like this song, i feel really terrible about the future, i'm not a crazy bear.
in the 20s many knows the stock market crash but no body expected the great depression. well this time is quite similar. we have the 08/09 crash but did anyone suspect we are heading for a depression? a prolong economic downturn world wide?
but that does not mean we cannot trade stocks. it will not break 08/09 low i guess.
I made a small buy 2 fridays ago for a defensive counter that will go ex-dividend next week with a 4.9% semi-annual yield (annualised 9.8%).
The trade was "right" - based on the information I had at that time, but the weekend US debt got downgraded by S&P, I knew I bought "early" - it's now under-water by 7% - not yet hit my 10% cut-loss point :)
That trade was my "advance party" - 1/3 of my planned buy. I have 2/3 bullets left allocated for this stock.
Before this round of "correction", I was already 35% in cash. And as one of my major core holdings will be "enbloc" soon, that will leave me 60% in cash. I thought this buy-out will come next year; so was pleasantly surprised - not that I am complaining!
The buy 2 Fridays ago was meant to balance my core defensive and dividend holdings back to 50% equities. I am now 1/3 committed into the planned 10% equities rebalancing.
I have been planning for this "correction" since Dec 2010 - talk about being too early! The March Japanese tusnami "dip" turned out to be a "head-fake" - lucky I didn't buy into it!
My past mistakes and lessons are paying dividends now. I don't ask questions now. I just wait and ACT - when the opportunity arises :)
think this way, interest rate is "zero", stock yield and corp bond are at 4-10%, why so stupid not to buy and keep money in safe? but stock market does not function this way, neither does it respond to economic performance.
if you have invested its ok, hold on to it, 10% is yummy. learn to sit tight and love your losses and look for other cheap buys.
by the way i added 1 more shorts this week. i have to pay i think 5% dividend to the buyer! not receiving them. its a short term trade i wouldn't care about paying.
this is my guide though it depends on market condition at that time, i use STI as marker, i like to see at least a 50% correction in them before i start buying.
3300- (3300-1500)/2 = 2400. (STI index) at least.
of cos its just a guide and i might change it if i'm wrong in the direction.
wow no need to do that, but thanks haha.
ReplyDeletelike this song, i feel really terrible about the future, i'm not a crazy bear.
in the 20s many knows the stock market crash but no body expected the great depression. well this time is quite similar. we have the 08/09 crash but did anyone suspect we are heading for a depression? a prolong economic downturn world wide?
but that does not mean we cannot trade stocks. it will not break 08/09 low i guess.
i see you opening up your wallet thats why i wrote this. can we buy, ofcos we can but we gonna sit on it for a while. take your time to do it.
ReplyDeletewe are deleveraging, debt redemsion, restructuring, regulatally everywhere. its going to reach us eventually.
like owing money to the "along", they will keep knocking our door until we pay up.
and make very sure we use cold hard cash to buy, not borrow or emergincy money.
ReplyDeleteThanks Coconut!
ReplyDeleteI made a small buy 2 fridays ago for a defensive counter that will go ex-dividend next week with a 4.9% semi-annual yield (annualised 9.8%).
The trade was "right" - based on the information I had at that time, but the weekend US debt got downgraded by S&P, I knew I bought "early" - it's now under-water by 7% - not yet hit my 10% cut-loss point :)
That trade was my "advance party" - 1/3 of my planned buy. I have 2/3 bullets left allocated for this stock.
Thanks to Coconut's concern, I would like to share my "context" to share why it's futile to ask others: "Have yoy bougth?" or "Have you sold?"
ReplyDeleteUnless you know the whole picture, there is danger of falling into the 4 blind men describing an elephant "trap".
Before this round of "correction", I was already 35% in cash. And as one of my major core holdings will be "enbloc" soon, that will leave me 60% in cash. I thought this buy-out will come next year; so was pleasantly surprised - not that I am complaining!
ReplyDeleteThe buy 2 Fridays ago was meant to balance my core defensive and dividend holdings back to 50% equities. I am now 1/3 committed into the planned 10% equities rebalancing.
I have been planning for this "correction" since Dec 2010 - talk about being too early! The March Japanese tusnami "dip" turned out to be a "head-fake" - lucky I didn't buy into it!
My past mistakes and lessons are paying dividends now. I don't ask questions now. I just wait and ACT - when the opportunity arises :)
think this way, interest rate is "zero", stock yield and corp bond are at 4-10%, why so stupid not to buy and keep money in safe? but stock market does not function this way, neither does it respond to economic performance.
ReplyDeleteif you have invested its ok, hold on to it, 10% is yummy. learn to sit tight and love your losses and look for other cheap buys.
by the way i added 1 more shorts this week. i have to pay i think 5% dividend to the buyer! not receiving them. its a short term trade i wouldn't care about paying.
ReplyDeletethis is my guide though it depends on market condition at that time, i use STI as marker, i like to see at least a 50% correction in them before i start buying.
ReplyDelete3300- (3300-1500)/2 = 2400. (STI index) at least.
of cos its just a guide and i might change it if i'm wrong in the direction.
So you are the one pushing down my 5% yielder! $@%!^&*!
ReplyDeleteLOL!
Win-win. You make money first short-term; I make later in 12 months. No conflict!
i hope it not start with an A, a property stock haha.
ReplyDeleteHeng ah!
ReplyDeleteMine starts with M.