to be honest with you , you better know how to swing both ways if you want to stay in this game long term.

    3. coconut,

      I deserve it.

      See lah!

      I poke others that its better to fly with 2 wings - buy (long) and sell (short).

      Now kenna poked back I must use both hands to golf? Who plays golf with one hand anyways?

      I got kicked out of the 10% club last year... I have every incentive to improve my game by swinging both ways!

      Although I not very sure its a very "basic" skill like you say...

      You trying to use 激将法 on me?


      You good company to keep. Got kick people one! I'll improve if I stick with you ;)

      Better than those "kind sould" when we say we must improve, tell us no need to try so hard, we very de good already! Stay with such people we'll never grow :(

    4. are you doubting your own feeling about swinging both ways?

      as a trader you must not stick too much of your own opinion, it is the market action thats count! sometime we got it right but sometime we don't, it is the don't get it right that we almost always lost more money than we are right, or worst, missing an profit opportunities, if we can't change our opinion when we are wrong, nothing on earth can help us, we are guarantee our failure!

      if not convence, continue to trade til you get it in your heart.

    5. coconut,

      The only "doubt" I have is whether my england writing so bad, or is it your england comprehension skill...

      I thought I just gave you a compliment? LOL!

      Of course its a skillset I want to acquire. I don't want to be a one trick pony ;)

      I prefer to trade with the wind behind my sails. That's Trend Following mah.

      We both know the market does not go in a straightline (OK, 2017 is an exception), there will be retracements along the way.

      Just thought instead of using retracements to add to my winning positions, I can also trade with the retracements too!

      This type of "I am right" swinging to the other side is "easier", I am practicing with it now.

      The harder swing to the other side type is when I'm 100% wrong!

      Imagine not only just able to take a quick loss (this I can do), but to be able to switch and swing to the opposite side and turn my loss into a winning trade!?

      This kind of mental flexibility and honesty I'm not there yet.

      Just bemused when you say its a "basic" trading skill...

      I like it when your standard is higher than mine!

      I hope you'll come and challenge me more!!!

      I'll never grow by mixing with the Buy and Hold crowd ;)


    6. ok understand, i'm not challenging you nor anyone, just talk about what i know and don't know about my trading.

      trading is a zero sum game, so should make it very simple to trade, what is easy or difficult to execute on trades is just our mental state where we put winning on top of everything else. take that away and very thing will becomes much easier!

    7. coconut,

      I like the way you talk with no "filtering" - you say what you think!

      Of course if you say this to someone you've met for the first time, you may "offend" them ;)

      People say they want to improve a "difficult" skill, you come say its very "basic" and "easy"... LOL!

      We've been together here so many years here. I appreciate your comments here.

      Ladykiller has left, Jac only comments once in a year or two. You're the only fulltime trader like me at this watering-hole :(

      Would be nice to have more fulltime traders come and banter with us.

      That's why I added this "Trading R' Us" interest ;)

  4. Smol,

    Everyday I see STI Cheong, everyday I see my portfolio sink or just float, even if my thesis and prediction of it qartwes results is correct.

    Its damn pissing.

    U feel.like just selling everything and become a hermit


    U got the direction right and u win is nortal, I get the reasons right but I dun win, I am suay Ka


    1. Sillyinvestor,

      STI is driven up by the 3 bank stocks ;)

      Most other STI component stocks are well off their 52 weeks highs :(

      If our portfolios do not have any of these 3 bank stocks, well, that's "underperformance" for you!


  5. Bear Market=Buy, buy......

    Bull Market=Sell, sell.....

    Time=Day, days , months, or years.

    Trading & Investing so much difference meh?

    At the end of the day, are U still in the game we all play in our own ways?

    1. temperament,

      Well, most retail investors do the opposite. Buy during bull; sell during bear.

      You tell me.

      You're the one who keep saying you can't trade...

      Evidently there's a difference to you ;)

      Whether that's a Mind thing, or whether its a Method thing...

      You decide!

    2. Neither one can stand alone.

    3. temperament,

      Yup. I think so too!

      The Method, Money, and Mind are not 3 discrete mutually exclusive spheres...

      To me, they are one big fuzzy ball mixed up together.

      Who we are will naturally determine the money management technique and types of vehicles and time frame we are drawn to.

      We separate it to make explanation easier ;)

  6. Hi Jared,

    It’s me again in this watering hole hehehe

    I have to admit. I belong more to the ‘buy and hold’ camp than Trading R’Us. But back in 2017, I wanted to learn trading, and I ventured to an insane arena to pick up that skill and learn about TA and what trading exactly is. You know what my SL is back then hahaha. My tuition fee I’m willing to pay!

    Huge reward, low fees. Yes you’re right, extremely high risk and market driven heavily by speculators. Probably I need a bigger balls..

    Till today, I believe that I’m not a good trader, but by a twist of fate, the ‘trading income’ pulled out a huge victory for me in Sleepydevil Limited’s FY2017 Financial Statement. Beginner’s luck really pulled off well.

    I learnt that - Tho in the same game, we must know our game play in each ‘position’. Just like Uncle CW’s slogan - Create wealth through long term investing and short term trading. Seemingly it’s a really handy playbook!

    1. sleepydevil,

      I can hazard a guess your "Buy and Hold" thesis was something you got from "outside" in?

      And you have not experienced your first -50% bear market yet ;)

      That's nothing wrong. Its how we learn at school. Someone tells us that's how the world works.

      Unitl we start our first day job...

      That's when we discover the differences between practical day to day rubber hits the road reality versus academic theories!

      And the meaning of your mileage and my mileage differs!

      I like what you are doing.

      Having an opinion based on parroting what others say, and experimenting it for yourself and coming to your own reflection is not the same ;)

      Do experiment with money you can lose with different poisons and time frames. How else to know what "food" you like or dislike? And which are agreeable and not agreeable with your stomach?

      Who knew?

      Maybe you'll come full circle back to Buy and Hold?

      But this time, you'll not quote who said this or that. You'll say this is what I, sleepydevil, choses ;)

      P.S. You'll be surprised how many people who have never been to Japan, are not shy to give their own "reviews" on that country!?

      And its all based on "reading" the reviews others have written...


      Now that you have stayed in Japan longer than most package tour tourists, you'll be able to spot when other open their mouths, whether they are "parrots", "bullshitter", "data point of one", and those who have studied and worked in Japan just like you when you're back ;)

      Data point of one is poking those who went to Japan for a week all of sudden become "expert" in Japan.

  7. Hi SMOL,

    I'm also undertaking my own journey to learn to ride on a trend. Counter trending is more intuitive for me, so I'm learning to over-ride that instinct. I think it's important to master both sides, because while on the surface they look contradictory to one another, they are actually complementary.

    I learnt how to short while learning counter trending, but I don't do shorts. Learning that allows me to know when it's time to stop buying or take profit or just simply stand aside.

    Good luck on your journey :)

    1. LP,

      Thanks! Let's have fun pushing ourselves out of the shade of the umbrella and into the sun!

      You paint with ink; I paint with words.

      Always a pleasure chatting with a fellow artisan ;)


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