Sunday, 24 June 2012

Analysts - You win liao lor!

I wonder why there are so few analysts out there who can speak with conviction?

Last Thursday, Goldman Sachs told investors sell the S&P 500:
Goldman Sachs says sell S&P 500

But after the "got dragon got phoenix" spiel, they have to spoil with it with their hedge:

"Still they did add a few caveats. The S&P could pop or at least stay flat if the U.S. or Chinese economies start revving up or if European policy makers talk a big game about propping up the market."

It's the same with technical analysts.

We believe after breaking the immediate support of 2800 for STI, the index is likely to test 2740 in the near term. However, this view is negated if STI recovers to 2830. (I made this up but I am sure you have read similar spin)


In the words of my Hokkien speaking friends: "You win liao lor! Everything also you say one. Human is you; ghost also you!"


P.S.  Analysts who have conviction have already moved on to being mutual or hedge fund managers or full-time investors themselves.


  1. Hi SMOL

    As the saying goes, there are those who say do what I say, but don't do what I do?

    The smart money will listen to the analyst and then ask so where did you put your money? :-)

    Be well and prosper.

    1. Right on Panzer!

      Nothing beats putting money where your mouth is ;)

      Put skin in the game!

  2. Hi SMOL,

    I suppose analysts are more concerned with being right, whereas people on the ground with money in the game is more concerned with making money. Different objectives? :) haha

    1. LP!

      Welcome back! I was thinking you were on holiday or hibernating somewhere since you long time no post liao :(

      Duh? I would have expected that a 12 months price target is already a good enough hedge ;)

      But there are a few analysts that give it straight - these I like; even though they may get it wrong.

      Show me one that never gets it wrong ever!

      There's one very funny analyst. Use lots of weird metaphors that cracks me up. But recently he toned it down. I guess his boss must have asked him to "drink kopi" in his office.

      Why so serious?


  3. Hi SMOL,

    I'm hibernating ;)

    Haha, I think that funny analyst comes from OCBC or something. I think I've seen it before, with all the funny anecdotes and interesting metaphors. I haven't seen it for quite some time already though :)


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