Monday 4 January 2021

Another Money Losing Year - This Got To Stop!


I'm down -3.5% for year 2020.

Started the year at $11.28; ended it at $10.88.

Eh... I wanted to breakout of my $11 to $12 hentak kaki band in recent years, but that's not exactly what I had in mind...


That's the the price we pay for Earn More. 

You want ZERO capital losses in nominal terms, please move over to the Save More camp.

To recap:

2013 - Doubled my trading account (Rampage!)

2014 - Tripled it! (Godlike!)

2015 - Up 88% (Double happiness!)

2016 - Up 13%... (Shy, Shy, Shy - Yes, its from K-Pop Twice's Cheer Up MV)

2017 - Down -8% (Opps!)

2018 - Up 6% (Road to recovery?)

2019 - Down -3% (Smack to the face. In your dreams! Recover your head!)

2020 - Down -3.5% (This got to stop!)

And to think year 2020 started so well.  I was almost kissing $12 during March 2020.

Oh well, I guess its not to be...

A broken clock can still get it right twice a day. I've even underperformed a freaking broken clock!!! 

"Malu" or what?

I am taking off the magi mee pot protecting my man-whore face (tunk chia one). 

Come everyone, you can throw eggs at my face.



  1. Hi SMOL,

    How do you intend to stem this losing trend? Alexander Elder has a few ways, most of it has to do with the mind part.

    1) Reduce half of all new trading positions until it becomes profitable again
    2) Once it hits a benchmark of profitability, increase trading position slowly. Basically have to earn back the past trading size by being profitable
    3) Once you lose a certain %, stop for 1 week. Lose again, stop for 2 weeks, then a month.

    That's all I can rmb reading from.

    1. LP,

      I can poke fun and laugh at myself for a reason - I'm quite satisfied with my discipline when it comes to money and risk management.

      I'm DEAD wrong during 2020, thankfully the losses were quite manageable. Just paper cuts ;)

      I've not repeated the same mistakes I've made in 2017.

      My defence is working. Offence that's another story...

      My allusion to the broken clock is hint to the Trend Following style.

      When wrong, lose as little as possible; when right, go for the jugular!

      To answer your question, I can't stem the losing trend. I can't control what I can't control.

      I can only focus on what I can control:

      When wrong, cut losses fast!

      When right, ADD to winning positions!

      As you can deduce, I've not been adding to winning positions during 2020!!!


  2. Smol,

    This is when naysayers will say "CPF only goes up!"

    "Every month, when I look at my CPF statement, I feel so happy!" 😛

    Method is the easiest to master, Pri 3 math can already.

    Money mgmt slightly less so but still ok lah ... Pri 6 math.

    Mind ... now that's the sucker; even PhD doesn't help! 😂

    1. Spur,

      We are pretty much on the same page ;)

      Its perfectly OK to voluntarily contribute to CPF, just don't own self lie to own self that's "investing".

      Start at age 25, even if you got that 1 or 2 million by age 65, that's not even 1 year of "investing" experience times 40.

      Its ZERO investing experience!!!

      Like learning kung fu but have NEVER been in a real street brawl or fought competitively in tournaments.

      The math is simple enough.

      Even if we have ZERO CPF interest rates, if we can contribute $50K per year to CPF (or put it under our mattress), by 20 years we would have a million dollars!

      Look mom! No brains needed!!!

      And by 40 years (from age 25 to 65), its a cool $2 million dollars ;)

      And if $50K per year is too taxing for you, its OK. We give discount.

      Just contribute $25K per year also can. Slower, but in 40 years at age 65, you still can call yourself a millionaire!

      What has CPF got to do with anything?

      Its almost embarrassing to point out putting money under our mattresses can also make one a millionaire!


  3. Record number of blog posts in our local blogosphere supporting the fact that CPF only goes up! LOL!

    1. CW,

      Of course it does!

      Putting money under our mattresses also will only go up too!


      The fly in the ointment is that's provides we count in NOMINAL terms.

      But if we count in PURCHASING POWER terms...

      The advantage for us old fogeys is we can look back 20 or 30 years and appreciate through REAL LIFE personal examples what counting in PURCHASING POWER meant ;)

      It can be harder for youths voluntarily contributing to CPF today to appreciate $1 today is not the same as $1 in 30 years' time...

      Its just another one of those trend of the decade thingy lah.

      When bei kambings can "easily" get 6% to 8% from REITs, who would voluntarily contribute to CPF??? (Remember the passive income spin?)

      Its only when bei kambings got clobbered with devastating capital losses in REITs, that's when they had their epiphany:

      Oh! Putting money in REITs is investing! Not savings...

      Just like those who got lured into Lehman mini-bonds during the GFC... All for that extra few percentages in interests...

      EARN MORE - requires craftsmanship.

      SAVE MORE - no brains needed. (Need loads of discipline though)

  4. Hi SMOL,

    Your losses in 2017 considered minor already. My 2018 jedi experience was worse.

    Maybe playing crypto now is like your 2013 and 2014. Huat until... when the music stops.


      Maybe... need to shift playground? :P

    2. Rainbow girl,

      Happy for you!

      We choose our own poison. I'll stay clear of cryptos as I don't have an edge over others.

      If I capitulate and join in, you'll probably steal my candy!

      Enjoy your ride in cryptos :)

      Just remember to not let a winning trade turn into a loss (or long term investment)!!!

  5. The dots getting fewer and the connecting up to painter.

    I thought I saw another message beyond losses and CPF?

    All beautiful drawings thou.

    Percentage, sizing and portfolio management is the top down of money management in investment?

    1. Sillyinvestor,

      Well, some see breasts in a glass of ice cubes during those psychology tests!?

      We see what we want to see ;)

      Its not rocket science nor do we need to pay thousands to learn from snake oils telling us the obvious:

      Small wins will cancel out small losses.

      Choose whatever money/risk management poisons that fit our MIND to PREVENT big losses.

      What do we have left?

      Even a broken clock is "right" twice a day.

      When we are right, make sure we go for the jugular!

      Make hay when there's sunshine!

      Let your profits run and all that jazz ;)

      You think why that 10 bagger thingy is so appealing? (Psst, you don't want to have a 10 bagger but that position is only 2% of your portfolio...)

      Of the 3 Ms as in Method, Money, and Mind, understanding ourselves as in the Mind part is the hardest and most crucial.

      When we are in tune with the Mind part, the Money and Method techniques/tools will come naturally.

      If one is naturally risk adverse and cannot stomach losing even $1, then staying away from investing and focusing on savings is the NATURAL and RIGHT thing for that person ;)

  6. 3.5% down is considered not bad in a money-losing year. It's not double-digit losses.

    You may want to check the performance of funds that has similar strategy to yours and trade in similar asset class. If performance is similar, then edge is still intact.

    1. hyom,

      Yes, anything less than a 10% loss I'll consider that as a "paper-cut" ;)

      US hedge funds, in general, has underperformed passive indexing again last year. That losing streak has been going on since 2009...

      Of course there were exceptions that beat the indexes by a mile, but that's the exception.

      Sadly, I'm not the exception :(



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