Thursday 20 October 2022

My new BTO flat has gone from $4 to $7?


The new HDB letter boxes are the type where we can lock the holes, if we so wish, so that we can't receive spam leaflets and brochures.

But I'm impressed with one real estate agent - she literally mails her leaflet in a proper letter addressed to my flat!?

And imagine doing this to all flats in my estate?

She definitely does not subscribe to Save More. Wink.

Nothing new. 

Didn't our 5,000 years of Chinese wisdom teach us that to attract big money, we need to spend small money as bait?

She knows her marketing or Jedi mind control trick well - the moment I open the letter, in big bold fonts, your home is estimated to worth $738,000 jumps right out at me.


She even customizes her sales spin for different flat types! 

HDB 2 rooms, 4 rooms, and 5 rooms will have different valuations on the cover letters I presume! 


I got my keys to my Dawson flat on Dec 2020. The direct purchase HDB valuation was $398,000. 

In 22 months, now it is worth around $700K in the open market?

Alert regular readers will know I did a sleight-of-hand just now.

Hello, my SERS journey started around June 2014 lah!

The compensated SERS replacement flats prices were "frozen" at that point for us. 

Therefore, it's more correct to say that my new BTO flat has gone up from $4 to $7 in 8 years, not in 22 months. Wink.

Don't laugh. 

Many years back, I was poking all the (innocent or knowingly) shenanigans when people were calculating their ROI or XIRR of their portfolios with weird bombastic returns in percentages!?

The percentage return from $4 to $7 over 22 months is different from over 8 years!!!

The same trick is used during seminars or courses. You'll be surprised how many tertiary educated people fall for it!


If Lady Luck were to continue to smile on me in 10 years' time, I may even get my $4 (and more) back from big daddy.

Then again, even I feel the prices has gone up a little too fast, too quick....

I not greedy. If price were to just jump just $1 more over the next 10 years to $8, confirm I will get my $4 back - now that's a low bar or what?

One thing is clear. 

For those who have put money in Singapore properties over the past 8 years, especially if you have bought direct from HDB, your returns are a lot better than equities. No?

Even more alert regular readers will probably point out I didn't "buy" my HDB Dawson flat at $4...

I bought my Tanglin Halt SERS flat at the resale price of $1.25 in 2003.

I better stop. 

In percentages, it's even more ridiculous...



  1. Smol,

    Complex figure. Simplicity is the way to go.


    1. WTK,

      Simple folks must have the awareness to stay clear of wolves; that's the easy part.

      But how to spot wolves wearing sheep clothes?

      That requires wisdom.

    2. Smol,

      Steer clear of wolves and sheeps.

      Peace of minds.


    3. WTK,

      Simon & Garfunkel's I am a rock, I am an island?

      A rock feels no pain...

      An island never cries...

      Nah! I rather practice our 5,000 years of Chinese wisdom:

      Do no harm; trust but verify.


  2. Smol,

    Erm, last 8 yrs s&p still beat :P

    Saving grace is that last 19 yrs (from 2003), same as s&p ... about 9.5% cagr.

    However if use leverage & get 2 properties in 2003 then win liao keke!

    Too bad cannot buy 2 hdb lol.
    Wait ... there's decoupling?!?

    1. Spur,

      Well, I did leave it grey by saying equities.

      Not just S&P, Nasdaq and HK tech stocks outperformed even more!

      But just like cryptos, that's provided we took profits...

      STI didn't do much during this period. Only saving grace is that since STI lagged US and HK indices on the way up, it's only "fair" STI didn't "crater" as much as US and HK indices...

      Using that "logic", those CPF voluntary contributors must be ecstatic!

      "Look mom! We never lost a single cent!"

      We just need to block out the rising interest rates from Singapore fixed deposits and bonds. Wink.

      Those who plugged the benefits of REITs over physical properties are probably having their awkward "rubber meets the road" moment too....

      "Eh? Why properties still going up in rising interest rate environment? Things so hot that big daddy has to add another round of cooling measures?

      Investing is hard; saving lagi not so simple...

      Not when we are getting negative real interest yield on most saving vehicles!

  3. Congratulations to another HDB millionaire without going through emotional market cycles ride. LoL!

    1. CW,

      I hope properties can take a breather. if not, big daddy will keep adding on more cooling measures until something breaks...And that would not be fun :(

      However, if zero bound interest rates and money printing returns, then HDB 3 room flats selling for above $10 in 10 years' time won't be a surprise!

      When that day comes, NO ONE will set goals to be a millionaire in Singapore.

      And 1M65 will be obsolete ;)

    2. Hi Smol

      Haha another 10 bagger in the making for you?

      1m65 investing heavily in s&p and his side hustle

    3. Small Time Investor,

      I am aiming $8 in 10 years when I hit 65; not too much to ask is it?

      But if its $10, I wouldn't mind! (Aim low; shoot high?)

      The thing about "investing" is that most retail treat it as "religion"....

      Instead of being our own shepherd, we gravitate towards following other shepherds who will do the thinking for us!?

      Of course, the best is to be landowners where we hire shepherds to look after our flocks for us!

      I rather be a nano landowner than to be a mega sheep ;)


Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...