Early Adopters and Laggards

 

Those of you whole have studied Marketing should know this Diffusion of Innovation Theory chart below:

We too can use this theory when it comes to investing, trading, and speculations - any poisons and vehicles also can!

Next time you buy a stock, ETF, bond, or even contemplating joining the 1M65 crowd, ask yourself, where do you think you fit on the chart above?

Are you the early adopters? (Yeah, you're the influencer or opinion leader)

Part of the early or late majority? (The parrots; the copy cats; you jump, I jump)

Or are you the laggards? (Don't believe, don't believe...Then FOMO!)

Eh... Why did I leave out innovators?

Let's get real lah. If we are innovators, we'll won't be here at this watering hole! Tio bo?

If we wear the white hat, we would be so busy as entrepreneurs at our startups...

If we wear the black hat, where got time to read blogs when we constantly need to come up with "new bottle; old wine" scams to con bei kambings?

I'm not going to write too much on theory. You know, a summary of a summary of a summary... 

Those of you interested in the Diffusion Theory in greater depth would do better to go direct to the source instead! 

People study this in universities OK?

Some of you are probably using the Diffusion Theory already in your investing right now. If you feel like sharing, come share!

Some may be seeing this Diffusion Theory Chart for the first time... (You may want to reflect on it if you invests or trades a vehicle that's completely new to you, but others know it inside out...)

I'll start first!

You know why I blog and read investing/trading blogs and forums?

It's to spot early adopters and laggards.

I use them as my "qualitative" indicators. Wink.

Your turn!

 

I'm Happy like the Owners on the 48th floor of that $1.4 million HDB 5 room flat!

 

By now you should be aware of the 5 room HDB flat that was sold for a record $1.4 million.

HDB flats now can go all the way up to 48th floors! Power or what!?

Of course I'm not surprised. 

Have you forgotten 2021 was a good year for property sellers? Landed, condo, HDB resale, all prices went up!

You think why big daddy came out with the property cooling measures?

When you've made money (earn more), whether its downgrading or upgrading to this 5 room HDB flat, you don't really need to "eat water-melons all the way to the green bits"...

If want to have global recession, please have it within these 1 or 2 years... Then I got 8 years of runway for the recovery play off the lows.

Why?

Because I need to make a decision on my 65th birthday 10 years from now regarding my current HDB 3 room flat. I intend to squeeze blood from the HDB subsidy cherry by having my 3rd bite. Wink.

And the last thing I want is for year 2032 to be like 2003... If can, I would rather 2032 be like 2021! 

I can only wish! 

LOL!

 

Its OK to Sleep Late - you are more Creative, Smarter, and Beautiful!

 

Not I say one!

Love to sleep in? Science says its because you're creative

Creative people sleep more, later, and less well

Good news from science: night owls are smarter and more creative

LOL!

Early risers, hope you've a sense of humour and can take a poke. You belong to the horde, school, flock, and pride. So don't go "triggered" on me!

Just like there are left-brained people, there are also right brained people.

Sometimes in our "enthusiasm", we often make the mistake of assuming there's only one way to Rome - what works for me must automatically work for others!

Long, long time ago, during my early days of story telling, I wrote this Grasshopper and Ant story that set the tone for this watering hole - its OK to be different.

If you're a penguin, stop listening to people telling for you to succeed, you need to soar up high in the skies...

Fish friend, yes you! Why do you set goals and plans to climb trees? I know that's what monkeys do, but have you looked into the mirror lately?

Little swan, don't feel awkward and self-conscious just because you look different from your duck friends. Embrace yourself. You're beautiful in your own way.

Oh! I've left out beautiful, haven't I?

This one no need "experts" to tell us. 

I can tell all the beautiful ladies out there are smiling...

And guys lucky enough to wake up to the company of pretty women, you know I know right?

They sleep like pigs in the mornings, but boy! They sure are scintillating in the night!

How Many Years To Become A Millionaire?

 

OK, a billion is too out of our reach...

Let's take a million Sing dollars then. 

How many years do you intend to achieve it?

Some don't mind 30 years slow and steady grind (tortoises?) - the CPF 1M65 voluntary savers?

Then there are the super aggressive achievers like those crypto youths (hares?) who became millionaires in less than 5 years (I'm sure there are some who took profits like those old fogeys who took profits before the 2000 Nasdaq crash or recent Tech rout).

That would leave the rest of us who are into equities or properties falling somewhere between 5 to 30 years to achieve our first million?

To some youths, a million can be too abstract... No worries! Don't feel left out.

I noticed a number of youths are playing this how I saved my first $100K (before 30?) flexing game...

Just remove the saved to include earned and saved. Wink.

Just the other morning, I was having breakfast at McDonald's when I overheard 4 civil defence NSF flexing their investments in Tesla!?

I'm impressed!

    

In case some of you are tempted to become too money minded, do remember money is just an enabler -  a tool.

We should be the master who wields this tool; not the other way round where money owns us and we the slave...

100X versus 99%

 

Percentages can lie, don't they?

Its a lot easier to manipulate others and own self lie to own self - when we count in percentages.

For those not into cryptos, you can google "Luna crash" to discover for yourself why cryptos in general have crashed more than equities this week.

No, this post is not about cryptos. Just using them as an example.

Have you ever heard the "spin" that its better to long stocks than short stocks?

I mean if we long stocks, there's no cap or limit on how many times our position can double - 2X, 10X, 50X, 100X!!!

But if we initiate a short on stocks, the theoretical max we can make is 100%.

 

(For newbies unfamiliar with shorting out there, we cannot short and hold forever OK? If a stock get suspended or unlisted, how do we collect our winnings?

An added bonus when you do shorting is you'll learn and appreciate the discipline to take profit as in covering your short position before a stock gets suspended!

Its like driving with a metal spike on the steering wheel instead of airbags!

This "market timing" discipline would definitely benefit your long positions too.)

 

Let's take any asset, be it cryptos, stocks, bonds, etc.

If we buy at $1, and that position moonshot to $100, how much have you make in real dollars if we take profit?

On the flip side, if we short at $100, and the position cratered to $1, how much have made again in real dollars when we cover our short?

100X versus 99% gains. Which is easier to spin to unsuspecting "bei kambings"?  (Hope someone can spot the mind manipulation I'm doing right now)

Its the same with stocks indexes.

Would you be better off  if your chosen "passive" index has only declined by -9% recently from all time highs, while you gloat at others who have invested at another index that have declined by -28% from its all time highs?

What if you had bought the STI in 2018 at 3500 while others bought Nasdaq in 2018 at 8000?

Eh...

Of course I can also make STI look good, better, best than Nasdaq just by datamining to find a start date that suits my "thesis"!

  

Moral of story?

Trust but Verify.

And never believe any statistics that you've not personally manipulated yourself!

 

All Time Highs; All Time Lows

 

It doesn't matter right?

I mean if you are not going to take any action whatsoever.

Veterans will get this "poke". 

If you still new on your journey, don't worry. 

You'll learn soon enough!