Friday 11 November 2022

Spear and Shield Moment


Sometimes it's a bit funny and awkward to see "amateur" snake oils trying to spin anytime is a good time to invest for the LONG TERM...

You know, the Time in the Market versus Timing the Market argument.

How even if you have entered the markets at the worst possible moments (market tops), you'll still come out "profitable" eventually because...

Get ready.

Stocks always go up in the LONG TERM!

OK, even if you swallowed hook, line, and sinker the spin that entries don't matter, pray tell why should you sign up for any Masterclasses then?

I mean if it's so idiot proof, then anyone and everyone can do it by themselves. No?

Ding! That's your spear and shield moment. Wink.

That's where snake oils like me will face-palm and go, 

"No! That's not how you sell LONG TERM investing lah!

Cannot oversell until like that!"

And that's me coming from the Timing the Market camp...



  1. Smol,

    For most investors & wannabes, their emotions will kill them faster than time or timing lol.

    Even if they say their time horizon is 30 years, most people's mental time horizon is 1 month to 1 year. Many capitulate if markets tank -20% let alone -50%, and either sell out near the lows, or stop investing new monies & miss out on rare wealth acceleration periods.

    Hence the tale of Peter Lynch saying that even though he managed 29% CAGR, the average investor in his fund only achieved 7% CAGR. The company, Fidelity, one up him to say that according to their client records, the average investor in Lynch's Magellan Fund actually lost money.

    Finally, even if the investor has got his emotions under control, there's the question of what he invests & sticks with. 30 years in China index fund or stocks like NOL, SPH, SMRT, Singtel, Singpost will convert that investor into voluntary CPF topup lol.

    1. Spur,


      That's why snake oils only focus on the Method part of the 3 Ms - it's a lot easier to sell to the Japanese weekend golfers who are more interested in looking good with the latest and mostest ;)

      The Money (management) part only few better snake oils mention a bit. That's tricky as the more you talk about it, the more the bei kambings in your sales funnel will run away! LOL!

      As for the Mind part that you correctly highlighted, if LONG TERM investing were so easy, wouldn't we be swarmed by financially free old fogeys today?

      You mean no one believed or talked about LONG TERM investing in the 80s or 90s???

      The Mind part how to teach?

      Its back to the question whether salespersons or entrepreneurs are born or trained...

      That's why I'm a cheerleader of "crash got sound"!

      Use our heads and "long" the wall.

      If you survive; you survive.

      If you capitulate; you capitulate.

      Over time, we'll know what poisons safe for us as we got natural resistance; which vehicles suit us better; the better path for us - be it Earn More, Save More, or both as omnivore!

  2. Masterclass can change their form to attract new sign ups. Masters themselves also deleveraged and no more shouting leveraged yield for early retirement. Not market or economy timing then what?

    1. CW,

      We snake oils can sell snake oil Masterclasses provided we dangle a "bait" to the bei kambings by promising a better spear gun, a shinier sword, or something.

      And that will be the "edge" (made up one of course) that they can only get from us - and not anywhere else!

      Even if its old wine, must put it in a new bottle mah.

      It's like the Boxer Rebellion where the snake oils spin to the cannon fodders that with just a talisman, you'll be "bullet proof". Don't worry!

      But when you oversell by stating that even if you entered at the worst possible time (market tops), you'll still come out on top!?

      You have just given away your Masterclass "secret" or "edge" away...

      If anyone and everyone can do it, who would sign up for your Masterclass then?

      Those amateurs may need to attend a how to be a snake oil Masterclass themselves!


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