Friday 29 April 2022

Take Risks



  1. If we lose, make sure we won't die from taking those risks. Dead person cannot guide.

    1. CW,

      We ask big daddy to bail us out?

      Then again, we have to be "too big to fail"...


      Lucky Singaporeans got CPF that creditors cannot touch!

      Won't die one!

  2. Smol,

    The price of doubling or tripling your entire portfolio into 7 & 8 figures is experiencing -50% drops along the way. :P

    The conservative investment approach (pink line) gives 4% p.a. (hmm that sounds familiar lol!) ... thru GFC, oil boom, taper tantrum, euro debt crisis, oil collapse, trade war, wuhan virus, and now oil boom & start of QT.

    $100K in Jan 2008 will be $175K today.

    S&P500 (blue line) gives 7.8% p.a.
    $100K will be $293K today, and $1,000 a month DCA for 30 yrs will result in $1.44M.

    But if started on 1st Jan 2008, you'd have underperformed the conservative fellow for 9 years, besides having some mental breakdown in Mar 2009 at -55% lol.

    Everybody's risk tolerance & time horizon is different, so the best risks for someone is the one that is "right" for him. (Need, Ability, Willingness)

    Risk mgmt & risk approach is another big topic. Position sizing, asset allocations/diversification, scaling in, scaling out, regular re-assessments, tripwires (trailing stops, hard stops, take profits, negation or fulfillment of thesis).

    1. Spur,


      Its a journey of personal discovery ;)

      We are familiar with capitulation as in chop fingers for those on the Earn More path, but there's "capitulation" on the Save More path too...

      I already see sharks and snake oils circling around the CPF flock. It doesn't take much to "poison the well" by nudging the CPF voluntary savers to switch to CPFIS by showing what you have shown!

      Classic Fear Of Missing Out on the "extra" 4% invested with equities compounded by decades!!!

      I mean one can be very happy being a CPF millionaire at age 65 through Save More.

      That's provided you don't succumb to the Isaac Newton "syndrome" as in you can't stand knowing people more idiot than you, are doing better financially than you!?

      Hence we see old fogeys in their 60s who have been Save More all their lives, all of sudden switch to Earn More flushed with retirement funds!?

      I mean those who are with the 1m65 camp must hope its a severe bear market when they reach 65...

      If its the biggest bull market ever, one would feel pretty left out...

      Despite being a CPF millionaire...

  3. Wow! Sound like we need weekends course on taking risks and rewards for investing. :-)

    1. CW,

      No need lah!

      Don't we have enough snake oils out there?

      The only difference is they downplay the risk taking part...

      The spin its "easy"!

      Anyone or everyone can do it!

      If 5 minutes a day is too much effort, hey! We have passive you know?



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