Wednesday 14 August 2019

Missed the low volatility of 2017?

That's the year for passive "investors" and yield hogs.

When STI moves from lower left corner to upper right corner.


Yup, you've earned the right to tell your mom, "Look! No brains needed!"

Of course that didn't last.

2018 and this year 2019 has a lot more see-saw rollercoaster ups and downs...

The fisherman and me met up with a young doctor for kopi recently.

STI is less than -10% off its recent highs, yet we heard some are already nursing more than -20% losses on individual counters.

Mind you, not penny stocks hor. They are so called "blue chips" and dividend plays. Connected to big daddy, so cannot "fail" ones! 

I agree. But prices can definitely turn south...  

I just hope they didn't call themselves "value" investors. I mean if you bought at 5 year high prices or near cycle top, calling yourself "growth" would be more appropriate...

Still wrong. Still lose money. But with less awkward silence...

And its not any easier with trading too.

There are quite a few traders - both full time and part time - that used to visit this watering hole

Some have already call it quits. 

So much for dreams and goals.

Investing is hard.

Trading is hard.


  1. Real pain of investing is not here yet!

    Then we may see new generation of chop fingers to become faithful savers. Losing to inflation is less painful as inflation is killing us softly and slowly. Unless SGD crashes!

    1. CW,

      That will be the day when CPF SAVERS will crawl out of the woodwork and start evangelising lets all do voluntary CPF contribution to our way towards financial freedom and becoming millionaires - the slow but steady way!

      And they will call it "investing"! See? Everyone and anyone can do it!

      Well, those who got 20 to 30 years to stomach the shifting goal posts, do pray hard that Singaporeans don't elect big daddies like those in Argentina, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Greece, and the list goes on...

      What the point of CPF "ba ba" but near worthless?

      Our wealthier HK friends who have all their wealth denominated in HKD may be thinking that's not very smart in light of current situation!

      Better follow Li ka-shing!

      Or those smart Hong Kongers who got PR or citizenships (and moved part of their wealth) in other countries before 1997 and then moved back to HK to ride the economic wave!

  2. 2017 was rather abnormal. 2018 & 2019 is actually more "normal" kekeke!!

    Amazingly, some oscillators / sentiment readings reached almost 2009 lows in past few months!?! Yeah, wonder how many finance "trainers" & bloggers will remain active after the next 1-2 years bear market! Hohoho!

    Not just retail, but even so-called pros are having a hard time.

    E.g. This Asian value fund for accredited investors: Chart and Table

    Grand total return of 1.1% after 2 years .... hmmm....

    But it's actually performing quite normally for it's asset class & geographical region! How many accredited investors will accept this & not redeem?!? ;)

    As for CPF, I think many will be sweating this Sunday 18 August when they'll get to hear the new "revised" retirement age & re-employment age .... and how that will affect the minimum payout age going forward! Hoho!!

    1. Hmm .. Chief trainer and chief strategist of school of chartwhatever win disappeared as blogger after 2009

    2. Spur,

      Well, they were "unlucky" to start during 2017...

      If they had started in 2009 and using 2009 as index 100... It would look much better!

      Anyone still believe anytime is a good time to start investing?


    3. CW,

      We had trainers that got sued by students, went to jail, and some left Singapore to "lelong" their scam practices elsewhere as Singapore is only so big...

      Sooner or later, the "bawu" will catch up to them.

      But come next cycle, a new crop of "trainers" will appear like mushrooms to wash, rinse, and repeat.

      Human nature don't change.

      Greed and laziness are 2 easy sell ;)

  3. 10s2s treasuries just inverted for 3 hrs earlier. Bull moving into hospice living on borrowed time 😦

    Problem is that yield inversion is a blunt indicator. Can be 6 mths or 24 mths.

    Don't worry. Better than 50% chance of higher highs before the next bear πŸ˜›

    1. Spur,

      Meanwhile, Trump can kiss and makeup with China, call an end to trariffs, or Power surprise everyone with 50 basis point cut in interest rate next Sept...

      Then we see STI soar beyond 3400!!!

      Buy the freaking dip!

      Squeese the shorts anyone?

    2. Actually just nibbled a small amount of QQQ ... Burp! Hopefully no food poisoning Hohoho!

      Will look for more opportunities next couple months to bite more πŸ˜›

    3. Spur,

      You contrarian brave!

      You'll be hoping Powel starts QE4 in Sept, then its off to the races to another top for US indexes :)

  4. When I encounter losing years, I console myself that losses are essential to enjoy the game. How to enjoy a game if a player wins all the time? Wouldn't the game get boring? Victory can only taste sweet when one has tasted the bitterness of defeats. Furthermore, bear markets contain the seeds from which bull markets grow. No bear means no bull.

    Just make sure one survives the bear with enough capital intact to enjoy the bull later.

    A siao-lang in charge has certainly made things very difficult. His unpredictable tweets can cause market conditions to reverse abruptly. This siao-lang snatches defeat from the jaws of victory from even skillful players.

    1. hyom,

      Ah! Ying and Yang ;)

      Yup. Although investing and trading can often be very exasperating and frustrating, it can also be most exhilarating at times!

      Its very good Zen training to know the REAL me ;)

      The No.1 rule of investing/trading is the same as gambling:

      Protect your chips; you can't play when there's no chips.

      Bulls and bears make money; yield hogs get slaughtered.

  5. Hi SMOL,

    It's only recently I started paying more attention to the stock market. Bought a few but my powder is still very dry. When the market is bullish, what's there to see? Go and play lah! When the market is bearish (we don't see a 3% drop everyday), it's time to bully the bear.

    But I would rather prefer bullish time, then I can don't look at market. Nowadays, go out for my morning run/walk also need to bring along handphone lol

    1. LP,

      I do my walks in the evenings.

      Yup, when market is moving our way, just go to sleep and awake the next morning a little bit richer!

      The best is property. No "live" prices to watch.

      Just sleep for several years, then one day discover it has doubled or tripled!?

      Wait. What happened?

      We didn't even do anything!!!


    2. I would have preferred to exercise in the evening too, but alas, my schedule does not permit. Next time you see me, you'll be wondering why I'm so brownfaced LOL

  6. Will negative mortgage rates come? Seems "free" money but how to Save More like that..will people start comparing which banks cheaper to park money, all hamtam into CPF?

    1. er... (OK, you people are getting real creative with nicks!)

      I hope it doesn't come to Singapore.

      It will be a great opportuity for Singapore asset holders ;)

      Imagine if other countries have negative rates, and Singapore still has positive rates?

      I remember when I was in Athens, and US, Europe, and Japan had near zero interest rates, there were boatloads of Australians flooding Athens from the cruise ships!

      1 AUD can change up to 1.50 USD; while the Australia interest rate was around 4% then.

      Now? With Australia interest near 1%, 1 AUD can only convert to arond 0.68 USD - a 50% discount.

      I'll leave it to your imagination on how much a US investor in Australian stocks and properties could have made (or lost) ;)

      Now you know why I always poke putting money in CPF is not "investing". LOL!

      Anyway, big daddy already protected themselves. They did say they will peg the CPF interest rate to our 10 year Singapore bond no?


  7. Hi SMOL,
    Whoa... Your post is already a week old. These few weeks I really eat PSLE sleep PSLE.

    2017, hmm I thought there is dip in Jan 2017. I thought those who bought then would be good.

    Anyway, I think better look at individual company than broad market. Of course a 2009 kind of crisis everything get hit.

    But so far, having convincion on the growth when the market think otherwise of a company has been quite rewarding for me so far.

    IIRC, just a year ago, people are questioning why I am buying ST engineering at 3.2. saying it's expensive.

    Of course it can get lower. But I have learn to just trust myself since it's my money.

    I bid for YZJ at 80 cents when the rumors start. Too bad I didn't get any.

    I feel my balls are coming back to me.

    Maybe because more than half is in cash ... Got insurance

    1. Sillyinvestor,

      You do you. Don't ever care what others say ;)

      If you are doing well with your bottom-up indidivual stock picking, continue to do so!

      I do better with top-down macro directional trades ;)

      That's the fun part of this watering hole. All very different and weird weird kind of animals come here.

      We know what poison suits us, and which shoes fit our feet best.

      When we speak with confidence and conviction, we can poke others and take the pokes from others ;)

      Make money? So what?

      Lost money? Nobody cares!

      I'm not the Indian Chief, and readers are not "yalor, yalor" groupies.


  8. Still alive here.. but what's changed for me most fundamentally the past 2 years are:

    1) i'm also trading cryptos and it's 24/7 so no switching off even during weekends!

    2) i follow Trump on twitter now

    1. SGRetailTrader,

      Welcome back! Glad you are alive and still kicking!


      Dead or out of chips? Game over :(

      We are sama, sama.

      Its the same in the world of forex ;)


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