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Saturday, 29 July 2017

Bitcoins and Tulip Bulbs

Spot the similarities?


  1. Too young to know Tulip Bulbs?

    Too old to know Bitcoins?

    1. CW,

      I missed the Tulip Mania.

      Now we have Bitcoins for me to study in real time on the behaviour of market participants/speculators ;)

      Even smart people like Isaac Newton got burnt during the Tulip Mania...

      I could be wrong. I rather stick with assets that have a track record dating back 5,000 years ;)

    2. isaac newton was in the south sea bubble, not tulip mania!

    3. you can't compare bitcoin with tulip mania, the later destroy a country economy, bitcoin only destroy a few speculators wallet.

    4. coconut,

      Opps! I got it wrong!

      You are right. Newton lost money in the South Sea Bubble - not the Tulip Mania.

      Thanks for correcting me ;)

      Of course its not the same yet.

      I am fascinated and studying how something that is circulated and promoted in a small community gets "sold" to mainstream by the media and "influencers".

      How people start with disinterest to finally capitulating and jumping in to the feeding frenzy too.

      I noticed it happened quite frequently to property bubbles all over the world.

      Those who were conservative stayed away until they can't stand their colleagues and neighbours making so much more money than them.

      Especially when media never rest in sharing "overnight" success stories...

      And ever so helpful snake-oils having weekly semniars and workshops to help everyone get rich! I can do it, so can you!

      Finally can't stand it no longer, sheep "monkey see; monkey do" only to buy at the peak and have to wait 10-15 years to "break-even" :(

    5. do you know we all in a gigantic bubble? that bubble is call the universe, and its already run(expand) out of control!

    6. just like the universe, financial bubble are nature made, not man made, like it or not when it form, we all get suck into it.

    7. coconut,

      Either the universe keeps expanding and it becomes too cold to support life, or we get crushed when the universe reverse course and collapses on itself.

      I'm not sure about the "out of control" part; all things have a beginning and an end.

      It's all good.

      I not worried. I believe I'll go sell salted eggs BEFORE that happens ;)

  2. Hi SMOL,

    I missed out on it. :(

    I still have a blog post on cryptocurrency like almost a year back?

    Nvm, let's enjoy the companionship of our pet rocks!

    1. Unintelligent Nerd,

      Paying for something hoping that someone will buy it from us at a higher price?

      That I already do with my trading account and investment portfolio.

      It's like penny stocks.

      Of course can make money. But also can lose quite a lot like those who speculated with Blumont, Liongold, and Asiasons have found out.

      I'm an IT dinosaur :(

    2. Hi SMOL,

      Nope. More like being interested in the possibilities of the underlying technology.

      For now, I'll just wait it out. Need the speculators to exit first.

      Btw, I found something quite cool. One of the more interesting (to me, at least) applications of the underlying blockchain technology is to democratize academic research. Why should the Academic Journals huat big when it's the researcher's effort? Shouldn't royalties (purchase of academic research papers) go to the individual researcher instead? ;)

      To provide a counter-point, one of my coursemates is in the payment solutions business. He mentioned that businesses do not like the distributed ledger-way of doing things. Why let your competitors know who are your suppliers, vendors, and clients on the blockchain?!?!? Bo privacy leh!

    3. Unintelligent Nerd,

      I see.

      I'll stay on the sidelines to study the behaviour of the market participants.

      May come in useful for the vehicles I'm vested in.

      Knowing when the sell around peak euphoria is something many investors would love to do on hindsight ;)

  3. At least can eat tulips if really hungry...

    Harlow SMOL!!! Didn't know you have a blog!!

    Ya me dinosorr lah...

    There goes my weekend ... Hohoho!!!

    1. Spur,

      Welcome to my watering-hole!

      Finally you found your way here ;)

      Was scratching my head why you didn't visit earlier?

      I'm one of the few bilingual, dialect spewing, singlish talking, irreverent, and "talk male chicken" blogger here ;)

      My posts are "throw brick to attract jade".

      Most people come for the comments sections.

      You'll find some very interesting characters here!

      Have fun!

  4. Bitcoin worth $9M buried in garbage dump - CNN Money

    How about if you are the garang guni man?

    Will he knows anything?

    Even i can change and hard disk, i won't know.

    Actually i think my money paid upfront to my Barber Shop is some sort of "BIT Coin".

    It's called "ECOIN".

    i think i can login to my account and use it to purchase some other things besides paying for my haircut.

    But no trading activity, i think.

    1. temperament,

      The money we pay upfront to our Transit Link card is like you Barber Shop.

      To transact in Bitcoins, we need electricity/battery , access to internet, and a smartphone or PC.

      That's why Millenials are open and quick to adopt it. They grew up with the internet!

      Once upon a time US banned and confiscated gold from its citizens. I'm not so sure US will allow anyone to challenge its world currency status without a fight ;)

      Watching in real time to see how this interesting fringe movement will evolve.

      If Bitcoins become mainstream against the odds, how will banks make money if they can't "invent" money through creation of credit?

  5. Smol,

    The conversation u had with coconut, about finally entering the market at its peak, even though one might have think it's a bad idea earlier on.

    So true.

    I see it first hand too, when my MiL SIL start asking what stocks to buy... I... ...

    I say "siao ah" u hold stocks, and dun want to sell, ok. Now still buy?

    But like you say. People also buay tahan the easy money made by others. No need funny funny asset class, think best world. And hey, it's not a fraud or penny frying like the 3 romance

    So... Mr market is constantly making us learn. We thought we learnt, or I thought I learn until I got confuse and slapped again

    1. Sillyinvestor,

      If cannot sell, at the very least don't add more - now that's something wise to ponder on ;)

      I am just "lucky" to have experienced 2 major >50% drawdowns as in 2000 and 2008.

      The drawback is by "hedging" so I don't get hurt if another >50% massacre comes, I am NOT MAXIMISING my returns by being 100% vested :(

      Its OK. At my age, I have no intention to wait 10-15 years just to "break-even".

      On the other hand, it's a sign of "virility" to be able to sustain my lifesyle without being 100% vested ;)

    2. Since you talk about maximising listen to what this great man said:-

      Actually i have posted this in VBs - just in case...

      Q: How can investors avoid being shocked, or at least reduce the risk of overreacting to a surprise?

      A: Understanding that we do not know the future is such a simple statement, but it's so important. Investors do better where risk management is a conscious part of the process. Maximizing return is a strategy that makes sense only in very specific circumstances. In general, survival is the only road to riches. Let me say that again: Survival is the only road to riches. You should try to maximize return only if losses would not threaten your survival and if you have a compelling future need for the extra gains you might earn.
      The riskiest moment is when you're right. That's when you're in the most trouble, because you tend to overstay the good decisions. So, in many ways, it's better not to be so right. That's what diversification is for. It's an explicit recognition of ignorance. And I view diversification not only as a survival strategy but as an aggressive strategy, because the next windfall might come from a surprising place. I want to make sure I'm exposed to it. Somebody once said that if you're comfortable with everything you own, you're not diversified. I think you should have a small allocation to gold, to foreign currency, to TIPS [Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities].
      Can you manage yourself in a bubble, and can you manage yourself on the other side? It's very easy to say yes when you haven't been there. But it's very hot in that oven. And can you save your ego, as well as your wealth? I think I might have just said something important. Your wealth is like your children -- the primary link between your present and the future. You should try to think about it in the same way. You want your children to have freedom but you also want them to be good people who can take care of themselves. You don't want to blow it, because you don't get a second chance. When you invest, it's not your wealth today, but it's your future that you're really managing.


      Who said above?

      Definitely won't be WB.

      Yet he had done quite well too.

      Means what?

      Ya loh.

      i always not happy with the way i buy or sell.

      Too fast one like birds mating (in the sky?)

      When will i be happy?

      i am happy as long as i don't lose money.

      1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
      2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
      3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

      Truism of Investments.
      A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
      B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

      My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.

    3. temperament,

      You never fail to amaze me by being so well read!

      Do you read EVERY business websites!?

      I much prefer this quote from the same person you quoted:

      "By the way, when I managed money we had clients who saved, and clients who used capital. And I always seemed to find that the ones who spent it were nicer and more enjoyable than the ones who squirreled it away."


    4. LOL!

      "KIAM KANA, ME"?

      Not really lah.

      i only believe there is a "Time for Everything".

    5. temperament,

      Not saying you lah ;)

      Just find it amusing that the person you quoted felt the same way as me.

      I guess its the same whether one is a salesman or business owner facing clients.

      Who wants to work with "giam kana" customers if we had a choice?

      No tips never mind. Still want to ask for more discounts, free gifts, free delivery, free advice, free hug, free kiss, and free drinks!


      By the way, the person you quoted quite "cold door". If not for the power of Google, I would never have known ;)


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