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A Plan Is Not A Strategy

 

Some Singaporeans like to lament, "School never teach..."

Well, sometimes school teaches us the "wrong" knowledge - like those Poor Dad stuffs...

Then there are times school got teach us the "right" concepts, but its us students who make a mess of everything as we are applying the knowledge from a "sheep" perspective. 

Regular readers at this watering hole know how I like to poke superficial understanding of SMART goal settings; and those empty parroting of "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail."

Don't worry. Many of us do this in our day jobs too. 

Economy good, we hit our goals (like in investment/trading) and we shamelessly take full credit for it due to our excellent "planning".

Economy bad we didn't achieve anything but its never our fault!

In my previous company, the running joke its the customers' fault for not buying in accordance to our sales forecast! LOL!

Stumbled upon this excellent Youtube video:

Apply this to investment/trading:

Strategy = What's your EDGE?

If you struggle to find your EDGE, then its like in our day jobs - markets up I make money; markets down I lose money.

All those sexy SMART goals and fancy investment/trading plans don't make any difference whatsoever.

But they sure make you look "educated"!

Financially literate? I not so sure...

Minecraft Bans NFTs

 

This is so cool!

Minecraft and NFTs

I guess there are others out there "arguing with the STOP sign". Wink.

I mean not everyone is "predatory" and eager to make an extra buck out of their sales funnel...

We are living in interesting times! 

Now I know what's it like to live through the Tulip mania. 

Cryptos? The jury is still out; time will resolve whether its "digital gold" or not.

But NFTs? 

They look and smell like digital Tulips to me...

Percentages and Absolute Numbers - Cleavage or Thighs?

 

I better label this post as "Humour" just in case...

Its a continuation of this blog post long ago:

Focus On Our Strengths

Let's imagine you are a landowner. 

You got two servants.

One servant managed to grow 10,000 bushels of wheat into 100,000 bushels of wheat from the previous year. 

A 10 fold increase in yield!

The other servant manage to increase 950,000 bushels of wheat to 1,000,000 bushels of wheat this year. 

Its a new milestone! This is the first time your farms have ever crossed the million bushel mark!

How?

Who would you praise more?

And how would you reward and incentivize your servants going forward?

P.S.  If you don't have real life experience as a landowner or shepherd, you can turn the question into:

If you got $10K and $950K to invest as separate positions, which asset class or vehicle would you choose for each?

And why?

How To Always Make Money In Stocks?

 

1.  TEACH others (for a generous fee) HOW to make money in Stocks.

2.  Bring in SPACs, Technology funds/ETFs, Data Centre REITs, S-Chips, or anything that's "hot" for the season, and SELL them to the unsuspecting Late Majority or Laggards.

When something is new, risky, or unknown, that's for early adopters and early majority. When you read about it in blogs, broker's recommendations, or mainstream financial websites, don't kid yourself...

 

3.  IPO the business you started. (This one good, better, best!)

Resale HDB flats Cheaper Than HDB BTOs?

 

Another interesting takeaway from the recent Ang Mo Kio SERS, is that in the coming years, we may have to get used to more HDB resale flats selling for less than new HDB BTO flats!

I knew its a matter of time, especially with more ancient HDB flats with less than 50 year leases coming on to the market...

Somehow I've always thought its something to resolve 10 or 20 years later, but after writing my previous post, it suddenly dawned on me its happening in the here and now already! 

Just talk to the affected SERS flat owners in Ang Mo Kio.

This assumption that HDB resale flats will always be more expensive than brand new virgin HDB BTO flats will have to go too!

 

For those who want to verify for themselves:

Ang Mo Kio SERs

Look at the "subsidised" replacement flat selling prices and the compensation the Ang Mo Kio residents are getting.

The Glass Half Full Mindset

Today, seniors aged 55 and above looking for a shorter lease HDB flat are limited to the 2 room flexi scheme where you can lease between 15 and 45 years in 5 year increments.

But if you are more well-to-do (downgrading from private for eg), or need a bigger flat (for your harem of wives), you now have a lot more options! 

3 room, 4 room, 5 room all available to you!!!

Just choose those ancient HDB resale flats with 45 years or less leases remaining and you can have them for less than brand new BTO flats. 

The added benefit is you get to choose the location you like (near children or in popular mature estates), plus in general, older 4 to 5 room flats are bigger than current BTO ones.

And you can use the Bala's Curve to your advantage as a buyer. Wink.

For Singapore permanent residents, it works great if you aged 55 and above. Especially if you are from Hong Kong or Mainland China. You are already used to 50 year leases in HK and 70 years leases in China.

You won't have "aversion" like local Singaporeans have when it comes to HDB flats with shorter leases.

Sellers, I got your back too.

If you couldn't read between the lines, I've been helping you all along.

More important is not the decaying lease; its demand.

I'm not going to spoon-feed you. 

If you want to educate yourself, go study why those ancient HDB landed terrace houses (3 room) and Tiong Bahru walkup apartments can be sold for more than a million and above - defying the Bala's Curve valuations!?

Of course no one can help you if you HDB flat is in a lousy location. That's a given.

Then you best bet is still SERS!

Thankful for my SERS jackpot! Its not guaranteed anymore....

 

When a reader congratulated me 3 weeks ago on my lucky timing for SERS - compared to the Ang Mo Kio SERS debacle - I was initially in a bit of shock and surprise:

No way SERS residents have to top-up for their replacement flats one lah!

Even "experts" and academics were assuming, as recent as May 2022, those affected by SERS would get a new replacement with full 99 year lease without any top-ups... (not going to give the links to save embarrassment to the 2 academics)

I waited 3 weeks to make this post.

I need to do my Trust and Verify first. And let the dust settles.

Have to. 

There's a lot of half-truths, assumptions, opinions, and down right misinformation floating around in the media. 

My SERS was announced 8 years ago. 

Remember when I said those who got married and bought their HDB BTOs at 25 would do much better financially than their peers who focused on career first and bought their first HDB BTO at 35?

Well, what world of difference that 8 year make! Talk about Market Timing!!! 

Especially when you consider the below factors:

1.  My Tanglin Halt flat lease starts from1971, Ang Mo Kio ones start from 1979. 

2.  Our average Tanglin 3 room flat size is 55 sqm; the replacement 3 room flats are 65 sqm. 

3.  Of the 5 replacement sites, 4 are HDB Premium flats, 1 is normal HDB flats. Choose HDB Premium flats no need cash top-up! Let that sink in for a moment.

Of course we have to top-up cash if we want to upgrade from 3 room to 4 room - those of us with 3 room corner units have that option since our flats are 64 sqm, bigger than the 55 sqm ones on the common corridors.

Same if your existing Tanglin Halt flat is on the ground floor and you want the top floor for your replacement flat. I mean that's not apples to apples right?

Safe to say, majority of us got extra cash in our pockets together with a fresh 99 year lease. 

How I know?

Well, my SERS compensation is enough to pay for one of the most expensive 3 room replacement flats (top floor) without any cash top-ups. 

You can see the trend.

Put the Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) and this recent Ang Mo Kio SERS exercise together, it would be much harder to squeeze blood out from the HDB cherries going forward...

Those who are trying to position themselves for the next SERS, you may want to temper your expectations a bit.

If your CPF is bountiful from regular CPF top-ups, its not an obstacle. SERS is still financially profitable, never mind the cash top-ups. 

But if you are low in cash, CPF, and can't qualify for a bank loan, its a different story...

Timing is Everything!

There's a lesson here for those of us on the Earn More path. 

Women know this intuitively.

Meet the right man? 

Idiot! He's married...

Some bitch has her claws and fangs in him already!!!

Would Malaysians Voluntarily Contribute To Their EPF?

 

I mean their EPF dividends beats our CPF interest rates hands down:

EPF declares higher dividends for 2021

Before we proceed, have you noticed its dividends for EPF but interests for CPF?

It could be just semantics; no big deal. Or is it?

Are there any Malaysians here (former also can!)?

If the EPF dividends are 5%-6%, do you still feel the need to "invest" to Earn More? 

I mean Save More can oredi! No?

How is it in Malaysia?

Would a similar "1M65" movement gain traction over there?

Or would the more financially literate Malaysians prefer to weather the risk of capital loss by investing in Singapore dividends stocks for the same 5%-6% dividend yield?

Wait!

What do the more financially literate Singaporeans do?

 

Take the Stairs? Really?

 

OK, maybe with the exception of cryptos...  

But you must know which floor to get OUT of the elevator!

The idea that with a small sum of $10K, we can be a millionaire in 4-5 years is very cool!

Then again, I can also take the Toto elevator too!

I mean just $1 Quick Pick gives me a chance to be a millionaire as well!

Although it has eluded me for the past 30 years... (not working out too well for me)

Normally, when we have dementia, most family members and relatives will shy away from taking care of you fulltime.

But if you are rich, alone, and have no dependents, all of sudden you find relatives "fighting" to be your legal guardian!?

I think some Singaporeans are taking a page out of that Mainland Chinese tour guide who discovered financial freedom just by calling someone, "Mommy!"

My sibling has just got his Lasting Power of Attorney done. I'm one of his donees.

OK, I better get my legal matters done up too; when I'm still lucid.

I don't want to be used as an elevator.

You never know when I'll capitulate and be totally besotted to a 18 year old when I'm in my 80s!!!