Wednesday 4 March 2020
Deja Vu - Has it been this long?
Last night's US Fed "emergency" or inter-meeting rate cut caught me by surprise.
The last time this happend was way back in 2008.
Wait.
Has it been 11 years already?
Wow.
Talk about deja vu..
As for Sars in 2003, that's a generation away as in 17 years!?
If I had a son then, he will be preparing to go to NS soon...
Those of us who had gone through "big wind, big wave", I guess we have a small edge over youth now?
Especially when it comes to decision making and taking action. Wink.
Unless you are one of those veteran retail "investors" who talk and act like its your first year investing experience times 20 or 30 years.
Ouch!
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Yes, older people are more prepared. Lol
ReplyDelete血气方刚的年轻人that go all in then regret when prices drop by half? Even till this age, I still need to claim myself to pace my buying. Just finished setting alert for 50 stocks. Trap set, now wait.
Wonder what is a 10 yrs bear look like?
Calm
DeleteWolfT,
DeleteBeen there, done it.
I remember once upon a time I were a youthful bei kambing, going all-in was a lot of fun in a bull market.
There was constantly this regret I wish I had bought more...
Hence, I discovered leverage and margin account ;)
In percentage terms, was pleasantly surprised it was "easy" to get 20% and more annual returns!?
Now that's the strenght of youth! I don't know what cannot be done :)
Then I discovered gravity :(
And found out stocks can go to zero.
Oh!
LOL!
temperament,
ReplyDeleteIn recent years, there were quite a few formerly "great" money managers who shut their funds after dismal performances in a central bank Juiced" bull market...
All the more respect to those who knew when to "quit" - not when they are down and out - but at the peak of their careers.
Here's looking at Peter Lynch ;)
The sames goes for Liu Wen-Cheng and Jiang Hui.
Its better to "abandon" your fans when they still love you, than to overstay and let your fans "abandon" you...
I hope when I'm at your age 70, I'll have the wisdom to walk away and only "play" with 10% of my networth, just to keep the mind active.
If I were to still hope to make it "big" or try to prove something in percentage terms, then I won't be any different than those aunties and uncles buying Toto in their 80s or 90s...
Why quit at the peak of career? Doesn't it violate the basic principle behind Trend Following?
ReplyDeletehyom,
ReplyDeleteBecause all trends will die one day...
The goal is to buy at the start of a new trend.
The DREAM is to sell at the peak ;)
I think you forgot the england definition of the word - "peak".
Once we've reached the peak, there's no where else to go but down ;)
temperament,
ReplyDeleteLOL!
I guess my poke is too sugar-coated for you to get it ;)
But then, you have a point.
If you gonna live as long as Dr M, you got another 20 years to achieve what you have yet to achieve in the markets ;)
A ten bagger to your name?
Lucky I'm not fan of Liu Wenzheng. Feelings cheated. Got abandoned. LOL.
ReplyDeleteIn practice, nobody knows when is the peak. I hope senior management of the companies I invested in don't try to quit at the peak. If they are winning, don't stop. Keep expanding your business. Otherwise, growth will stop.
Hi SMOL,
ReplyDeleteLook at this: https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/!/goldman-sachs-expect-another-25bp-rate-cut-from-the-fomc-on-march-18-20200304
Might even have more rate cuts in this month. They should learn from history. If one cut doesn't help, more cuts certaintly wouldn't help. Since you know I know it wouldn't help, and they still do it, likely they could have other reasons to do so haha
Cannot assume other people are idiots but I'm a genius!
LP,
DeleteYes, the Fed funds futures have priced in 2 more 25bp rate cuts from the Fed in the coming weeks.
Bank of Canada has also cut rates by 50bp one day later.
Deja vu.
Global interests rates back to zero bound again.
Of course they knew it doesn't work, but if others cut and I alone did not cut, I stupid stupid let my currency strenghten and lose export competiveness for what?
Cannot!
hyom,
ReplyDeleteThat's why it takes widom (or lucky to have someone knock it inside our heads) to recognise our "peaks".
Well, I don't know about you, I think I'll be more worried if the top management of companies I've invested in stay on PAST their peaks ;)
Knowing when to sell is so much harder :(
I'm more impressed with investors who managed to sell near the peaks than those who managed to buy near the bottoms ;)
Buy-and-hold is just a lie we tell ourselves when we knew we fxxked-up...
temperament,
ReplyDeleteWe are on the same page on this topic.
Trading to me is no different from playing mahjong or bridge to keep the mind active.
Its intellectually stimulating when I get my trading thesis right.
I still remember the story you told us about that German billionaire who killed himself for shorting VW shares that went horribly wrong...
Why bet so big when he's already 74 and is the 94th richest person during 2008? What's there more to prove?
To be the 93th richest person?
Enough is never enough for the many.
I do hope I have the wisdom to know enough and recognise when I've reached my peak.
That's when believer and non-believer are one ;)
temperament,
ReplyDeleteYes. He was worth more than 9 billion euros. The losses were "only" a few hundred million euros.
Only he knew the real reasons he did what he did.
But I can empathise when a man's self belief is crushed, there's nothing to live for...
Trading is a surprisingly an effective vehicle for my cultivation. When I let myself be stopped-out, its me humbly giving way to the market.
You'll never hear me saying market is overbought or oversold - that's another way of saying I am right; the market is wrong ;)
I'll say I got shaken out of my positions due to my weak hand or lack of convictions.
Got to give it to the person taking the opposite position from me. Touche!
Less ego; more humbleness.
Baby steps towards Trading with No Mind.
A peak is formed only when something starts declining. So, I don't mind if the top management of the companies I invest in stay on past their peaks as long as it is SLIGHTLY past their peaks and not WAY past their peaks. Same reasoning goes for trading/investing in stocks.
ReplyDeleteSome people quit their career near the top for personal reasons. FIRE people quit to do whatever they want with their lives. I judge myself harshly but try my best to avoid judging others. I am very grateful to high-fliers like shareholder/customer-friendly CEOs, people-caring government ministers who stay on in their career so that selfish people like me can benefit from their work.
hyom,
ReplyDeleteYou're one honest freeloader :)
Interesting.
I treat CEOs and ministers differently from you; I see them shepherds that I can leverage on.
Meow.