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Friday, 6 July 2018

Well, that's policy risk for you!

And I thought volatility for today would come from the trade war tariffs... Plus the Non-Farm Payrolls tonight since I'm more into forex in recent years.

Not everyday we see STI component stocks swan dived -10% to -15% right?

And you thought big cap stocks can't behave like penny stocks... (There's a reason why I prefer to use big caps instead of blue chips to pigeon-hole stocks. I believe in the power of words to influence our minds)

In forex, after living through the EUR/CHF (Euro/Swiss) policy change by the Swiss Central Bank not to defend its floor (when it previously reassured the market it would) several years ago - where several foreign forex brokers went belly up - I had the fear of policy changes beaten into me.

(I benefitted from the above as I was in the EUR/USD pair. Although I made money, it was pure dumb luck as it could easily have been the other way round)

For equities, we say don't fight the Fed.

For Singapore properties, I guess if you didn't already know, you don't fight big daddy.

Its not new. Just ask veteran property speculators.

Remember my Chiang Mai vacation post about rental bikes being an eyesore?

Well, the policy change by big daddy some months later didn't come as a surprise to me. Wink.  

If all you did was to listen to vested interests telling you better buy property now or else... I guess studying past big daddy decisions on property boosting and cooling measures can be healthy to your pockets...

Investors like Singapore because of stability

You figure out why.


  1. Lucky for late shoppers who managed to grab them cheaper. Be nice to property agents

    1. CW,

      Big daddy must be feeling slighted by the vested interests.

      You see me "transparent" is it?

      You know how many rounds of cooling measures before the prices finally came down?

      If prices went back up to where it were before, where to put my face?


      Those who got married in 2009 were lucky or what?

      Sometimes being lucky is better than being "smart" ;)

  2. Hoho policy risk ... Now now don't go putting nightmares into those who have been diligently topping up CPF LOL!

    Anyway look at it as a gift from big daddy to buy property counters --- mid-year bonus or GSS hahaha!

    Although this may affect my plan to sell my mini condo later this year ... See how out goes 😉

    And how come buyers were *running* into showrooms last night just to pay lower upfront absd?

    From the crowds pretty apparent most are hdb upgraders & hence looking for replacement homes. Don't they know they can claim back the absd when they sell off their 1st home?

    And in the next few weeks with depressed sales developers may offer bigger discounts to offset the increased absd...

    1. Spur,

      Now who is the one trying to put the "fear of regime change" into the hearts of those straightline extrapolators?

      Won't happen one?


      What just happened with our Northern neighbour?

      Policies can be reversed, decisions can be changed, and old complaints can be put back on the table to be revisited again...

      First time upgraders lah. Never underestimate the power of Fear of Missing Out!

      All that "running" and "huffing and puffing", they'll learn when they realised their neighbour bought the same apartment several years later at much lower prices than them.

      Same old, same old.

      Veteran stock investors don't chase IPOs. Veteran property investors don't buy from new launches ;)

  3. Hi hi smol,

    Actually, I find policy risk premium.going to get higher and u mentioned Singapore being predictable as compared to ...

    Well maybe ...

    But I find a lot of policy communication misteps ... Coming especially from the 4G.

    Let's look beyond investment, let's say suddenly they announce they are going to take away Psle, and let pupils have through train to o levels...

    Who is going to get hit most?

    I think I am going to miss the 1-3G leaders

    1. Sillyinvestors,

      I only mentioned "INVESTORS" like Singapore for its stability.

      How many countries out there have the same party running the show for 50 years and more?

      Compared to our neighbours, Singapore is like the Rock of Gilbralta when it comes to political risks.

      No military coups, no regime changes, no presidents/prime ministers impeached and went to jail...

      As for what you say, its coming...

      Its clear big daddy realised the old way of producing executives and managers for MNCs may not be the right path going forward...

      If we want foreign talents to work for Singaporean landowners, and not Singaporeans working for foreign landowners, our youths may need to be more grey and less precision minded.

      To be dreamers; not goal oriented ;)

      Proof? Now we don't stress paper qualifications; the buzz word is COMPETENCE ;)

      Idiot! The wind finally blew in my direction when I got out of the matrix :(

    2. Hahaha smol,

      Really? I dun share your optimism. Out of matrix? More liking using matrick for grey areas, fidging between trading and value investing.

      Matrix tick for grab and Uber so they cannot merge (like real)
      Matrix tick for AbDS
      Matrix tick for this and that but the big problem is they cannot explain themselves properly

      They cannot stand their ground.

      Cannot explain why MP has parking privilleg, cannot explain how they are going to stop Uber leaving

    3. Sillyinvestor,

      I'm pleasantly surprised at the number of retailers in the electricity market liberalisation pilot testing ;)

      Make a wild guess why they allow more telcos in to break the oligopoly? When all 3 existing telcos can trace their heritage back to big daddy?

      The MRT thing is one of the few "setbacks" when it comes to private sector commercialisation of public services and govt owned companies.

      Once we stablised it and make some "crash got sound" changes, it will be returned to the private sector and relisted again ;)

      Thatcherism has a lot in common with big daddy's DNA. I'm with them on this regard - I don't like big governments running everything.

      Just observe the trend towards liberalisation ;)

      For this to work, big daddy need to ween youths off waiting for others to tell them what to do - or the 10 year series prepared answers mindset.

      When youths can think for themselves, they will start chasing rainbows on their own!

      We don't want all the opportunities from liberalisation to go to foreign landowners/dreamers, do we?

    4. Oh!

      What big daddy meant is uber sell to Grab cannot. But uber sell to another party "boleh".

      Want to have competiion mah.

      You think why before uber came, big daddy awarded so many taxi licences to how many taxi companies to compete with ComfortDelgro?

      Its like propety cooling and boosting measures by big daddy. Once you catch how big daddy thinks, you'll see a trend ;)

      Then we just have to decide to either fight big daddy, or to go along for the ride.


  4. The above is one of the reasons why I do not follow the crowd in respect of the policy changes. It's better to be a free-willed individual without worries in my perspective. Life is short and it's better to do things based on one's preference.


    1. Ben,

      You're a hippee!

      Let's patiently wait for marijuana to be legalised in Singapore ;)

      Then we can soar into the heavans in our yellow submarines!


  5. SMOL,

    I will not be interested in such stuff. It is too "high" for me and likely to cut short my journey. I will rather be a simple peasant like what AK mentioned. Simplicity is my humble fare and cup of tea.

    To each of our own.


    1. Ben,

      Ah! "So des ne"!

      Regular animals at this watering hole are used to what I just did.

      I'm alwaya "verifying" ;)

      To diversity!


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