Monday, 5 October 2020

Stocks Only Go Up. Wait!?

Some of you may have heard about the exploits of Dave Portnoy in the US in recent months.

Yes, this modern day pipe piper is leading his horde of millennial day traders bored with the Wuhan virus lockdown, and making tons of money since the lows of March!?

Stocks only go up.

Before you start to laugh or mock him, like the red-faced US media, do first make sure you do not call yourself:

1)  A long term investor.

2)  A buy-and-hold investor.

3)  A passive indexing investor.

Isn't the key cornerstone of your investment thesis is stocks only go up too?

Awkward pause.



  1. Smol,

    I think the other relevant trope for him would be "no such thing as bad publicity"! LOL!

    El Presidente's market worth is US$120M, mostly in his company Barstool Sports, which caters to the ah beng crowd or those who want to indulge their ah beng tendencies. Not something to sniff at!

    Stocks only go up.

    Yup ... but which stocks ... and what timeframe... :P

    How many kept their Amazon stock when it went from $110 to $6?

    1. Spur,

      Let's just say from one snake oil to another, he's a great promoter!

      Sometimes I wonder whether I should start my own church too...

      Eh, you don't come and frighten the children...

      Most already have forgotten Nasdaq 2000. Or the more horrific one for Singapore's STI during our 97 Asian Financial Crisis...

      No, stocks only go up. Trust! Believe! Faith! (Look ma! Brains not needed!)

      Love your example.

      The trick is to use Amazon $6 as index 100. See? Stocks only go up and up, and up!!!

      Never trust statistics that you've not manipulated yourself ;)

    2. This is true for

      1) A long term investor.

      2) A buy-and-hold investor.

      3) A passive indexing investor.

      In Singapore, dividends only ADD up when you just keep them in your bank or CPFIS ! No re-investing on your dividends! Get it? LOL!

    3. CW,


      You lucky investing not like religion during the middle ages... Or you'll be burnt at the stake...

      You dare say DON'T reinvest your dividends???

      You heretic you!


      Long term SPH investors may agree with you though. Reinvesting the dividends back into SPH is like throwing good money after bad money...

      There's a lot of similarity between gambling and investing/trading.

      Reinvesting the dividends is like increasing your bets with your winnings after each hand.

      Which works great if you are on a roll.

      But one losing hand...

      The pro gambler always bank in some profits to ensure he never walks out of the casino with empty pockets.

      The same is true with trading. Many retail amateurs are too quick to increase their trading position sizes once they see their accounts grow.

      Easy come; easy go.

    4. Hi SMOL,

      At first glance, I thought I kena poked.

      Then I realized I:
      - long equities
      - long bonds
      - long metals
      - long cash
      - long crypto

      Phew. Permanent Portfolio permanently protect me from getting poked!

    5. Unintelligent Nerd,

      You'll be surprised there are people 100% vested into equities ONLY, and genuinely believed they are "diversified" just as long they own 100 different stock names with each not exceeding 1% share of their portfolio...


      Cash can be rotting in the bank and be a drag on investment performance.

      Yet cash can be wonderful when there's a fire sale ;)

      Want to be financially savvy?

      Learn our Chinese idioms!

      Water can float the boat; water can also capsize the boat.

      5,000 years of Chinese wisdom is not play play ;)

    6. Hi SMOL,

      Tell me about it. I am also helping out with the Chinese language channel of one crypto project.

      Turns out the CEO has a very good command in the language. He used to be a youtube celebrity.

      These two vids by him are hilarious (see here and here!

    7. Unintelligent Nerd,

      His mandarin is better than mine!

      Yup, that's the future competition.

      In the past, fly with one wing using England was enough. Its an Ang Moh world mah!

      Going forward, flying with BOTH England and China wings a lot less stressful compared with that mono sound person twirling his one wing round and round like a helicopter...

  2. Stocks can only go up,
    We can only get old

  3. Both have some truth and yet, is up to how we define the qns, isn't it.

    Like how u define that we cannot be long term and 3 months or 6 month's window is what we looking at.

    Just like we can grow old and yet not gain a single year of experience

    1. Sillyinvestor,

      Just like a broken clock is "right" 2 times a day?

      That's why Zen is crystal like mud.

      Hence I only say one is true; one is false ;)

      Which can mean anything if the reader don't just read it literally...

      "One" is true. But the same "one" is also false?


      STI at around 2500 now.

      Will it rise up to break 3000 again or will it crash down to break below 2000 next year?

      But if we know for sure STI will be higher 20 years later... Why bother and worry today?

      Then again, will I be around in 20 years' time???

      Its nice to get "philosophical" with investing.

      We need it!

      Especially when staring at red numbers...

  4. STI only go up! Wait? hahaha...

    Why buy and hold when the stock share price will only be running lower because the company already hit "saturation"?

    Just like "women" over "men". Once women truly decide to leave a guy, they make it clean!

    1. Rolf,

      Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned...

      Once a woman's heart towards you is dead, that's that!

      What's worse than believing stocks only go up?

      Its paying fees and commissions to be "sold" that stocks only go up!?


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