Not in water yet; even easier to turn back? Lol, that is if the water is suffering to him.
Some might be happily swimming and frolicking, getting stronger and muscle, able to swim to the shores and said"good exercise! See how fit I am, come swim!"
Your poem offers an explanation for today's zig-zag global stock market situation.
When it appears that the bear is on the ascendant (Jan 2016), a strong rebound follows (end Feb2016). Lots of people are ready to jump into the stock market sea when the stock market declines because of ultra-low interest rates. This keeps the bear away and gives the market the fire-power to rebound when down.
When the bull starts rearing its head, it cannot show its full body because there are lots of folks who dare not jump into the stock market sea. They only dare to tip-toe into the waters because the memory of 2008 financial meltdown is still fresh in their mind. This fear is holding back the stock market from rising further. Without the euphoric climax that typically sucks up all the remaining capital to push up the market, I don't see the end of the current bull market in sight. Yet, I also do not see the beginning of a bear market in sight either, because of the massive capital waiting on the sidelines thanks to ultra-low interest rates. There are strong forces that prevent the stock market from going up as well as going down.
Your poem 回头通胀 (inflation) is not so much of a concern yet. Today, deflation is still stronger than inflation as can be seen in slow economic growth, rising job cuts, declining corporate earnings and trillions of dollars in negative-yield accounts globally. Having said that, inflation is starting to make noise. Listen to the gold market. Listen to the TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) market. Inflation is stirring and investors are ignoring this risk thanks to the gloomy picture projected by negative-yield. When inflation really makes a comeback, I cannot fathom what damage it will do to the fixed income market and the spill-over effects on the stock market.
:-(
ReplyDelete:-)
Deletetemperament,
ReplyDeleteIt goes as follows:
The treachery sea of stock market lies ahead.
Look back got inflation,
look down got children,
look up got parents.
Bloody bank interest so low,
no choice must jump in!
temperament,
ReplyDeleteTo the young, it could be fun and games since there is always time to recover. Maybe.
2/3 would wished they never have jumped in...
But retirees?
If fixed deposits were to pay decent interest like 4-5%, why would retirees put capital at risk into this treacherous sea?
We better enjoy our fairly decent CPF interest rates before they are pegged to Singapore's 10 year bonds...
Smol,
ReplyDelete回头是岸？turn back is shores?
Not in water yet; even easier to turn back? Lol, that is if the water is suffering to him.
Some might be happily swimming and frolicking, getting stronger and muscle, able to swim to the shores and said"good exercise! See how fit I am, come swim!"
Sillyinvestor,
Delete回头是通胀... (it rhymes with 岸)
That's the problem. Especially for big ticket items like housing, cars, medical costs, education; etc.
Although thankfully, we do enjoy deflation for electronic goods like TV, computers; etc. And broadband! They are "cheaper" each passing year, no!?
Of course, the minority 1/4 are happy they have jumped in :)
temperament,
ReplyDeleteCPFIS is a great scheme to shut the whiners up.
Complain CPF interests too low? You can do better?
Well, 3/4 have tried and have done far worse...
金山有路勤俭为径
ReplyDelete股海无涯谨慎作舟
好！
Delete书山有路勤为径，学海无涯苦作舟。
Haha, see I am such a good copycat.
DeleteNo.
DeleteCopy cat is "parrot" exactly.
It takes creativity to pour old wine into new bottles ;)
We don't sing the karaoke version of a song that everyone knows; we make the song our own - our unique interpretation or cover version :)
It can be
ReplyDelete春去秋来 起起伏伏
看准时机 钱袋满满
Or more likely like me:(
春去秋来 起起伏伏
回头已是 满目疮痍
So leh?
yeh妹，
Delete春去秋来， 起起伏伏
夫君相伴， 美满幸福
可别忘了珍惜他 ;)
Your poem offers an explanation for today's zig-zag global stock market situation.
ReplyDeleteWhen it appears that the bear is on the ascendant (Jan 2016), a strong rebound follows (end Feb2016). Lots of people are ready to jump into the stock market sea when the stock market declines because of ultra-low interest rates. This keeps the bear away and gives the market the fire-power to rebound when down.
When the bull starts rearing its head, it cannot show its full body because there are lots of folks who dare not jump into the stock market sea. They only dare to tip-toe into the waters because the memory of 2008 financial meltdown is still fresh in their mind. This fear is holding back the stock market from rising further. Without the euphoric climax that typically sucks up all the remaining capital to push up the market, I don't see the end of the current bull market in sight. Yet, I also do not see the beginning of a bear market in sight either, because of the massive capital waiting on the sidelines thanks to ultra-low interest rates. There are strong forces that prevent the stock market from going up as well as going down.
Your poem 回头通胀 (inflation) is not so much of a concern yet. Today, deflation is still stronger than inflation as can be seen in slow economic growth, rising job cuts, declining corporate earnings and trillions of dollars in negative-yield accounts globally. Having said that, inflation is starting to make noise. Listen to the gold market. Listen to the TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) market. Inflation is stirring and investors are ignoring this risk thanks to the gloomy picture projected by negative-yield. When inflation really makes a comeback, I cannot fathom what damage it will do to the fixed income market and the spill-over effects on the stock market.
hyom hyom,
DeleteYou comment nicely encapsulates the difficulty the experienced retail and pros face.
Only those who are "young" in the markets are full of conviction as they do not know what cannot be done ;)
You see what I see.
The question is do I "invest" for today or for tomorrow?
If its for today, then trading would be a better description than investing ;)
If its for tomorrow, why would I be investing today when there's deflation now?
You and I cannot fathom what damage high inflation will do to the stock market and economy - I was in primary school in the 70s.
The seniors who lived through the oil shocks of the 70s will have an advantage over us.
In theory, their positioning should be different from the youth ;)
I think its time to treat our seniors to coffee and listen to their "wah kali kong"!