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Wednesday, 20 June 2012

Gold please don't rise above USD 1700 before Oct 2012

I own paper silver (UOB silver account). Wished I had bought more.

The paper and unrealised return for silver so far beats the dividend yield plays that I bought around the same time. 

Silver is 50% industrial use and 50% greater fool.

Guess what? Over the last weeks, I've been itching to buy a 100% greater fool block that just sits there. 

Why?

While all these bailouts and easing by the Central Banks around the world are helping to put a floor and reflate my equities holdings (I not complaining),  but all these money printing will come home to roost one day...

Just visit our neighbouring countries with all the zeros on their bills. It's easy to be a "paper" millionaire!

Another was the realisation that I need to own some physical precious metals. Physical silver would take up too much space. Gold is better.

When there's a crisis, and I need to flee out of Singapore like the South Vietnamese boat people in 1979, maybe some physical gold would come in handy to pay for my passage. I don't think the boat owners accepted paper money. Nor would I believe the banks will remain open just for me. Can kiss my paper silver and cash savings goodbye!

No, I not converting most of my asset to physical gold. Just enough to make me sleep better knowing that I can afford the plan B boat or air-ticket. Put the gold under my pillow like my ang pows when we were young?

I know, I am irrational! Singapore safe like Switzerland. But that's what scientists and government also tell the Japanese public on nuclear energy...

And my fingers were itching during the last few weeks when gold retracted to below USD 1600.

But the 7% GST for physical gold will only be waived this October in Singapore...

Thank goodness the bond markets are signalling bond investors are more afraid of a  deflationary environment. If not how to explain why investors are OK with getting negative yields (US 10 year treasury)?

Hence I am betting that gold would not rise beyond USD 1700 by Oct this year.

Or so I hope.

If I take gold at USD 1600 today, plus 7%  GST is around USD 1700.

This could turn out to be eggs on my face as a great example of penny wise pound foolish. 

Imagine if gold would to zoom back to USD1900 end of this year. 

LOL!

All this to save 7%...

Well, everything is a bet or speculation to me :)

16 comments:

  1. Aiyoh, and you said something about not sweating the small things... ;p

    Jog your memory: refer to one of my recent comments and your reply. Hahaha... ;)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AK,

      This post is precisely an inspiration from our recent comments. LOL!

      I would buy gold now if I believe gold will hit USD 1900. The 7% GST extra transaction cost IS the small stuff. Why wait?

      I often buy at the offer and sell at the bid prices. I don't sweat about the spread nor I fret too much trying to find the lowest cost broker.

      Behind this sugar-coated self-mockery post, there is an ironic satire somewhere on being penny wise pound foolish.

      Delete
    2. Aiyoh.. So cerebral. You spoiling your own image as comedian. Wahahaha... ;p

      Careful hor, think too much will get white hair de. kekekeke....

      Delete
    3. what do you mean when crises comes? we have a real assets bubble here cause by easy money, you call them safe (haven)?

      we have all these "Vietnamese boat" money flooded in our country, we will sink together haha.

      Delete
    4. smol, putting money all over the place is not a good option. as a speculator, you need concerntrate firing power and easy mobility.

      if you think gold is going up, just buy the futures. don't know what the hell you are doing haha.

      Delete
    5. AK,

      I'll never be caught with white hair ;)

      Shaved them all off!

      Another benefit of bald hairstyle!

      Delete
    6. Coconut,

      Its just one of my rojak "stay-tuned" positions.

      My core positions is in 3 stocks, silver and cash ;)

      I don't over diversify one.

      Need some scouts as advance party so when its time to go all in, I can do it with conviction.

      Now that I have a lot more time, I am experimenting with other asset classes. I want to get absolute returns - instead of being stuck with STI on relative returns.

      I am now looking into shorting US treasuries.

      LOL!

      Delete
  2. Hi SMOL

    Gold at USD 1700! Wow...

    Actually, for boat people scenario, you need disaster prepping rather than gold, i.e. extra food, water, survival gear for potential (zombie?!) apocalypse. :-)

    Be well and prosper.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Panzer,

      I running away; not staying put.

      Or should I say I am doing a strategic retreat?

      LOL!

      Delete
  3. I will sharpen my axe to get those Gold when it becomes necessary. LOL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hmm... Great heads up CW8888!

      I think I change my mind. I buy gold chains and rings instead. So can wear them on me 24/7. LOL!

      Delete
  4. Now I know why Ah Bengs and Ah Lians are smarter by wearing thick thick Gold on their body.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what Ah Bengs and Ah Lians?

      Ah Long and their runners! they also know how to hedge.

      Delete
    2. oh ya, they often need to run and hide without notice. make sense to carry gold around.

      Delete
    3. Carrying part of our wealth on our body can lead us to being robbed; but at the same time, in an emergency or natural disaster, it may be the only wealth that's left.

      How about a gold medallion to go with my unbuttoned shirt for that Bee Gees 70s retro look?

      Delete
    4. make sure you wear the thick thick one, i'm sure no one dare to even come close to you.

      Delete

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