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Sunday, 24 September 2017

Best (and useless) Investment Advice to Bei Kambings



Only buy a stock when the price goes up.

If the price no go up, don't buy.







42 comments:

  1. Depends. You can buy a stock that never moves,but sit back and collect dividends.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mr Lim,

      I see you are my senior. Welcome to this watering hole!


      You've said it. (Or what you alluded to)

      The trick for dividends investing is to buy a stock that does not go DOWN in price. No one invests so we can breakeven one day... Right?


      That's why I'm in the Growth and Income school of John Neff. (Who in Singapore blogs about John Neff?)


      Any company, country, or person, if we are not growing, that means we are shrivelling...

      That's why big daddy is crazy on GDP growth. No growth? Who pays for free goodies big daddy dishes out? Wage growth? Jobs for new job seekers leaving school? Tenents to fillup retail, office and industrial buildings that fillup the wallets of REITs?

      I just find it weird for anyone depending on dividend income to bet on a company that is flatlined. If revenues and profits don't grow, how will dividends grow?

      If dividends don't grow, how will it beat inflation going forward?


      I'll side with youth on this count. Too many old fogeys are married to yesterday's "blue-black chips" like SPH, Singpost, ComfortDelgro...

      What are the odds of management who have "coasted along" in a near monopolistic company for donkey years doing a better job than youths (new upstarts) who have no legacy baggages in turning an industry upside down?


      I depend on dividends to fund my lifestyle too. So no.

      The advice to only buy stocks that go up in price may be quite "useless" to bei kambings, its something I DEPEND ON as a full time investor ;)

      Unless I am shorting of course!

      LOL!



      P.S. Always bet on youth!

      But then, wars are fought by young men; the spoils of war divided by old men...

      That's why old men fund the adventures of youth ;)

      Youth depend on Other People's Money; seniors leverage on Other People's Talent.


      Delete
    2. What are the odds of management who have "coasted along" in a near monopolistic company for donkey years doing a better job than youths (new upstarts) who have no legacy baggages in turning an industry upside down?

      This sentence shows your wisdom! Anyway, I feel with Grab having billions of funding, the war is on.

      Delete
    3. Hey! Welcome back wine connoisseur!

      No, no. I am not wise. Wise people ugly like shit.

      I am the air-head man-whore; and ahem, handsome :)


      This Malaysian startup quite cool. The founder got his focus right. We go to Harvard Business School to learn to start a business; not work for others ;)


      Delete
  2. Buy Panadols to ease heartache. Okay! Buy those EXTRA Strong Panadols to have effect that last longer!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. Go ahead. No one stopping you. Enjoy your medication ;)


      We invest/trade for the sugar.

      Panadols are for the "bo-pian" situations.


      I listen to what you DO; not what you SAY.

      Clap, clap. I see you no longer vested in ComfortDelgro ;)

      See?

      Sold at a profit no need for panadols liao :)

      You sly old fox you!


      I'm with Kevin on ComfortDelgro. I rather bet on the challenger that's giving the incumbant lots of headaches!

      LOL!

      Let's hope Grab will list in SGX and not elsewhere. Poor SGX is finding it tough to get good IPOs nowadays... Let's not go back to the old "S-chips" days where we welcomed anyone and everyone...

      Delete
    2. 两虎(还是三虎?)相争,必有一伤.
      I would rather steer clear of either, but meanwhile, the consumer wins! :)

      Delete
    3. Kevin,

      A company that can screw its customers in pricing, show them the middle finger, and scold them cannot wait don't wait - now that's a company I want as shameless coattail riding shareholder!

      Remember when Apple came out with that iPhone (forgot which generation) that have faulty reception issues? Steve Jobs scolded them for whining, and got the bxlls to charge their customers for the plastic ring solution!?

      Now that's what I call a great company that have its customers by the .... LOL!


      I am a loyal M1 customer both for mobile and broadband. Prices have been coming down all these years.

      But would I own M1 shares?

      Ha!

      Delete
  3. Hi SMOL,

    I prefer the underdog. The thrills of every surprise results
    are my cup of teas.

    Ben

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ben,

      End of this year, I'll reach the big 50.

      While I get closer to the realm of old fogeys - living in past glories - I do my best to stay true to my 初心.

      Its about not forgetting that "hunger" of being an underdog (no papers; no connections).

      The challenge is to channel the "hunger" now to perfecting my craft; not the accumulation of more money - which is still accumulation by any other name ;)


      Oh! If I am youth today, like you, I would prefer to bet on the underdogs of today who can be 10 to 20 baggers in 20 to 30 years time - just like what CW has done.

      And the dividend yield on my cost of entry is like 40-50%!!!

      That's what I call monster dividend growers!

      Delete
  4. Smol,

    Er... I have a different perspective. If Grab list here, it will be good for sgx. But investors better give it a 10 foot miss.

    The game plan is over for Grab when it IPO. Just my 2 cents worth.

    Any company can make money. It's the person that invest that matters. But if we know we are not that shrew, better Siam

    Look at semb marine. Everything bad that is supposed to happen to it has happen to it. Seadrill bankrupt, consistent low price etc

    It's shares price is no where near its bottom lor.

    A shortlist party can get ahead of itself too.

    Seriously, comfort at $1-1.1 no one will buy meh?

    Btw, u sick again? Take care

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sillyinvestor,

      Thanks for your regards. I not sick.

      I went to work after writing this post in the morning at nine ;)

      I don't think I need a lot of time to come up with 2 sentences...

      LOL!


      Of course you would disagree. And you have already shared your reasons why in your ComfortDelgro post ;)

      Diversity is good! Someone needs to sell when you buy, and buy when you sell.

      If you feel Grab cash burn is not sustainable, then ComfortDelgro cash burn to match Grab and Uber will be sustainable?

      I invest in a company because I think it will grow and prosper, take market share from others, and be profitable.

      You just need that company to "survive"? Interesting perspective...

      That's turnaround plays. I no expert in this area; that I must admit.

      So let's agree to disagree :)


      But one thing I must poke you!

      You definitely not a chartist or into technical analysis...

      The old GFC low for ComfortDelgro is Oct 08 at $1.19. That's end of the financial world scenario.

      If price pierce below this level to $1 to $1.10, you be the hero to go buy the lower low lor!

      No way to fall below $1 right?

      Wait, there this Nov 03 low of $0.77...



      Delete
    2. Hi SMOL,

      Actually my post at Delgro is not a buy call. Maybe u misread it.

      But I am very much interested in the qualitative part of it. Just like I am interested why New York Times can get a surge in digital subscription that actually increase revenue but not SPH.

      Sama sama, I wonder how Grab makes money? PHV business so lucrative meh? Burn money to create demand? Create demand for what ?

      Just for IPO? Cannot be also right. I wonder what they are going to do when they reach right scale.

      I doubt they can do a alipay, logistics is crowded, advertisement rather impossible.

      If royalty for software, then also.... er....

      But whatever it is, I seriously think the blood is not out yet for Delgro. I think exedous of drivers has not started. Many are afraid of losing their licenses when regulation change

      But the longer this drags, and the more people that crosses over, regulators will find it harder and harder to slap dragonicon measures without explaining the hell why they are not doing it earlier and creating plain to heartlanders

      Delete
    3. Btw,

      Dun need charts to know something is oversold.

      Just like you dun need chart to trade. Different school of thoughts.

      Also, I am looking at ETF now. Maybe going brainless soon, after Anon point to me some US consumer staples ETF.

      Was spending time reading and reading. Maybe the reboot of the portfolio might come soon. It might not longer be just Singapore forever

      Delete
    4. I did a agar agar calculation based on 30000 PHV and 10 sudisded rides Of $4 per day.

      With the newly injected 2 billion (they say the cash burn) is the subsidy given, they can burn for 4.5 years. Lol.

      I think Comfort will cry father cry mother before that. But the qn is how Comfort will fight back

      Delete
    5. Sillyinvestor,

      LOL!

      I wrote something; you disagreed. Where did we say you had a buy call for ComforDelgro?

      You only wrote:

      1. Conclusion:

      Am I vested: No

      Am I tempted: Yes  (From your blog on ComfortDelgro)


      2. Seriously, comfort at $1-1.1 no one will buy meh?




      I always poke my readers not to take what I write too seriously ;)

      Whether your readers take what you write seriously, or take it as agar agar, thinking out loud, shoot from the hip, say say only, talk "male=-chicken" sessions - that's between you and them.

      My poke to your $1 to $1.10 rhetoric is precisely for this purpose.

      Anyone who know something can see you have plucked these figures out of thin air ;)

      You har!

      Delete
  5. SMOL,

    Why the second statement? The first statement will suffice isn't it? Not your style leh.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Blursotong King,

      Impressive. You observant ;)

      Its originally one sentence, separated by a semi-colon.

      I just thought it looks better with 2 separate short sentences.


      Why the 2nd part sentence?

      Precisely its "redundant" it adds a comedic and punchline effect to the "poke".


      You're not bei kambing so you could see through it ;)

      But to a bei kambing, it may sound like great investment advice from a guru, but once they think it through, the smarter ones will go, "Hey! Wait a minutue..."

      LOL!




      Delete
    2. SMOL

      Thanks for the compliment. I think there are different tiers of bei kambing. I am just fortunate I am not at the lowest tier.

      Buy when the price goes up, better remember to sell when the price goes higher up. If not put in some form of risk management. Sell if it falls below x% of peak. Don't want to sell because you think they are turning around soon, better make sure the stock is paying panadol, to ease the pain while waiting. Still not turning around, just make sure it is only x% of your portfolio!

      Delete
    3. Blursotong King,

      The reverse of scaling-in is scaling-out when it comes to selling ;)

      If we want to grow big as in capital accumulation, its concentration.

      When we are big, its diversification when it comes to capital preservation ;)

      It's on the house!

      And you're welcomed :)


      Delete
  6. Know when to buy is easy part .... hard part is when to sell (for most people) ... Kekeke!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Spur,

      That's how I verify whether an investor is better than me or not ;)


      Delete
  7. Hi all,

    My take is that it will be prudent to nibble a bit along the way. We will never know how low or high a share can drop or rise in future. The best possible action is buy a bit and see how it goes for the case of share decline.

    Ben

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ben,

      I am guessing you are not talking about ComfortDelgro in specific, but more describing an entry method.

      The scaling in method over the 100% all-in entry ;)

      I'm not so sure about the "best possible" action part, but all of us have to figure for ourselves what works best for us ;)


      Scaling-in is also known by many names. Peter Lynch call the small positions in his portfolio his stay-tuned positions ;)

      There are 2 main variations of scaling-in:

      Average down and average up.

      Newbies have no problem accepting the scaling-in part. Its to average up or average down, that's where most stumble!


      Come to think of it, I haven't poked you yet right?

      Don't worry. Everyone has to go through this initiation rite at this watering hole :)

      Ready? Here goes:

      I can take what you wrote and replace it with my 2 sentence post, and it will have the same rhetoric and parody effect!


      How's that for a compliment?

      Don't hit the face!


      Delete
    2. SMOL,

      You are so handsome! How can I bear to hit your face?

      Ben

      Delete
  8. I called in Average In. Last Friday; someone told me she saw so many people posting averaging down ComfortDelgro at one Forum. We can't be sure based on those posting. Someone with large porttfolio can keep buying down and yet it less than 10% exposure to that stock. Seeing is sometime NOT believing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CW,

      Ah! You call it Average in ;)


      That's why I play the "moderator" role over here at this watering hole.

      Any comment that is fluffy or fishy, I go poking like the aunties in the supermaket - check "got shadow" or not (有影吗)?

      LOL!


      Most people at forums don't verify what others say.

      They look for others that agree with their thesis.

      Feels safer in a herd. Stick with their own kind only.

      Band leader says price at $2.30 a buy! Everyone goes yalor, yalor!

      Price drops below $2... Everyone stares at their navels...

      Band leader starts cheerleading!

      Price lower I buy more!

      Everyone goes yalor, yalor again!

      Faith restored!

      Problem solved.

      Until someone asks, "Is investing/trading faith based?"

      Eh...

      Don't laugh!

      Got people invest based on astrology and feng shui one hor!





      Delete
  9. Haha! Thanks to you for the entertainment again here at your watering hole. You merely posted one blog post title and two sentences. Yet, people see in them what they want to see.

    Heng ah. I can only write observations. Not guru, not good enough to analyse. Learn from you - let others fill in the blanks :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kevin,

      You got it right! Its just about having fun ;)


      I must credit and say thanks to LP for he was the one who taught me that to play music, we need BOTH space and notes together ;)



      Delete
  10. PYRAMID DOWN a counter is quite common i suppose.

    But why financial authors never approve?

    The danger of catching the falling knife (of no return) is always possible.

    Show me one author who approve PD and i would like to read that book.

    Have U tried PYRAMID all the way UP?

    i haven't.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. temperament,

      Paul Tudor Jones said it best:

      Losers average losers.


      All I can say my recovery started when I decided to do the OPPOSITE of what bei kambings do. I got tired of losng money...


      Of course you have not tried pyramid up. We had this conversation many times now...

      You have to figure out what's stopping you despite knowing what you know.


      All I can say my trading 10 baggers within these 4 years is the result of:

      Letting my winnings run and cutting my losers short.


      Its all basic Trend Following Money Management ;)



      Delete
    2. i can understand about short to very short term trading.

      Without a stop loss U will kill your capital very fast.

      In fact to me in trading is how skillful U use all types of "Stop Loss" will make U money.

      Not anything else i think because U have to do as many trades as possible when U think the risk to reward is worth it.

      But i am not sure U can do it with "long to longer term" trading?

      Delete
    3. temperament,

      Well, you have been through several big events like 97, 00, 08.

      Let your track record do the talking.

      Do what's best for your self interests!

      You not me; I not you.


      My own track record tells me Buy and Hold and Average Down are bad for my financial health ;)


      Youths have the excuse since they have no track records, they have to rely on "faith" at the beginning; we don't have this luxury anymore...



      Delete
    4. i am at my tail end of investing.

      i just wonder how can i follow financial authors' recommendation of not to PYRAMID DOWN BUT UP instead.

      The most difficult part is when to START the "Reverse PYRAMID" - (base of 5,4,3,2,1).

      When U sell in a Bull's Market, U would like to PYRAMID (1,2,3,4,5,...).

      All in theory only.

      In practice which is easier?

      AVG DN or UP?

      i supposed it depends on one's psyche.

      Delete
    5. temperament,

      You know which is easier.

      We wouldn't be having this conversation otherwise ;)


      Since you didn't put into practice what you knew in 2009, then I guess you have to wait for the next one then.


      If it depends on one's psyche, you can stop asking the question.


      You have done well despite using the tools of bei kambings; does it bother you so much whether the cat is black or white?


      I understand. I too wanted to study for a degree just to fill the hole in my heart when I returned. Lucky the dimple girl knock some sense back into my empty head!

      A graduate man-whore is still man-whore...

      LOL!


      Delete
    6. U always must try to be better ma especially so many professionals say there is a better way to do it.

      i forgot who(a professional - no Bei Kambing) had been quite successful in betting in distressed markets for years AVG DOWN until 2008/2009 or which particular Bear market period he mis-read or mis-interpreted the companies.

      All his winnings and then some were taken back by the market loh.

      Another words average down is quite dangerous in a Bear market if you choose the wrong company or so called "Blue Chip".

      Who can be so sure about "BLUE CHIPS" in a Bear market?

      Even now do you consider SPH, CMG, M1, KeppelCorp, Sembcorp, etc.. still blue chip status going forward?

      Delete
    7. temperament,

      Listen to yourself.

      Everything you have written so far is mostly against Averaging Down. You trying to convince yourself or me?

      Make a decision and move on.


      Notice the difference when I said Buy and Hold and Average Down were bad for my financial health?

      I never said they were no good for others. Others want to us them, and if they work for them, great!

      I don't care about what works for others; I only care about what works for me.


      As for "blue chip" status, I never bothered with nouns.

      I prefer to focus on the adjectives.

      Is the company making money?

      Will it grow bigger in the future?


      Delete
  11. In short, the bulls or bears can make money.

    The 3 little pigs went to market and never come out thereafter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. temperament,

      If we are "right", Average Up or Down no difference.

      But if we were "wrong", Average Up less damaging than Average Down ;)



      Delete
  12. And of course before we listen to ourselves,it's wise to listen as much as possible to others.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. temperament,

      That's provided we don't become like the fable of The Father and Son with their Donkey ;)

      Listen to counsel; make our own decisions.


      Delete

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