For those new, just starting on career with long time horizon ... yeah, you don't have to bother with ATHs or ATLs. ;)
It's only old foggies, those with shorter timeframes, or those who are approaching their FI target & planning to take it easy ... who perhaps need to do something.
For old foggies who have more than enough FI or FU funds in safe assets like cash & SGS, they also don't need to bother about ATHs or ATLs in their risk assets lol. ;)
To attract jade, I need to be a little rhetorical when throwing stones ;)
1. Youths starting out have no clue about ceilings or floorings - which is great for that's their strength!
Its when they have been "poisoned" by their own track records that they start to tell themselves, "Idiot! I should have bought/sold more that time!"
2) Yup. Imagine this is 2007 and after a very successful and profitable 40 year buy and hold strategy, and wishing to cash out your portfolio in 2008 at age 65 to enjoy your retirement without worries....
Then Lehman crisis struck.
Of course the consolation is we don't lose money just as long we wait another 10 over years to get back where we were in 2007.
So its moving the goal posts to age 75 then!
3) Ah! Who doesn't want be like Warren Buffett with unlimited funds? We have quite a few Tarzans like that in our community. You know, if the "vehicle" they bought goes further south in prices, they'll buy more!
I have enough - but that's more in spirituality and philosophy.
I'll have to go back to full time work if I practice averaging down :(
Just stay long and strong, dont sell and buy yhr deep slowly, buy only solid growth stock, dont anyhow buy. It is timne in the market, not timed thew market. Ask a guy who invest 10 yrs ago, that is me. U never loss. Today u may appear like u loss, but over time dow always go higher given time. Rememebr to take profit every 2X. that is how i escape big losses and use that to buy when market dip. See u in 2032. And yes do buy some crypto. I did in 2017. till today big drop i am still up 4X. Dont listen to other that crypto gg to zero. buy some u will be glad, buy top shit coin and btc and eth. esp LUNA and SOL. thk me in the future.
Today u may appear like u loss - unrealised losses?
My bad. U never loss - that's power or what!?
Congrats on your 4X on cryptos! I've known a few youths who became crypto millionaires within the last 5 years in our community. And they took some profits before the big drop.
I guess for cryptos, time in the market would matter less?
ATHs and ATLs are something that we will only know in hindsight.
As an old fogey, I had thought that the Covid induced bear (ATL) in Mar 2020 was my last window of opportunity to acquire my "to have" list of stocks. But I didnt have the crystal ball to see that it was at ATL in Mar and that it will start to U turn. And more importantly, my guts only enabled me to deploy 30% of my warchest, and the nerves and self doubt got the better of me.
Will this time be different? Yes, being nearer to retirement doesnt help the "confidence" part. Guts will be in more limited supply although warchest may be bigger. Was joking with wife that if recession does hit us in one or two years time, and property prices tanked, perhaps we should be looking at property instead.
Anyhow, for there to be sellers, there must be buyers. Just be sure to be in a position of the buyers when sales season starts.
It is ok to be holding cash earning 2 to 3% interest, at any time. Cash has the intangible benefits of making you happy and giving peace of mind. The real use of it of course is when opportunity comes a knocking.
ATH and ATL are mere snapshots in time for most of us to glow or growl at our portfolios.
It doesn't matter since we most of us are not taking any actions whatsoever. Wink.
But it does matter to those who panic sell at the lows in capitulation...
Or those who bought at the peak in full FOMO mode...
Then there are the professional craftsmen who manage to sell near ATH and buy near ATL - I'm very impressed with Bill Ackman who made 4 billions during the March 2020 pandemic crisis!
The short (hedge) early 2020 was impressive enough. But the bet that the market would melt up from March 2020 was even more impressive!!!
For landowners, I would think they would continue to pay 2/20 for shepherds like him than to rely on low cost passive funds/ETFs!
Talent is talent!
By the way, I hope readers at this watering hole can re-read your last sentence and reflect.
There's a reason why youths who don't know what cannot be done often outperform old fogeys (in percentages) during a bull market.
You and I have taken our share of "risks" during our youthful days climbing up the mountain. Wink.
On the flip side, old fogeys who are strolling down the mountain often outperform youths during a bear market...
The secret sauce? We have cash rotting somewhere.
Where does cash come from when we are retired from our day job?
From dividends, rental incomes, interests from banks/bonds; etc.
But the big chunk is often from taking profits along the way. Wink.
There's no need for precision at 2 decimal places.
All time high can boost in investment forums and all time low too busy and no time to visit forums
ReplyDeleteCW,
DeleteYes!
We know who they are ;)
No action; but talk a lot!
All time high - buy less, all time low - buy more
ReplyDeleteDaniel Yip,
DeleteDollar cost averaging?
Mathematically, the strategy is sound; I can't argue with it.
The problem it requires DISCIPLINE.
Just look at our exercise, weight loss or diet plans...
If only all we need to succeed in life is just SMART goal settings!
Smol,
ReplyDeleteLet me offer a counterpoint.
For those new, just starting on career with long time horizon ... yeah, you don't have to bother with ATHs or ATLs. ;)
It's only old foggies, those with shorter timeframes, or those who are approaching their FI target & planning to take it easy ... who perhaps need to do something.
For old foggies who have more than enough FI or FU funds in safe assets like cash & SGS, they also don't need to bother about ATHs or ATLs in their risk assets lol. ;)
Spur,
DeleteTo attract jade, I need to be a little rhetorical when throwing stones ;)
1. Youths starting out have no clue about ceilings or floorings - which is great for that's their strength!
Its when they have been "poisoned" by their own track records that they start to tell themselves, "Idiot! I should have bought/sold more that time!"
2) Yup. Imagine this is 2007 and after a very successful and profitable 40 year buy and hold strategy, and wishing to cash out your portfolio in 2008 at age 65 to enjoy your retirement without worries....
Then Lehman crisis struck.
Of course the consolation is we don't lose money just as long we wait another 10 over years to get back where we were in 2007.
So its moving the goal posts to age 75 then!
3) Ah! Who doesn't want be like Warren Buffett with unlimited funds? We have quite a few Tarzans like that in our community. You know, if the "vehicle" they bought goes further south in prices, they'll buy more!
I have enough - but that's more in spirituality and philosophy.
I'll have to go back to full time work if I practice averaging down :(
I'm only a nano landowner.
LOL!
Just stay long and strong, dont sell and buy yhr deep slowly, buy only solid growth stock, dont anyhow buy. It is timne in the market, not timed thew market. Ask a guy who invest 10 yrs ago, that is me. U never loss. Today u may appear like u loss, but over time dow always go higher given time. Rememebr to take profit every 2X. that is how i escape big losses and use that to buy when market dip. See u in 2032.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes do buy some crypto. I did in 2017. till today big drop i am still up 4X. Dont listen to other that crypto gg to zero. buy some u will be glad, buy top shit coin and btc and eth. esp LUNA and SOL. thk me in the future.
victor
Victor,
DeleteAh yes!
Only buy stocks that go up!?
Stay strong; don't sell.
Remember to take profit every 2X.
Wait. Did I read that correctly?
I escape BIG losses - so there's small losses?
Today u may appear like u loss - unrealised losses?
My bad. U never loss - that's power or what!?
Congrats on your 4X on cryptos! I've known a few youths who became crypto millionaires within the last 5 years in our community. And they took some profits before the big drop.
I guess for cryptos, time in the market would matter less?
ATHs and ATLs are something that we will only know in hindsight.
ReplyDeleteAs an old fogey, I had thought that the Covid induced bear (ATL) in Mar 2020 was my last window of opportunity to acquire my "to have" list of stocks. But I didnt have the crystal ball to see that it was at ATL in Mar and that it will start to U turn. And more importantly, my guts only enabled me to deploy 30% of my warchest, and the nerves and self doubt got the better of me.
Will this time be different? Yes, being nearer to retirement doesnt help the "confidence" part. Guts will be in more limited supply although warchest may be bigger. Was joking with wife that if recession does hit us in one or two years time, and property prices tanked, perhaps we should be looking at property instead.
Anyhow, for there to be sellers, there must be buyers. Just be sure to be in a position of the buyers when sales season starts.
It is ok to be holding cash earning 2 to 3% interest, at any time. Cash has the intangible benefits of making you happy and giving peace of mind. The real use of it of course is when opportunity comes a knocking.
mysecretinvestment,
DeleteMy sentiments exactly.
ATH and ATL are mere snapshots in time for most of us to glow or growl at our portfolios.
It doesn't matter since we most of us are not taking any actions whatsoever. Wink.
But it does matter to those who panic sell at the lows in capitulation...
Or those who bought at the peak in full FOMO mode...
Then there are the professional craftsmen who manage to sell near ATH and buy near ATL - I'm very impressed with Bill Ackman who made 4 billions during the March 2020 pandemic crisis!
The short (hedge) early 2020 was impressive enough. But the bet that the market would melt up from March 2020 was even more impressive!!!
For landowners, I would think they would continue to pay 2/20 for shepherds like him than to rely on low cost passive funds/ETFs!
Talent is talent!
By the way, I hope readers at this watering hole can re-read your last sentence and reflect.
There's a reason why youths who don't know what cannot be done often outperform old fogeys (in percentages) during a bull market.
You and I have taken our share of "risks" during our youthful days climbing up the mountain. Wink.
On the flip side, old fogeys who are strolling down the mountain often outperform youths during a bear market...
The secret sauce? We have cash rotting somewhere.
Where does cash come from when we are retired from our day job?
From dividends, rental incomes, interests from banks/bonds; etc.
But the big chunk is often from taking profits along the way. Wink.
There's no need for precision at 2 decimal places.
Sell near ATH and buy near ATL good enough!