Some Singaporeans like to lament, "School never teach..."
Well, sometimes school teaches us the "wrong" knowledge - like those Poor Dad stuffs...
Then there are times school got teach us the "right" concepts, but its us students who make a mess of everything as we are applying the knowledge from a "sheep" perspective.
Regular readers at this watering hole know how I like to poke superficial understanding of SMART goal settings; and those empty parroting of "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail."
Don't worry. Many of us do this in our day jobs too.
Economy good, we hit our goals (like in investment/trading) and we shamelessly take full credit for it due to our excellent "planning".
Economy bad we didn't achieve anything but its never our fault!
In my previous company, the running joke its the customers' fault for not buying in accordance to our sales forecast! LOL!
Stumbled upon this excellent Youtube video:
Apply this to investment/trading:
Strategy = What's your EDGE?
If you struggle to find your EDGE, then its like in our day jobs - markets up I make money; markets down I lose money.
All those sexy SMART goals and fancy investment/trading plans don't make any difference whatsoever.
But they sure make you look "educated"!
Financially literate? I not so sure...
Smol,
ReplyDeleteMost sinkies (ok everybody around the world as well) don't want plans, they don't want strategies. They want sure-win model answers. That has worked for past 10-yr series, or 20, or 30. Lol.
More people have lost more money following Rich Dad than Poor Dad. ;)
The importance of self-awareness and mindset. Knowing which field to go to; knowing which game to play; knowing whether you should even play.
I prefer to take a more philosophical & broad mindset approach.
Those ppl flexing diamond hands in 2020 & 2021 ... hope they're wearing asbestos gloves. Diamond hands means being able to hold thru -50% drops, -70%, -90%. Have they asked their stomach whether it's ok with such drops? Did they structure their networth such that they can survive & recover if an asset class or 2 drops -80%?
Spur,
DeleteMy contribution to the community is to play the role of the 2 dots in the Tao symbol ;)
When people asked how much they need to FIRE? Others replied with "precision" in numbers.
I asked, "How you know your stomach full and had enough?"
When others seek advice from others what shoes they should wear?
I poked, "What shoes fit your own feet you own self don't know?"
I suspect most casual "religious" people have forgotten their own faiths the moment they seek FIRE to ESCAPE...
All major faiths have passages and teachings about wealth management. (Religions also need money to survive!)
FIRE to ACHIEVE is all about spirituality and philosophy. But that's no fun as its as crystal as mud...
P.S. Those who expect cookie-cutter 10 year series answer won't come back to this watering hole. Those who like to talk "male-chicken" on the other hand...
LOL!
Not based on one Plan. Have Plan A, B and C. Likely one of them will succeed. I thought Hope is not a strategy until this video. LoL!
ReplyDeleteCW,
DeleteYour comment and my blog post are good examples of ink blots and ice cubes in a glass - we see what we wanted to see ;)
No where in the video were the words "Hope" or "Edge" mentioned.
Yet all I see is "Edge"; and you saw "Hope"???
Ah! Your "strategy" is throw shit at the wall. Throw enough, some of it will eventually stick!
Interesting...
I agree with you - hope is NOT a strategy!!!
Smol,
DeleteDepends on the consistency. Too watery and it'll just slide down. Too hard and it'll just bounce off.
What? Never play with mud as kids?
Thus can you turn Hope into Edge!
PS: The video did stress on tweaking. How many here still remember the old PDCA cycle buzzword?
Spur,
DeleteEww,,,
Nope, I'm not really into mud... But if its jello wrestling, I'm in!
Talking about Plan, Do, Check, Act - I often find most weak managers get "stuck" at the "analysis" stage - never mind if we ever get to planning!
Plans come AFTER we have made a decision...
But nothing gets done if nobody wants to make a bloody DECISION!!!
That's when the Leader emerges ;)
Its back to whether leaders are born or trained...
Are profitable investors/traders born or trained???
To make everyone feel better, let's just pin it on Luck!
Profitable investors/traders are either self trained or trainer-guided. Hmm .. sound like Gym training where you engage personal trainer to shape up. Any investment personal trainer for hire? :-)
DeleteCW,
DeleteProfessional traders and investors, if lucky, got mentors to guide and coach them.
But no free lunch. If you don't perform despite the training and coaching, you're out!
Its like real estate and insurance agency bosses. Why do they spend their valuable time training and coaching their underlings?
Overriding commissions!
The more their underlings sell, the more they earn as agency bosses ;)
Its leverage on other people's time/talent!
You know your course/training got "substance" is when they kick non-performers out of the course.
But when a course anyone and everyone can get in... And no one ever gets kicked out...
LOL!
P.S. Whenever we hear someone says its their mission or goal in life to help create X numbers of millionaires, I hope we can hear the snake oil alarms ringing in our heads!
Famous Quotes:
ReplyDeleteNo plan survives first contact with the enemy.
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
AT_AT,
DeleteThose patronizing know-it-all who like to parrot, "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail"; when they encountered major disappointments or misfortunes in their lives, that's when they'll discover HUMILITY.
If all we need are goals and plans, the first to go will be religions.
Wait....
And I'm atheist!?
There's this S'pore-born American who recently recounted his NS experience and contrasts it with his current US Marines training.
DeleteHe mentioned that SAF training exercises were too scripted & events were expected to occur according to plan. Hmm.
Spur,
DeleteThe British would argue its not their fault for Singapore's fall...
Look! Its the Japanese's fault!!!
They were "supposed" to come from the sea!
Hello!
SmOl
ReplyDeleteActually market up u win money, market down u lose money, u not too bad le.
There are instances where market up I also lose money and market down I lose my pants....
Shit...
I have ask myself what is my circle of competence so many times, that I forget what's my answer.
Your edge is only your edge when u survive and thrive.
What u think is a edge is useless, so I guess people like me who are edgeless just need to be humble and buy insurance. And invest in boring ways. Diversity, keep cash, buy when is a bear etc
Sillyinvestor,
DeleteKnowing our strengths and weaknesses is already an edge over others!
When we know what shoes to fit our own feet, we are already on our way towards going our own path ;)
Many say they seek "freedom"; "independence"; and what not in this community.
But if we have to seek "affirmation"; "advice"; "permission"; and all sorts of pats on the head before we can proceed, the painful truth is we have not made it even to BASE CAMP.
Never mind even starting the actual climbing...
Ah Kong also learnt the hard way on economic strategy. On hindsight, fortunate that we keep manufacturing 20% of gdp or our covid winter will be very tough. Now we are see a renaissance of manufacturing as a key SG economic pillar.
ReplyDeleteLim Swee Say catch phrase of Cheaper better faster is outdated. Business leaders and govts are asking how to ensure minimum supply disruption? Who are the partners i can trust? How to spread risk? New topic for Harvard business review after COVID.
Yap strategy needs tweaking over time to stay relevant in this ever changing world.
Interestingly, this is the same mindset i have when come to my own investment. Always so much to learn and try out.
AT_AT,
DeleteThat's where so many retail "investors" trip up on Buy-and-Hold...
Its BUY, then periodically - check; review; monitor; tweak; adjust; listen to crash got sound; or whatever we prefer to call ourselves - then if the original thesis to buy still makes sense, HOLD.
Buy-and-Forget (Hold) with an index is not the same with individual stocks.
That's why snake oils when shilling LONG TERM investing, never use charts of individual stocks ;)
We also never hear of Passive Investing in individual stocks...
But many retail "investors" are doing precisely that!
Nope, a plan is not a strategy!
Harry Kissinger new book on SG election in my opinion is spot on. Why some monopoly companies bother to commission customers satisfaction surveys and act on them seriously? Because they are smart 😆 dun be blinded by own success 👍 inputs to tweak strategy
ReplyDeleteAT_AT,
DeleteMy takes is that near "monopoly" companies will only "tweak" when under threat and duress.
I sometimes wonder what good those customer satisfaction surveys will do... Are they mere PR stunts or more for "wayang"?
Remember the time when the public were complaining on the difficulty of getting taxis in Singapore before Uber?
Draconian rules were implemented to "force" taxi drivers to clock a minimum daily mileage!?
Still can't get taxis?
Just throw more licences to allow more taxi companies to come in. Easy! Just throw more shit on the wall!
That's the cycle - small innovative companies become big; then they stagnant and live on old glories; and eventually get replaced by more nimble upstarts.
SPH is another good example. Any old fogey who is a fan of Peter Lynch's kicking the tyres style of investing would have divested it long ago!
I guess most retail "investors" here are more Warren Buffett fans - if Warren Buffett buys newspapers... I'm in it for the LONG TERM too!
Never mind when was the last time you saw your grandchildren reading a hardcopy newspaper?
Hi SMOL, no company last forever. Dun forget the roots (DNA) when growing from a startup to a monopoly which is customer intimacy will play a huge role. Once forgot the roots, the decline will accelerate.
ReplyDeleteOn SPH, great lesson for me. Enter at a discounted price I thought that will be ok for news monopoly with some side businesses. Got further sold down during covid to $1, i just grabbed more cos i see the value of the remaining businesses. Rest is history. Strategy no change, focus on value, grab when opportunities knocked. Cash is king if use wisely.
AT_AT,
DeleteIts all about the price we enter, and the price we sell.
Those who entered SPH at $4 would console themselves don't time the market, anytime is a good time to enter...
They are in it for the LONG TERM! One day they'll breakeven...
Those who bought SPH at $1.20 just want to make money ;)
Filthy market timers letting cash rot in the bank until an opportunity comes along!