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Sunday, 27 August 2017

Deja vu like in 2000?


Anyone investing/trading around year 2000?

Wait. 

Its more than 17 years...

Now that's a generation ago!



How?

Do the events of today remind you of 2000?

Especially the activities and behaviours of your colleagues, neighbours, classmates, etc?





31 comments:

  1. Judging by the new entrants of "Gurus" giving investment seminars and talks; and more and more stock broker houses giving seminars on market insights.

    With social media; it is exploding with attendees and new investors.

    This is good news for market tested veterans looking for opportunities down the road.

    Question to think about: Where does the money from stock market come from? :-)


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CW,

      I started my journey in 1999 - 18 years now!? Fulltime since 5 years ago (dare I say went pro?). Where did the time went?

      So glad I've gone through 2000-2003 - 3 years of lower highs and lower lows.

      The Lehman 2008 event was a "short" 1 year thingy (most people have forgotten it or too young to expeirence it)...


      Its like poker or mahjong. There's no such thing as everyone play "carefully" so everyone will come out ahead tonight!?

      Its the same for school. What's the point if that year every graduate qualifies to be a President Scholar?


      Delete
  2. Smol,

    Always have enough to harvest and sow....

    Mathematically sound, but u average out the boom bust the figure of returns no longer sexy. Even if u manage to buy "some" at bottom and sell "some at peak. Returns is still ... av.

    But that takes a lot of skills le

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sillyinvestor,

      Retail veterans have to ask ourselves WHY we started our investment journeys in the first place.

      Do we want to be sexy as in bragging rights to plug a hole in the heart? We tired to be "average"...

      Or do we want to have "options"? You don't want to be told we can have any colours we want just as long its black... (Notice big daddy likes to talk like that?)

      Or is it more a journey of self-actualisation? To discover ourselves? Lose money but we learn something more about ourselves? Make money and we notice we've "lost" ourselves even more? We've become "uglier", greedier?

      Whatever happened to having fun like when we were young?


      Delete
  3. Hi SMOL,

    In 2000, I think I'm still playing neopets, lol. There's a stockmarket in the neopets universe though. "Free money" one, unlike real life.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unintelligent Nerd,

      You can spot those whose investing journey started after 2009 and those who have been through the dark days of 2008, 2000, 1997, etc...

      The former is super confident and "male-chicken" sure the future will pan out exactly as they have "planned"...

      The latter have enough eggs on our faces to know the humility of what if we were wrong... These are the ones with plan B, emergency funds, and know something about risk management ;)

      No short-cuts; everyone has to pay his or her dues.

      Delete
  4. Feels more like early-1999 ... people getting more interested in financial markets ... property starts picking up ... markets around the world booming, esp US & EM ... sentiment improving after couple of years of relatively poor-ish local economy...

    No news reports yet of people quitting their jobs to become full-time traders, like in late-1999 & early-2000. Getting rich in stocks not really on average person's mind & not front page news. Now is mostly enbloc heating up stories.

    I'm betting another 6 months before we'll see euphoric bull sentiments. This old bull may have another year or so left :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Spur,

      That's because many have tried but find trading really hard.

      So they become born-again dividend investors "investing" for passive income and swore off trading forever!

      Passive is "easier" mah! Look ma! No brains needed!


      The new spin is we can be financially free by 35 with passive income - which is not much different from the old retail traders' dream of quitting their boring jobs and trade fulltime at 35 ;)

      Old wine; new bottle. Same "koyok"...


      Just observe how many "young" people have started new businesses to help other people get rich ;)

      Hey, I even help these new startups "lelong lelong" a bit in my "sponsors" tab!

      Nothing is free. I help but in return, I get a pulse on what's going on outside my dungeon ;)


      I tend to believe more Singaporeans have made money in properties than in stocks.

      Especially when we count in "REAL" money - like in multiples of hundreds of thousands or millions.

      Ever noticed property investors count in money; while retail equities "investors" like to count in %?

      Shhh...


      Delete
  5. You forgot to mention all the brokers, financial analysts and investment houses inundating news and financial websites touting BUY, ADD, ACCUMULATE non-stop daily.
    Just look at sgx.i3investor.com, the edge markets, etc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Laurence,

      I did not "forget".

      I deliberately left wide open spaces for readers to fill them in themselves ;)

      As you can see from the comments - those who can see, can; those who can't, can't.


      Oh, its nice to have another "man of leisure" at this watering-hole.

      There's quite a few of us now - those who discovered we have enough :)

      Free must jio me and CW for kopi OK?

      You pay!

      LOL!

      Delete
  6. You got to becareful when people keeps calling in and ask you what's the due date for trade in the local market, some might even question you why take so long and slow?!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Small Time Investor,

      Our immediate circle of friends, family, colleagues, neighbours are a good tell right?

      Bei kambings can't wait to spread the gospel of prosperity; we veterans are more reticent especially after knowing personally those people where the more they "invest", the more they lose...

      Eh? You broker still or ex-broker?


      Delete
  7. Hi all,

    Everyday is a test. Focus on the present which we can still have control over. It's more practical and realistic.

    Ben

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ben,

      My 道兄, always nice of you to bring us back to the here and now :)

      Delete
    2. Hi SMOL,

      So honoured to be considered as your 道兄.

      Things change all the time. The only constant is change. I believe that one will be able to grasp the full meaning of time through such rational and intriguing thought.

      As the saying goes "The going gets tougher, the tougher gets longer". Such saying goes to show the meaning of "perservance" which is supported by sheer determination.

      Ben

      Delete
    3. Ben,

      My Zen is mostly self-taught through reading.

      Although I did dropout of the 3 year Buddhsim course after 1 year 1 semester at Bright Hill Temple (class room learning not my thing). Friday afternoons now I would be doing Zen drumming ;)

      So you can say my 道场 is Bright Hill Temple.

      Where's yours?



      P.S. As a Teochew, young that time I would follow my Ah Ma to 居世林 at Kim Yan Road. That's the Pure Land 法门.

      Just the other week, I chanced upon a customer who is also a 道兄. We spent 45 minutes discussing his Maitreya discipline, Chinese holistic medicine, and the environment!

      He forgot to buy; I forget to sell.

      LOL!


      Delete
    4. SMOL,

      My 道场 is 四马路观音堂. It's inevitable when people of common zen meet, the conversation will linger on.

      That's the power of "Zen"!

      Ben

      Delete
    5. Ben,

      Ah! I'm there once a month there too ;)

      More to say hello to Kwan Im Ma whenever I visit Bugis or Sim Lim.

      Namaste.




      Delete
  8. No, I'm customer service cum bei kambing salesman. Broker, dealer hard to do.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Small Time Investor,

      Ah! Got it.

      Nice fringe benefit. Some of your female colleagues quite "chio". I have a thing for thight skirts and heels...

      LOL!

      Delete
    2. Ahh...Smol very experienced, see legs one.

      Delete
    3. SMOL,

      That is the essence of SMOL.

      Ben

      Delete
    4. Ben,

      In case people think I'm "hum-sup", I'm not!

      I'm a connoisseur of curves OK!?

      Delete
  9. smol, how can it be the same as 2000?

    there is no speculative activities(very little) in the market right now, the liquidity is drying up, so as the volatility, so as the traders! where have they gone to?

    no, the market will slowly clambing up with no speculative activities.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. year 2000 i was just still slowly crawling back from the death valley haha...

      Delete
    2. coconut,

      Hee hee. That's the beauty of being "vague" and "grey" with:

      "Do the events of today remind you of 2000?"


      Everyone will share their very own perspective and thus make this watering-hole where a hundred flowers bloom!

      My focus is the people around me. You? The actual market itself ;)

      You think why brokers are slashing brokerage fees to 0.12%!? Not that I am complaining ;)

      Poor SGX is trying to encourage more retail participation (euphemism for more trading) and introducing new fangled trading vehicles like Daily Leverage Certificates.

      Not only is the retail trading pie getting smaller (converted to passive indexing or dividend yield hogs), its diluted by turbo-charged OTC vehicles like CFDs.

      The liquidity has gone to ETFs, while volatility went to cryptocurrencies...


      These 2 years have been a test of my patience and sitting still ;)

      Meanwhile, I keep flushing money down the toilet whenever I buy "travel insurance" :(

      LOL!



      Delete
    3. SMOL,

      It's good to go travelling. It broadens the horizon. I believe that you are well-travelled journeyman given your overseas employment stint in the past.

      Travel insurance is not considered a waste. It is just a precautionary step for your travel. I opin that the travel insurance is like term insurance which acts as a buffer on the incurred cost (if arised).

      Ben

      Delete
    4. Ben,

      Yes, I've been around a bit ;)

      My "travel insurance" is a metaphor for hedging my portolio in the markets.

      Its important like you've said (I don't intend to start over so must hedge); but when I return home safely (market didn't crash), the premiums I've paid is flushed down the toilet...

      Ouch!

      LOL!



      Delete
    5. I still haven't grasp the art of hedging. If next time I retire and want to do trading, then I know I should buy who kopi hehe.

      The bull is seemingly tired but there is still no sign of impending bear leh...

      Delete
    6. Rainbow girl,

      Keep a record of your observations and experiences.

      "No sign of impending bear" - if you ask or observe the retail veterans here, most of us will see what we want to see; and our views may differ from yours ;)


      I did say crash got sound... But its precisely because we have experienced crash got sound that we've learned NOT to wait for a "crash got sound" to start taking money off the table...

      LOL!




      Delete

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