Is investing really a cool topic? Hahaha actually except the blogger circle of friends who are I also investors. I seldom want to tell people about investment. Even if someone starts it, I will just act innocent and listen.
The only time I chip in is when my neighbourhood uncle at whampoa talking to other shop owners about investing 10 k to get 15 k
Asking each other how much is put into this business. Leg meuuser and hair salon aunties.
I say uncle, I kaypo, u mind telling more. After a while, I told him he kena ponsai scheme, better quickly run if possible.
Sadly, after my dad passed away, I seldom go back. When I go back that day, that shop folds. Not sure if related
Some of my alert sound. I use some my saving to invest. Reset that alert! I ignore financial news, they only cause more fear and chaos. Next alert come again, I repeat. Have a plan stick to it. See.. no need to use brain.
I do the same even when I am 80. The fun and excitement exceeded the fear. The excitement of see my asset double wahahaha!!
Investing, some got buy no sell and they are merely operating in the same paradigm as those in the savings camp. 30 years X Year 1 experience. No need skills one, just need to click 'Submit order' and 'Confirm Order' button then market will do its magic! LOL.
Heng I off-loaded most counters from Dec to 29 Jan and have been scooping up some bargains. It's like a sale, after buying, they reduce price some more! But I'm chill with my sea of red. Imagine seeing Dairy Farm go down from my '5yr low' entry price of USD5.65 to USD3.67 yesterday. Ouch!
Anyway, it's hard to predict the bottom lah, but if we remember what Ray Dalio says, many happenings are not isolated events. There are patterns. We just have to observe them and find a structure in the chaos. And each time we crash, we scale higher the next. Pain + Reflection = Progress.
I saw a chart on CNBC which shows the 16-day change in Dow Jones during the market crashes. Covid-19's crash of 20.7% (up till 12 Mar) is ahead of the Dot-com Bubble's 19.3% and the GFC's 13.8%. Cheap money fuels greed and when those with high risk appetite swallow the virus, their weak financial immunity will cause their demise. I'm glad that I have quit CFD for a few years now. If not, I won't be happily 'shopping' in the markets now. LOL.
Gotto tread with caution still, both AFC and GFC brought STI down by more than 60%. Dot-com bust >40%. Could have better deals in days ahead.
When the virus thing was known and Singapore started screening visitors from Wuhan, there was time enough to reduce risks and take some money off the table.
Reducing risks when the market is down 20% is like closing the barn door after all the horses have bolted...
Only those who haven't lived through SARs got excuse.
Never noticed big daddy moved super fast to introduce fiscal measures to minimise retrenchments and business bankruptcies?
Talking about Ray Dalio, I am suspicious of his "motivation" in giving "free" advice. Is he talking his own book? Or is he really that clueless?
Early 2018, he said anyone holding cash would feel pretty stupid... Then it turned out 2018 cash was the best performing asset class - outperforming stocks, bonds, and commodities.
Early this year, he said cash is trash? We know how that turned out...
Anyway, the market is suspecting one or more Risk Parity Funds blew up when BOTH stocks AND bonds got sold off durign these 2 days...
That shouldn't happen; yet it happened...
Even other supposedly safe haven asset classes like precious metals and YEN got sold off as US stocks plummeted???
That's not the price actions of a plain vanilla, garden variety -20% bear market.
Tread with caution indeed!
Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes!
I prefer listening to Ray Dalio's philosophy to his market talk or how he manages diversification. His fund is $160 billion strong, mine is teeny weeny chinchalok shrimp size. I won't do what he does or recommends. We must know what kind of strategy fits what portfolio size and which market we are trading.
In late Nov 2019, his fund had placed a $1.5 billion bet in put options till Mar 2020. While that was a hedging move, I read that the bullishness was tapering. While STI was not over the top bullish then, I felt the risk-reward wasn't stacked in our favour. Better be wrong making less than be wrong being slaughtered!
So decided that my best hedge was to bail. Wouldn't want to be the last piece of meat in the market to be grilled. Thats' the survival instinct from being beaten one time too many since CLOB shares time.
Hey, the wrinkles around my eyes do count for something afterall! LOL.
Ray Dalio's Alpha Fund just lost -20% and we are waiting to see whether his "all weather" Risk Parity Fund was the one that got hurt when both stocks and bonds sold off...
Gold, bonds, stocks all went down together. So much for "all weather" and "permanent portfolio" strategies...
I suspect the next shoe to drop maybe passive indexing?
I'm biased of course.
I am more impressed with traders like Stanley Drunkenmiller and Jim Rogers ;)
One does not know when is the time that the figure is at the bottom. The best approach for one is to invest on the continuous basis for the generated dividends.
Markets too volatile for me. I just stood on the sidelines and watch.
US markets were up +9% on Friday. Went limit down -5% for the US futures after the Fed's panic interest rate cut this morning.
How to trade in such a market with swings like that?
I'm not that good.
Like in poker or "chor dai di"; I pass ;)
I prefer to fish in calmer waters.
LOL!
P.S. I've already commented to Endrene that the price action does not feel like its the normal -20% bear market.
We both don't have to worry about retrenchments like others, but correspondingly, we don't have the "luxury" of a day job to bail us out if we blew up our portfolios.
Don't let our past mistakes in previous bull/bear markets go to waste ;)
The difference between investors and savers today is that savers' returns beat 99% of investors without taking any risk and putting in any effort to study companies and financial markets.
When investors make lots of money, don't hao-lian to savers who don't. One day, savers will hao-lian back. Haha.
Savings is applicable to everyone. Can't say the same for investing. Not everyone can make money from investing but I'm sure they can use their other God-given talents to make good money too.
三百六十行，行行出状元. It all goes back to knowing oneself, then choosing the best route to make money to reach financial freedom.
Yup, our 5,000 years of Chinese wisdom said it best - 行行出状元.
Once we have found the poison we can thrive in, money will come.
But then, as Chinese, our gambling DNA is strong in us - hence we see lots of "gambling" behaviours masquerading as "investing".
Even billionaires can't resist "gambling". The allure of something for nothing is too strong to resist...
During the last bear market of 2008, we see in the papers one billionaire suing his investment bank for forex and bond losses that total up to 1 billion!? 1 billion!!!
Then there are CEO millionaires suing their banks for losses in the millions. (Shouldn't they be focusing on the business?)
These high networth "investors" got margin call can sue their banks.
成也萧何,败也萧何. The very "gambling" instinct that drove many of these high-fliers to become successful entrepreneurs/CEOs also caused them huge losses in financial markets and casinos. Luckily, entrepreneurship is available as an outlet for these people to channel their wild "gambling" instincts. I must have benefited a lot as a customer to the businesses started by these "gamblers".
No shame in failing as a businessman. Can't say the same for gamblers.
Those who top up their CPF smiling now. Heng ah! Capital protected.
ReplyDeleteCW,
DeleteThat's the upside.
The downside is saving requires no skill or competence whatsover.
So a bei kambing who tops up CPF in 30 years time is still a bei kambing - 1st year saving experence times 30 :(
What's the biggest worry for savers?
Inflation. (What's the point of saving if money gets smaller and smaller?)
How then to protect againt erosion of purchasing power?
Investing.
That's the catch 22 conundrum...
Hi SMOL,
ReplyDeleteThe diff between savings and investing is: investing is more exciting! Work 1 yr to save, just to lose it in a few hours when invested LOL
LP,
DeleteAlso its a lot cooler at parties when it comes to flexing and impressing the panties off babes ;)
That's provided we make money though :(
If not, we become born-again buy-and-hold acolytes; just don't tell others we're investing to breakeven one day...
Shhh....
Hi SMOL,
ReplyDeleteQuite entertaining to see the different responses.
Some say 100% vested and no cash liao
Others said they have bought the dip at least 5 times already
Still others look at other prospective candidates for "sound money" that end up getting beaten down
Entertaining. Really entertaining.
Meanwhile, I haven't even do anything yet! lol!
Unintelligent Nerd,
DeleteDon't lose sight why you are visiting those places in the first place.
If its for entertainment, fair enough.
You schadenfreude you.
But if you are there to sharpen your saw, how does it help?
;)
Is investing really a cool topic? Hahaha actually except the blogger circle of friends who are I also investors. I seldom want to tell people about investment. Even if someone starts it, I will just act innocent and listen.
ReplyDeleteThe only time I chip in is when my neighbourhood uncle at whampoa talking to other shop owners about investing 10 k to get 15 k
Asking each other how much is put into this business. Leg meuuser and hair salon aunties.
I say uncle, I kaypo, u mind telling more. After a while, I told him he kena ponsai scheme, better quickly run if possible.
Sadly, after my dad passed away, I seldom go back. When I go back that day, that shop folds. Not sure if related
Sillyinvestor,
DeleteYou have already answered yourself.
No one wants to put in the effort or interested in the investing PROCESS.
But everyone is interested in the REWARDS!
Like 10K to 15K for the uncle with minimum effort or brains ideally ;)
In our community, the 15K equivalent for that uncle is the 10 baggers or 6 digits passive income annually ;)
Next time try talking about 10 baggers or 6 digits passive income instead!
LOL!
Some of my alert sound. I use some my saving to invest. Reset that alert!
ReplyDeleteI ignore financial news, they only cause more fear and chaos. Next alert come again, I repeat.
Have a plan stick to it. See.. no need to use brain.
I do the same even when I am 80.
The fun and excitement exceeded the fear.
The excitement of see my asset double wahahaha!!
WolfT,
DeleteOK...
Don't forget to take your medication ;)
Jokes aside. I am guessing you don't have alerts to remind you when to SELL, do you?
;)
I realised that I forgot to set some alerts on when to SELL. Dammit.
DeleteBuy-back-then-hold beats buy-and-hold when the market is in blood bath.
Rainbow girl,
DeleteYou'll make a good trader yet!
One poke you instantly understood ;)
Hi SMOL,
ReplyDeleteSavings, no buy and sell.
Investing, some got buy no sell and they are merely operating in the same paradigm as those in the savings camp. 30 years X Year 1 experience. No need skills one, just need to click 'Submit order' and 'Confirm Order' button then market will do its magic! LOL.
Heng I off-loaded most counters from Dec to 29 Jan and have been scooping up some bargains. It's like a sale, after buying, they reduce price some more! But I'm chill with my sea of red. Imagine seeing Dairy Farm go down from my '5yr low' entry price of USD5.65 to USD3.67 yesterday. Ouch!
Anyway, it's hard to predict the bottom lah, but if we remember what Ray Dalio says, many happenings are not isolated events. There are patterns. We just have to observe them and find a structure in the chaos. And each time we crash, we scale higher the next. Pain + Reflection = Progress.
I saw a chart on CNBC which shows the 16-day change in Dow Jones during the market crashes. Covid-19's crash of 20.7% (up till 12 Mar) is ahead of the Dot-com Bubble's 19.3% and the GFC's 13.8%. Cheap money fuels greed and when those with high risk appetite swallow the virus, their weak financial immunity will cause their demise. I'm glad that I have quit CFD for a few years now. If not, I won't be happily 'shopping' in the markets now. LOL.
Gotto tread with caution still, both AFC and GFC brought STI down by more than 60%. Dot-com bust >40%. Could have better deals in days ahead.
Endrene,
DeleteI like your style ;)
When the virus thing was known and Singapore started screening visitors from Wuhan, there was time enough to reduce risks and take some money off the table.
Reducing risks when the market is down 20% is like closing the barn door after all the horses have bolted...
Only those who haven't lived through SARs got excuse.
Never noticed big daddy moved super fast to introduce fiscal measures to minimise retrenchments and business bankruptcies?
Talking about Ray Dalio, I am suspicious of his "motivation" in giving "free" advice. Is he talking his own book? Or is he really that clueless?
Early 2018, he said anyone holding cash would feel pretty stupid...
Then it turned out 2018 cash was the best performing asset class - outperforming stocks, bonds, and commodities.
Early this year, he said cash is trash? We know how that turned out...
Anyway, the market is suspecting one or more Risk Parity Funds blew up when BOTH stocks AND bonds got sold off durign these 2 days...
That shouldn't happen; yet it happened...
Even other supposedly safe haven asset classes like precious metals and YEN got sold off as US stocks plummeted???
That's not the price actions of a plain vanilla, garden variety -20% bear market.
Tread with caution indeed!
Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes!
Hi SMOL,
DeleteI prefer listening to Ray Dalio's philosophy to his market talk or how he manages diversification. His fund is $160 billion strong, mine is teeny weeny chinchalok shrimp size. I won't do what he does or recommends. We must know what kind of strategy fits what portfolio size and which market we are trading.
In late Nov 2019, his fund had placed a $1.5 billion bet in put options till Mar 2020. While that was a hedging move, I read that the bullishness was tapering. While STI was not over the top bullish then, I felt the risk-reward wasn't stacked in our favour. Better be wrong making less than be wrong being slaughtered!
So decided that my best hedge was to bail. Wouldn't want to be the last piece of meat in the market to be grilled. Thats' the survival instinct from being beaten one time too many since CLOB shares time.
Hey, the wrinkles around my eyes do count for something afterall! LOL.
Endrene,
DeleteGlad you took risks off the table late 2019 ;)
Ray Dalio's Alpha Fund just lost -20% and we are waiting to see whether his "all weather" Risk Parity Fund was the one that got hurt when both stocks and bonds sold off...
Gold, bonds, stocks all went down together. So much for "all weather" and "permanent portfolio" strategies...
I suspect the next shoe to drop maybe passive indexing?
I'm biased of course.
I am more impressed with traders like Stanley Drunkenmiller and Jim Rogers ;)
All strategies work until they don't.
You are right.
Survive first.
Then we can talk about making money ;)
Hi Smol,
ReplyDeleteSaving comes before investing.
WTK
WTK,
DeleteYes. That's another reason why Singapore is different from other countries ;)
Our budget deficits are funded by surpluses (earn more; save more) from previous years.
And when we have dry powder reserves, big daddy is already planning ahead how to take advantage of the recovery (when it comes).
Using savings to buy near the bottom is not the same as using savings to buy near the top.
This is why saving is not investing; and investing is not saving.
One is anyone and everyone can do it; the other is the majority has to lose so the minority can benefit.
;)
Smol,
ReplyDeleteOne does not know when is the time that the figure is at the bottom. The best approach for one is to invest on the continuous basis for the generated dividends.
My two cents of views.
WTK
WTK,
DeleteThe "best approach" is using the vehicle and poison that suits one's best ;)
I guess you have chosen your strategy based on your track record and past experiences in the market.
Just asl long the idea is not planted into you by others, you are good to go!
If not, its just faith based investing.
Hi SMOL,
ReplyDeleteBeen awhile. Hope all is great? Stay safe and protected.
Many differences. Main diff for me is knowledge of the savers and investors. Investors has more knowledge of the market than savers.
But while knowledge is power, sometimes not comprehensive knowledge or fake news knowledge is even worst than no knowledge.
Rolf,
DeleteI'm good. Thanks!
Great to have you back!
Agree.
A little knowledge can be more damaging than no knowledge at all...
Whenever I see highly educated retirees having a sea of red in their portfolios now, its a tell they were "savers" most of their careers.
Nearing their retirements, flushed with funds, they suddenly got the investment "fever".
Either to make up for lost time or fearing this is their last chance to beat their more sucessful peers (hole-in-the-heart thingy)?
On the opposite end, I scratch my head when I see youths not taking risks by jumping onto the CPF contribution bandwagon???
When we are young and can recover fast, shouldn't we take the opportunity to discover ourselves? What we are made of?
Isn't it better to know in our 30s or 40s we suck at investing/trading and all things financial?
Than to discover it in our 60s and hoping we will breakeven one day?
No shame in chosing the savings path (no competence needed; we just need discipline) if the shoes fit us better.
Different stroks for different folks ;)
temperament,
ReplyDeleteThat's why I'm very humbled and appreciative of all the different animals here at this watering hole ;)
I enjoy the diversity of styles and techniques each and everyone employs.
Its like 8 immortals crossing the easter sea.
How boring if everyone just monkey see, monkey do!?
My "pokes" are just "throwing bricks to attract jade" ;)
If not how to steal with pride?
LOL!
temperament,
ReplyDeleteWhat a day!
I am flat today. Did not enter any trades.
No harm; no foul :)
Markets too volatile for me. I just stood on the sidelines and watch.
US markets were up +9% on Friday. Went limit down -5% for the US futures after the Fed's panic interest rate cut this morning.
How to trade in such a market with swings like that?
I'm not that good.
Like in poker or "chor dai di"; I pass ;)
I prefer to fish in calmer waters.
LOL!
P.S. I've already commented to Endrene that the price action does not feel like its the normal -20% bear market.
We both don't have to worry about retrenchments like others, but correspondingly, we don't have the "luxury" of a day job to bail us out if we blew up our portfolios.
Don't let our past mistakes in previous bull/bear markets go to waste ;)
The difference between investors and savers today is that savers' returns beat 99% of investors without taking any risk and putting in any effort to study companies and financial markets.
ReplyDeleteWhen investors make lots of money, don't hao-lian to savers who don't. One day, savers will hao-lian back. Haha.
hyom,
DeleteBut, but those so called "financially literate" bloggers and self-styled "gurus" want to help anyone and everyone achieve FIRE?
Always proselytising to their "non-financially literate" friends must invest or else!
And some wonder why we are not mainstream?
I wouldn't go so extreme as 99%, but suffice to say the majority of folks on the FIRE path have discovered:
The more they invest; the more they lose.
If only it were so easy...
Time for Big Scribe to restart CPF 1M talk. Why you don't need to invest to retire. LOL!
DeleteCW,
DeleteI thought Big Scribe dead oredi? Everyone gone to their own "vested interests"....
Its just a stepping stone for the "hobbyist" bloggers to turn "professional" ;)
Anyway, there's no money in "teaching" people how to save...
Would you pay $1,000 to attend such a workshop?
I don't think anyone would even want to pay $10!
But tell people we can help them achieve FIRE before 35, or earn $1 million passive, passive, charge $3,000 people will gladly pay!
The more expensive, the better the trainer must be!
Hi SMOL,
DeleteSavings is applicable to everyone. Can't say the same for investing. Not everyone can make money from investing but I'm sure they can use their other God-given talents to make good money too.
三百六十行，行行出状元. It all goes back to knowing oneself, then choosing the best route to make money to reach financial freedom.
hyom,
DeleteYup, our 5,000 years of Chinese wisdom said it best - 行行出状元.
Once we have found the poison we can thrive in, money will come.
But then, as Chinese, our gambling DNA is strong in us - hence we see lots of "gambling" behaviours masquerading as "investing".
Even billionaires can't resist "gambling". The allure of something for nothing is too strong to resist...
During the last bear market of 2008, we see in the papers one billionaire suing his investment bank for forex and bond losses that total up to 1 billion!? 1 billion!!!
Then there are CEO millionaires suing their banks for losses in the millions. (Shouldn't they be focusing on the business?)
These high networth "investors" got margin call can sue their banks.
We ordinary mortals just suck thumb.
Hi SMOL,
Delete成也萧何,败也萧何. The very "gambling" instinct that drove many of these high-fliers to become successful entrepreneurs/CEOs also caused them huge losses in financial markets and casinos. Luckily, entrepreneurship is available as an outlet for these people to channel their wild "gambling" instincts. I must have benefited a lot as a customer to the businesses started by these "gamblers".
No shame in failing as a businessman. Can't say the same for gamblers.
hyom,
DeleteI'm glad I know myself.
Entrepreneurship is out for me.
I prefer solitary pursuits.
If I"ve not found trading, I would enjoy being a taxi-driver, writer, sculptor, or photographer; etc ;)