Gasp! I've gone half-naked!

Yesterday, I went down to the AIA tower at Robinson Road to cancel my Life insurance policies.:

Term, critical illnesses, disability, and personal accident.


The only one that I've keep is the remaining whole-life policy that may "break-even" in 2 years' time at the 20 year anniversary mark. 

But looking at the surrender cash value today, its far behind the projected cash value when I first signed up for it age 27. May have to wait for a few years more to break-even due to the current low interest environment...


This is not a rash decision.


Insurance is great to create an immediate networth when I was age 27. 

It's a bit like playing options: we speculate on a high probability that we will "lose" small money (make no insurance claims), to benefit from a low probability that we will "win" big money (Choy! And double choy!)

OK, whole-life insurance is another animal. It's more a play on your inflation expectations (why would you buy insurance if you no faith on your government with the printing press?) and more a savings plan for conservative (or clueless) savers.

For example, savvy Indonesian insurance buyers who bought whole-life policies in Sing dollars rather than in Indonesian rupiah 20 years ago would have "won". Those who chose US dollars would have "lost"... (and praying hard US don't devalue their currency even more!)

Now why no one told me at age 27 that I need to have some ideas on inflation expectations, yield comparisons from alternative investments, and some forward currency views!? 


The good news is that after 18 years of hard work and pure dumb luck, my net-worth today is now more than the "created" instant net-worth from my insurance policies. So the policies have served their purpose and are now "obsolete".

I have no desire to "profit" from my lost. 

But more importantly, I am at peace with myself.

I know my own medical and family's history. And in the event that I'm diagnose with a serious medical condition, I know what I would do.

If it's terminal, I'll focus on palliative care than expensive "Hail Mary" medical procedures. It's interesting what doctors and nurses would choose themselves knowing what they know.

If it's wear and tear replacements, with medishield and medisave, I should be able to afford them. Class B2 is OK with me. That the benefit of being a care-giver now. I've base my observations and decisions on personal experience rather than hearsay.

I am pleasantly surprised that mom's medical costs were quite affordable after the medishield and medisave deductions - and she is a full-time housewife all her life. (OK, for families that earn less than $2,000 per month can be a different story... Hence I count my blessings daily.)

I exercise (I'm a walker - no, not that kind of street walker! I walk 1.5 hours average per day), and go for my annual medical health screenings (early detection increases my odds of recovery). 

My vice is I eat "unhealthy". Baby steps.


I've never understood why millionaires have life insurance policies. Once upon a time when there was estate duty I understand.

But putting my salesman hat on, the answer is crystal clear.

Cheers to all the million-dollar-round table members!

4 biggest bubbles in the last 40 years

Bottom-up investors can skip this post. You wouldn't be interested.

This post is more for macro top-down (that's how I check girls out too!) speculators like me.

The below chart is interesting!

  

Iron ore? It's one of the key ingredient for steel making in case you never studied Chemistry or Physical Science.

But unlike copper or crude oil (other more commonly used economic activity indicators), there's no paper futures market for speculators (leveraged hedge funds, investment bank's trading desks, etc) to "manipulate" the prices.

You take away from this chart whatever you like. Being prepared and having a plan may help during these whipsaw markets...

I don't know about you, but I am one confused speculator!

Good news is good news. Bad news is also good news!? Huh? (QE expectations?)

That's why I love this chart that I've found!!!

Now my mind is clear despite all the "manipulations" by Central Banks.

I am at peace.



 

Singlish and Technical Analysis

Let's have a bit of fun!

Remember when you first started to learn Technical analysis?

It looks so simple right?

This line cross that line; a bounce off (imaginary) support; a breakout through resistance (yes, it's imaginary again); and we are off to the races!

But once we commit real money, eh!? Why are we still losing money?


The answer lies in Singlish!

It's a bit like explaining to our Ang-Moh friends the nuances and different shades of meaning when we speak like we do in Singapore:

Singlish                                What we meant

Can lah                                    Yes.

Can leh                                      Yes. Of course.

Can lor                                         Yes. I think so.

Can hah?                                       Are you sure?

Can meh?                                        Are you certain?

Can can                                             Confirm.

Can gua                                               Maybe.

Can liao                                                  Already can.

Can wor                                                    Yea.

Can liao la                                                  OK, enough.

Can or not?                                                    Tell me the answer quick!
Can your head!                                                 Not possible you idiot!
Sure can                                                              Confirm. (If you believe me)
Sure can?                                                                Are you sure?

Happy can                                                                  Whatever you fancy      

We think we knew Technical analysis after reading a few books or attending a few courses. 

Like Singlish, we have to immerse ourselves into the culture before we see see the context and see the shades of grey.

To a newbie, all  we see is the word "can" in our charts (black and white).

But to a battle-hardened Technical trader, it's Singlish (shades of grey)!