Monday, 22 March 2021

Everyone Is A Speculator - Whether You Like It Or Not

 

Last week, after a bout of heavy rain, I noticed there were a swarm of scary ants along a stretch of pavement I'm walking on.


Ah! Its the Marauder ants.





This specie of ants is famous for its major and super major "soldier" ants.

You can spot them on the pic above.


We don't normally see the super majors. Today I guess there are out in full force to protect their worker ant sisters who were busy repairing/evacuating their flooded nest due to the heavy downfall.


These soldier ants don't need to "work" like their worker ant sisters. They have only one task - defend the colony against intruders. 


They reminded me of the knights in medieval Europe or samurais in feudal Japan.


Peasants toil the fields so they can feed their overlord, who in turn hire these sellswords to protect their realm and territory. 

 

The naive peasant may think its "safer" to be a peasant as the warrior class has to put their lives in harm's way all the time.

Hello, when was the last time peasants were not called up to be cannon fodder during a war or battle?


Even if the peasant is lucky not to be conscripted into battle, if your knights or samurais lost, you think the enemy force will not rape or pillage your lands just because you're a docile peasant?


In the realm of investing/trading, we have the two classes too.

Earn more - speculators, investors, traders; etc.

Save more - put money under a mattress, at a savings bank, or into pension schemes.


Those who opened savings accounts at banks never knew they were on the hook like equity or bond investors of the same bank - just ask savers who put money into Iceland and Cyprus banks. 

"But we are not investors!" 

I'm sure some savers may cry in disbelief.


Since the 2008 Great Financial Recession, central bankers all over the world have bailed out the speculators. 

If you owned equities or properties, you're not complaining, are you?

You got bailed out too. Wink.

But if you're a saver, you got screwed.

Once upon a time you can survive on a 3-4% relatively "risk-free" normalised interest rate environment. 

Now? 

With near zero interest rates, you are "forced" to become an "investor".  Once you touched any "Earn More" financial products, you'll soon learn there's a REAL risk of capital destruction. 

Again, just ask those who "invested" in Lehman minibonds or Hyflux perpetuals... I bet they never understood fully the risks they were taking on for that extra few percentage in yields...


How about government pensions?

Surely they must be safe!

Eh....

What assets do pension funds invest in?


There you go.

Even if you never directly invests in anything "risky" like equities or properties, indirectly, just as long you are saving into a pension scheme, you are just as liable for all the risks that speculators take!

Minus the spoils of war. Ouch!


Back to my Marauder ants.

So if got choice, do you still want to be a worker ant because its "safer"? 








 

12 comments:

  1. Hi SMOL

    Since everyone will die at the end of the day, might as well get the best out of your life right? Since everyone will get "scammed" at the end of the day, might as well go for the fastest and enjoyment return first :D

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. B,

      Well, there are those who believe if they are faithful, they'll never die ;)

      Either a spaceship will come down to bring them to Happyland, or they are worthy to be brought back from the dead...


      No. Nothing so fatalistic.

      I just don't want to be the one toiling in peace time; during wartime I'm still called out to be cannon fodder.

      If we all die never mind.

      But in the event we lucky win the war, my only "reward" is to return back to toiling the fields all over again? Hello!

      If like that I might as well be a sellsword.

      I'll fight.

      But I'll demand gold, land, and titles if we win!

      I'll be a cherry blossom ;)

      Delete
  2. Smol, From the ant perspective.

    Is there really a choice? As human, we might be able to "train"

    There is a limit to what we can do to control. Is a fine line between what we can control and sacrifice, and delusional about what we can do.




    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sillyinvestor,

      Great question!

      Who better to answer it than from an educator's perspective?

      Is education to help the student discover their own potentials?

      Or is it just a tool for landowners to churn out what they need?

      You know, when we need lots of engineers for infrastructure building, we "sing" the benefits of engineering...

      When we need IT professionals, we "pivot" towards computing and coding wannebes ;)


      Of course not anyone and everyone can be an investor or trader, never mind being a speculator!

      That never seemed to stop anyone though.

      Armed with just a weekend course or workshop, how many believed if you think you can, you can!?

      There's something to be said about the "motivational" skills of snake oils and dream peddlers, isn't it?


      Its back to the chicken and egg question of whether top salesmen are born or trained?

      Are entrepreneurs born or trained?


      That's why the financial freedom journey is a journey of self discovery isn't it?


      P.S. Singapore is a meritocracy which is great! There are some cultures and countries where even today, if you are born into a certain social economic class, like the worker ants, that's it.

      There is a choice. You emigrate to Singapore :)



      Delete
  3. Hi Smol,

    Fair enough statement. We are on the same page. No further to discuss the 2 extreme ends.

    Plenty of life lies in between. We decide which side we want to learn ourselves to.

    If u can emigrate to Singapore, is it purely a choice?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sillyinvestor,

      Today, North Korea is the only country I can think of that still shoots its own citizens if they try to "emigrate" to other countries.

      In the 70s, all communists countries do that too. Which is kind of strange when on one hand you say communist system is paradise on earth, yet when people try to leave, you machine gun them down...

      Look at China and Vietnam today. Still communist, but they allow their citizens to emigrate - no problem.

      Why? Confidence ;)


      Its the same for individuals. If we have confidence we can do better or be happier in another country, we would emigrate, no?

      There was a former colleague who kept complaining about our company for 5 years. One day I asked why is she still here? For 6 months she never talked to me. Finally some peace and quiet! LOL!


      Everything is a choice.

      Not making a decision is a choice.

      Procrastination is a choice.

      Denial is a choice.


      Look at Myanmar. The citizens there are making a choice.

      Side with the military?

      Stay and resist on the streets while risking prison time and being shot at?

      Keep mouth shut and stay indoors?

      Emigrate out?

      Delete
  4. Current SG saving system is still attractive for save or retail investors who have 2.5% CAGR long-term saving as their investing goal. See the record CPF voluntary top up last year! Why take MORE risks to invest when you can become 1M65 or 4M65 by saving?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CW,

      Saving is not investing; investing is not saving.

      I like to argue with the STOP sign.

      Funny how some can salivate on 2.5% CARG... (I think I don't bring up inflation adjusted or REAL yields)

      I've poked that if a person can earn and save $50K a year, in 20 years he will be a millionaire just be putting the money under a mattress.

      You mean without a measly 2.5% CARG one cannot be a millionaire other wise?

      Is forsaking that 2.5% really that high an opportunity cost when we can access our own money anytime we want? No need to apply or ask permission to access our own money?

      Some people cannot read statistics.

      I've pointed out some in our community have mistakenly counted their yearly capital injections as part of their portfolio "returns"???

      Start portfolio with $50K. Never invest. Next year add $50K. Look! My portfolio has doubled!!! I power or what? I got a 2 bagger through "investing"!!!

      Is 1M65 dependent on the 2.5% or 4%? Or more on the CPF members' EARNING power and SAVING discipline? You do the math.


      To read a person, I go for his motivation.

      That's why I don't pay much attention to parrots. I go to the source.

      Everyone does thing for a reason. Even "charity".

      I definitely do not blog to help others get rich or be a millionaire!

      LOL!

      Delete
    2. Hi SMOL,

      I still remember decades ago when I asked my mum how do older folks suss out what sort of person any given individual is. With more life experience now, I go straight to the motivations. It is telling.

      Affirmation. Acceptance by others. Greed. Love. The need to be worshipped. Achievements. Vain-glory. All is crystal clear.

      Delete
    3. Unintelligent Nerd,

      Those who have studied social sciences have an advantage.

      Then again maybe no. Many don't know how to apply their learnings onto the real world outside of academia...

      Just like you can major in Literature yet be clueless on human nature...

      Its part of EQ.

      Illiterate but understand human nature (just don't know the proper academic definitions), life is less daunting.


      Just this weekend, I told a joke to a sporting couple that ALL men are salesmen.

      If not how to convince the women to marry us?

      Those men weak in sales (lelong themselves) either are single or have to "buy" their wives. Ah ber then?

      Wait a minute.

      I'm single.

      I'm an idiot!

      I just roasted myself.

      LOL!

      Delete
    4. Hi SMOL,

      *Eh hem* Perhaps some salesmen prefer to clinch many small deals instead of one big deal?

      Lol.

      Delete
    5. Rainbow girl,

      LOL!

      If you're not careful, you'll be the most popular girl at this watering hole!


      Some men can't catch fish; some men catch and release.

      Some men want fish; some men just like fishing ;)


      Delete

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