Monday, 16 November 2020

Singapore Home Sales Fall - Damn Statistics Again!


No wonder!

Singapore Home Sales Fall After Rules To Deter Market Distortion

To those of us outside the industry, its "orh han zi"!

But for those inside the industry, of course they knew it all along. If not, how do they have that edge over "bei kambings"? 

That's the biggest trap for those of us who think we know fundamental analysis...

It makes a huge difference whether we can tell information apart - which is true, which is fake, and which has been "fudged"!

For those who no clue what's going on, ask friends who know a thing or two about technical analysis.

When stocks or properties go up in prices, but transaction volumes keep trending down, what does that tell you?

Oh! Before your imagination runs wild, do remember that technical analysis is voodoo...



  1. TA is look see look see. FA needs some thinking. Seeing is easier than thinking. LOL!

    1. CW,

      Technical analysis is looking at ink blots. We see what we want to see ;)

      Fundamental analysis lulls us with "precision" of math. Its all very comforting until we realise we are making assumption this, assumption that.... Hey! Isn't this guessing?

  2. LOL! Both TA & FA need imagination. Wild or not up to ownself!

    Property Soul has been complaining for years about this perpetual OTP with no forfeiture of option money practice.

    If only stock options & futures also no expiry eh?? LOL!

    1. Spur,

      Perpetual bonds anyone?

      That's what we salespersons do at my weekend sales gig.

      We tell hesitant customers just pay a deposit to "lock-in" the price of the home appliances they eyeing.

      Look! Today last day of sale!

      Customer can change to another brand, add, reduce, or even cancel the whole order anytime ;)

      Where's the risk?

      So. Would you like to fix the delivery date now or put it as KIV Sir?

      $$$ Kaching!


  3. When stocks or properties go up in prices, but transaction volumes keep trending down, what does that tell you?

    Not exactly the same for prop and stock. Mass market Prop people hold, pricing may not drop. At most dont sell and continue to stay.

    Stock is different. Return no good, sell and look for better stocks.

    In SG, still majority are mass market prop for stay or at most second prop. Investment prop of 3rd or more prop, mostly for the super rich. They are not really affected by the crisis, "super rich"!

    1. Rolf,

      You'll be surprised how many retail stock investors practice buy-and-hold, "I'll break-even one day"...

      Its the same with Bitcoins.

      We need laggards and those "capitulating" like Isaac Newton with his South Sea Bubble to join the party ;)

      If not, how do we get to the euphoric volcanic blow-off top for insiders to offload to?


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