Thursday 27 December 2018

Wow! Now that's volatility!

Compared to 2017, I guess 2018 is another beast altogether!

Just look at the price action in the US on Christmas eve and on Boxing day! Whiplash!

Remember early Jan 2018 some smart ang moh guy said in Davos if we are holding cash, we would look pretty foolish?

Well, that's investing for you!

Still think its different from speculation and gambling?

On that note, I hope one day I'll be good enough to join the successful speculators club.

You know, like those brilliant (or lucky) folks who bought Bitcoin at USD$1,000 and sold everything at USD$15,000.

Shorted Keppel at $12.00; covered back at $7.50.

Bought WTI crude futures at USD$30.00; sold at USD$60.00. 

Shorted First REIT at $1.40; covered back at $1.00.

Yup, all the above were some of the opportunities I've missed under my nose. And that's coming from someone who does it full time... Ouch! Talk about eggs on my face!

Its never about the nouns - whether you're an investor, speculator, or gambler. Its always about the adjective.

Next time if you feel like being holier or superior than thou just because you call yourself an "investor", reflect on what's the point if you are one of those one day I'll break-even investors versus successful speculators and money winning gamblers?

Of course you weren't like this from the beginning. Someone put those silly ideas into you.


Well, if you parted with more than a thousand dollars, at the very least you should walk out all pumped up, "If I think I can, I can!"

Those who have attended prosperity gospel churches, political rallies, motivational talks may spot the similarities. Its all same same.

Never underestimate the power to manipulate, influence, inspire others!

Now you know why there's no shortage of shepherds (with sheep fleece) most willing to inspire and motivate you!



  1. What a way to end off what has been a very difficult year.

    1. Macroanalyst,

      The trouble is we have to wait till next Monday for the year to end :(

      This December is one of those rare years which we did not have a Santas Claus rally...

      Oh well, hope there are enough vested institutional fund managers who care about their year end performance to play their part to do a last minute window dressing?

      But going the price action in recent days, I wouldn't hold my breath.

      Can't wait for 2018 to end so I can start afresh for 2019!

    2. Yeah, let's hope 2019 is a better year.

  2. Anyone made huge gains last two days?

    1. CW,

      Don't look at me!

      I must admit I'm cluelss when it comes to one day up, one day down kind of markets :(

  3. Smol,

    That's why I dun really think I want to talk about returns ...

    But I do think the journey is worth it in more than 1 way.

    I am.not too sure net net did I make a gain or loss ...

    I did calculate ROA and while it is positive for several years, I never calculate unrealised profits or loss in the overall scheme of things.

    Frankly, i am not too concerned now. I used to be very bothered about what u say about losing money (realised or unrealised).

    I think I would only know when I execute the whole plan. I am.going up mountain, so I need to buy on the way down. And my portfolio will inevitably be negative.

    Nonetheless, investing makes me more knowledgeable and broaden my perspectives. Not in terms of investment acumen but I do think the commercial world And business plans are interesting.

    Even when I go shopping and working, I see things from both a consumer and business owner lens. It's cognitively stimulating, for me.

    Also I make some new friends in this circle, like u and LP etc. It's more than worth the net loss if u ask me

    1. Sillyinvestor,

      I sense "denial"...

      But your journey; your own reflections.

      I guess you have yet to experience capitulation. I did.

      Suffice to say some of the things you said is what we veterans have promised ourselves NEVER to repeat again.

      If you are treating investing like a business, you would not have said what you said.


      That sounds like the language of passive indexing...


    2. On Hokkien it is known as Eye close close is okay liao.

    3. Well, Smol,

      U quite well be right. But I think I pass the test this time. No excessive urge to explain, because I didn't really experince capulalate yet.

      Just a quiet let time and results speak for itself ba

  4. What you mentioned are those like 'I wish I can turn back time' moments. Missed opportunities. :(

    Shepherds always preach by showing people 'you could do this do that and earn big bugs' using past data. As I dabble into trading, I realised it is so easy to look back and say 'ah... this are the points I should have bought, these are the points I should have sold. Why didn't I catch these signals..?".

    And talk about changing perspective - if we are going up mountain, we should buy on the way up and not tumble with the crowd. :P

    In this wildly swinging market, the usual 'trend trading' are well out of the window. I have to keep trying new strategies.

    Hope you have a wonderful 2019!

    1. Opps! Should be 'earn big bucks'. :P

    2. Rainbow girl,

      All of us will be millionaires if we "horse behind canon" when it comes to trading... LOL!

      The "false shepherds" can't either.

      That's wby they have to burn their evenings and weekends to "inspire" their flock ;)

      Same logic. If we are enjoying and doing well in our corporate day jobs, do we need to give tuitions in the evenings and weekends to earn a bit of "extra" income?

  5. Hohoho!! Santa Claus is drunk and smoking (newly US legalised) pot this year LOL!

    I made 2 nibbles of QQQ during Halloween & Thanksgiving with a view to hold till next Apr/May. Now is -6% .... crap! LOL!

    For dual momentum portion (currently holding US large caps), as I only look at month-end signals, most likely will be 100% cash by early Jan. Don't think Santa will give a +8% boost to either S&P500 or STI on New Year's Eve, hohoho!

    As for my longer-term trend portion (mostly Asian ETFs), I've moved to 2/3 cash during 2nd week Oct. Don't ask me why not 100% cash as even the longer trend signal has been hit ... guess I'm still a bit of old fashioned buy & holder! LOL!

    1. Spur,

      Ah! Playing the calender sell in May and go away trade?

      Well, at least you got the prescience to be "only" 1/3 vested and 2/3 in cash for the Asian ETF part ;)

      It could be worse!

      Imagine if you were 2/3 vested and thinking of using the remaining 1/3 to average down?


      I see you are not a koala bear or panda ;)

      Placing your bet that the 21st century will be an Asian story?


  6. Lost money in 2018, made money in 2017. Gained valuable experience in 2018, learned nothing new in 2017. 2018 is a year to remember, 2017 is a year to forget.

    1. hyom,

      I am the reversed.

      Lost money in 2017 and made some small change in 2018.

      2017 was painful for me as I was on the wrong side of the trade :(

      2018 at best was a BIG tease for my case. On both occasions I thought I can bring the girl home only to be told her "da-yi-ma" visiting so cannot :(

      OK lor! She is milking me and playing hard to get.


    2. Hi SMOL,

      Making money in a year when most people lost money is great performance. That's true uncorrelated performance with the general market. Good work in 2018.

      In 2018, I tried to bring girl home a few times too early. Unlike your girl, my girl did not even extend the courtesy of cooking up "da-yi-ma" excuse. She just gave me a slap and I got slapped almost every time. Later, when she later open her legs wide wide, I did not take the cue. No mood liao. Still self-reflecting to this day. LOL.

      How were your experiments into intra-day trading? I think the one-day-up, one-day-down, huge intra-day range should be fertile conditions for the intra-day trading "crash got sound" experiments.

    3. hyom,


      Thanks for indulging in my metaphors!

      Oct was fun as I made small money playing some tiny intraday trades. Even when market moves against me, I was profit stopped out.

      Then Novemeber came and I was getting stopped out intraday and giving some of my small previous winnings back to the market :(

      Read one more time. I was getting stopped out INTRADAY!!!???

      LOL! You can imagine the volatility!

      As I'm a good boy, I listened to what the market is telling me. So during Dec this month, I was on the sidelines. Did not made a single trade.


      Deer frozen in the headlights?

      Sometimes, not losing is winning. Most of my winnings came from the Feb trade. Unfortunately there's no follow through...

      And the recent Oct move was just a big tease!

    4. You still came out positive from the intra-day trading experiments that started in Oct 2018. You got paid instead of paying school fees. That's good. At least you managed to kiss the girl. I got nothing but slaps. LOL.

      Hopefully, in the new year 2019, all of us are not only able to bring girl home, but produce one more human being!

  7. merry christmas and a happy new year to you smol!

    the market, its killing all of us, traders, plunters, investors...the plunters were long gone, the traders are disappearing fast, the investors are holding on with more pain to come! i don't see any institution players, they are gone too!

    next year i'll be retiring (following our good friend fat haha)! i don't see the market changes any time soon, the structure had broken.

    1. coconut,

      Happy New Year to you too!

      I feel you.

      Many retail don't know what talking us, but those of us that do it full time will understand the pain we going through.

      Something is definitely "different".

      The 2-3% up and down intraday whipsaw moves in the States are not normal. And why are institutions making big buy and sell programmes during shortened and light liquidity conditions during the holidays?

      This month, I spotted several occasions where there are wide discrepancies between the spot STI index and the Simsci futures.

      I mean when it happens for a few seconds, its normal as the arbitrage opportuity will be traded away by the market makers.

      But for several minutes???

      You guys are either on holidays or like you, some have decided to call it a day... The machines have won :(

      Institutional players are licking their wounds, full time traders like you are leaving one by one; only those retail "gurus" and their minions are "making money" everyday!?

      All the best to your retirement from trading!

      Don't be a stranger OK?

      No trade got more free time always welcomed to poke me or "talk male chicken" at this watering hole.

      Thirsty and need a free drink just let me know!

      Me? I'll patiently wait for trending markets to return. Been waiting for 2 years liao :(

      I'm lucky in the sense that I'm not trading for a living. I'll continue to milk this edge for as long as I can!

    2. of cos i'll keep my eyes open and i believe i'll be back!

      to be honest, as a system traders, my system still make mo9ney this year though, but the return vs risk exposure has change a lot, i'm risking too much for reducing rewards, to a point that i have to say it quit or til i found another system to trade. trend following might be a good choice but i'm no good at it. lets see what next year can bring.

    3. coconut,

      Yup, can't wait for 2019 to come soon!

      That's the difference between the pros and bei kambings - risk management.

      Risking 1 dollar to earn 2 or 3 dollars makes sense.

      Risking 3 dollars to earn 1 dollar?

      We let the trade come to us ;)

  8. temperament,

    There are trends in intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly time frames ;)

    Choose your poison!

    You are right.

    No one trades or invests because they started with the intention they'll breakeven one day...

    All the little lies and denials come AFTER ;)


Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...