Friday 30 November 2018



  1. Smol,

    Talk is cheap. Action speaks louder than words.


    1. Ben,

      That's because talk anyone and everyone can do!

      But take action?

      Now less competition!


  2. Buy, hold or sell?

    Never mind! I am counting Panadols coming in and also already spent all so pain no more.

    1. CW,

      I think share must share the WHOLE story. Wait bei kambings blindly follow and kenna whacked!

      How much cash and capital you have recovered back from the markets and are now rotting in the bank?

      This is the main course!

      You panadol tactic is just desset ;)

    2. temperament,

      We lose to youths who don't know what cannot be done in a bull market...

      But in a bear market, we may do better as we have first hand experience what "saved" us in the previous bear market ;)

      Those who didn't survive have already given up investing :(

      Now that we don't have a regular day job to bail us out, we can't do what we did to survive a bear market like in the past :(

      The advantage of poking each other is we understand each other's "bawu".

      In the last bear market, the fisherman did not rely on the panadol tactic (this is what he intends to use for the next bear market).

      He survived using his "winning back not the same way he lost" strategy ;)

      I pay no attention to what he says; I steal with pride what he did.


  3. temperament,

    Talk and argue can go in circles... Too much analysis is paralysis.

    Make a decision and take action is "crash got sound"!

    Because we'll get feedback soon enough ;)

    If result good, continue.

    If result bad, ouch! Well, at least now we know what not to do!

  4. temperament,

    Bei kambings who started in 2009 just bought without looking or listening ;)

    That's the power of youth! You don't know what cannot be done!

    Sometimes it can be better to admit we are not that good in taking decisive actions at the critical junctures...

    For eg, if I knew I am like that, then adopting a dollar cost average strategy may be better for me?

    Or maybe stay the hell out of investing? Just voluntarily contribute to CPF and focus on a Save More strategy?

  5. Why so kan-cheong must take first sip? What if the glass of water contains poison?

    Some says the early bird catches the worm. Others say the early worm gets eaten by the bird. The key is to know when. I wish I knew.

    1. hyom hyom,


      You definitely not an opportunist!


    2. What if the glass of water really contains poison? :)

      No need to win every time. Let others test water first sometimes. First-movers don't always win because they pay the heaviest school fees. If they win, congratulate and learn from them. Facebook was not first-mover but Facebook crushed MySpace.

      Not every opportunity we perceive as opportunity are truly good opportunities to act on fast. Some are, some are not. I would rather be a realist who knows which is which, when to be aggressive, when to stand aside, when to try out crash-got-sound. However, one needs to be self-aware that he is not cooking up excuses when the truth is he lacks the balls to take charge of opportunities. LOL. That too is part of being a realist.

      I am slow. Can you explain what is panadol tactic? What is "winning back not the same way he lost" strategy?

    3. hyom,

      Then die lor!

      There will be early adopters, and there will be laggards ;)

      We are who we are!

      The opposite of the coin is that we hesitate and the opportunity will been snatched by others ;)

      Where we are today is the sum of the decisions we have and HAVE NOT taken in the past.

      1. Panadol tactic - Used by yield hogs to console themselves that even though their stocks have been decimated in a bear market, still can collect dividends (as panadols) to ease the pain while waiting for their stocks to break-even one day...

      2. Winning back not the same way you lost - It meant sell your losers and SWITCH to other more promising stocks that will soar in price faster than your original losers in the next bull market.

      This one is much harder for bei kambings who invest to breakeven one day... Who lie to themselves they practice buy-and-hold. And will never admit they have made an investment mistake...

      The 2nd most difficult part is the willingness to sell and take realised losses so as to channel the capital to new winners.

      The most difficult part?

      The ability to spot new winners!!!

      If they can, they won't be in this position in the first place!

      Some may switch instead to top-dowm directional bets in stock indexes as in ETFs or unit trusts after realising they don't have the competence to do individual bottom-up stock picks ;)

    4. Indeed, we are who we are. Hence, don't judge others for their decisions because they are different. I do try to judge myself harshly.

      I'm so glad all of us are different. If everyone waits for other people to test water first, then there will be no breakthroughs. If everyone dives into the water first, there will be too many broken heads.

      Interesting lingo you have in your watering-hole. I think all the strategies will work. It's just knowing when to employ which and for the individual to choose the one that fits him best.

      You have a pleasant weekend working and chatting with your customers.

    5. hyom,

      The lingo came from CW's blog posts.

      1) I'm not a fan of the panadol tactic. It may work for a mild fever. Not so effective if one got pneumonia...

      2) Not winning the same way you lost - this one most traders practice it since we are not married to our positions. Its bread and butter stuff ;)

    6. temperament,

      Rebalancing into cash is a great hedge and like you've said, it works best if the market tanks. Sucks big time if the market rallies instead :(

      No free lunch!

      Its not the same as panadol. Panadols are not ammunitions ;)

      I think you've mistyped. Going into cash is no problem with traders - we buy and SELL.

      Its the "bei kambing" investors that have a problem... They only know how to buy...

      All the books and workshops have taught them about buying...

      No one taught them how to SELL ;)

    7. temperament,

      You happy can oredi!

      Why care what I or others think?

      Personally, I can't find it remotely "similar"...

      One is vested; the other is not.

      Unless you meant you have been sitting in cash since 2009 and using the meagre bank interests as your "panadol" while you watch in pain as the market going higher and higher?

      Well, did that work as "panadol" for you?

  6. Hi SMOL,

    Yup, went thru the last bear without a job ... and 80% committed to stocks ... Not a fun experience LOL! Interesting though Hahaha!

    Hmm don't think the fisherman is relying on panadols for next bear? Tot it'll be his rotting cash tactic? Now that'll be a real opportunity! Haha!

    I suppose panadols more of current tactic to sustain free-of-cost stocks and large amount rotting cash. ;)

    To be opportunistic, sometimes need to be very patient LOL!

    Hmmm able to sit still for years but also able to strike / take action at a moment's notice. A very inhuman trait 😝

    1. Spur,

      If it were easy...

      Anyone and everyone will stop working and declare they are FIRE with just one bull market ;)

      I am guessing after the next bear market, no one will mention FIRE again...

      Some enterprising snake-oils will coin something catchy in the next bull market ;)

      Sell more books and seminars mah!

      My generation it was something simpler - Who wants to be a millionaire?

      Or the millionaire next door that sort of thing ;)

      I guess inflation has made the millionaire goal "too low" a hurdle rate...

      I mean HDB 5 room resale in mature estate already close to $800K.

      Quite a lot of Singaporeans are already "millionaires" when it comes to their net worth - even as HDB heartlanders!


  7. Well, as a Rational Optimist I ask myself what is the name of the manufacturer of that famous glass so many people always talk about? Let me buy some of their shares.

    1. Andy,

      While in Sweden, I had the good fortune to visit the Orrefors glassware factory in Sweden as part of my "cultural indoctrination" ;)

      Now that's craftsmanship!

      So its an Orrefors to me!

      But if I'm a German, I may be partial to Schott Zwiesel ;)

    2. Good choice in both cases.
      Schott Zwiesel even have some shot-glasses for our famous German Schnaps (nothing to do with their name actually). But a bit on the small side for the Rational Optimist.

    3. Andy,

      Anything compared to those humongous German beer jugs will be on the "small" side...


  8. temperament,

    I've guessed right ;)

    Well, the consolation is you did make money!

    Buying is easier right? Its the selling part that's a lot "harder" ;)

    You probably don't notice it (well you should after my many pokes), you have a tendency to chop off your feet to fit into other people's shoes. I guess you have a need to "belong" ;)

    CW's panadol tactic is totally different from what you did, but you just latched on to the "bank interests" from selling too early to be "similar" as "dividends" from not selling early enough!?


    Like I've said, whatever makes you happy!

    To quote Peter Lynch, "We don't get hurt by stocks we don't own that goes up; we get hurt by stocks we do own that goes down."

    I hope you can see the difference.

    I guote others to give credit to my source of inspiration and to avoid plagiarism ;)

    When I debate, I can and like to 单挑。

    I don't need to bring a whole horde of who said this, who said that to give the impression we are legion ;)

  9. temperament,

    Hello, if I can buy at the bottom and sell near the peak, I'll be 10 times richer too!

    And so would anyone and everyone!!!

    GIC and Temasek can't do it. (Remember big daddy bought "ang moh" banks too early during 2008? The Middle Eastern SWFs waited and got much better entry prices)

    Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch did not manage to do it too.

    But I am damn impress with Li Ka-Shing for divesting most of his investments in China the moment Xi Jinping came into power. (That's before China stocks and RMB start to go south several years later)

    OK, he probably didn't expect Brexit after reinvesting those funds into UK infrastruture and utilities.

    These are defensive sectors. Interesting...

    In Singapore's context, that's around the time Li Ka-Shing listed HPH Trust in Singapore. That wry fox can see far into the future!

  10. Interesting topic on talk and action. While SG has been talking about becoming a cashless society for 2 decades, CN rolled out WeChat Pay and Alipay without much talking.

    1. Sanye兄,

      That's why big daddy noticed and gave our local players a "nudge and a poke" ;)

      Just the other day while shopping at Orchard, saw 2 Mainland China girls in their early 20s asking one international retailer whether they accept WeChat Pay.

      When the answer was no, I can see the expression on the girls' faces - like we do when we travel overseas ourselves to a third world country - so backward?


      I remember our Razor hero told pinky he can get it done like no problem... Consider it done Sir!

      Well, I'm still waiting. No sound; no sight.

      Not that I'm interested. I dinorsaur.

      Got cash, NETs, and credit cards. I think that's plenty enough options!

    2. The problem with payment systems in Singapore is lack of a common standard. There are too many of them. The different payment systems need to agree on a common language. The problem is every vendor wants their system to be the standard. It is like Chinese, Malays, Tamils, each group want their language to be adopted as common language. War! Fortunately, we have strong PAP to force everyone to use English as neutral language.

      Razorpay is already here. This is not new technology. However, I don't see how the addition of a new player adds value when too many players is the root of the problem in the first place.

    3. hyom,


      Again its me that's super behind!!!

      It already here? Maybe its the retailers I visit; I never saw anyone of them say can accept Razorpay?

      Yup, now its the Warring States period.

      Just like the many rental bike operators from the beginning; finally a few have pullend out of Singapore. Phew! They are an eyesore :(

      I was smiling when I heard ComfortDelgro setting up a fund to invest in new technology. Caught off guard by Grab and Uber; next time its better to ownself "compete" with ownself than let others do it for them ;)

      I wonder what's NETs doing all this time?

      It like the conversation we had.

      If we only care about maintaining existing business, then why take risks by venturing to something different and untested?

      Its a cycle.

      Small companies are hungrier so a whiff of any opportunity will just jump in heads first, figure out later.

      Once the company becomes big and established, bureaucracy will take over for any new ventures must be vetted and approved by layers upon layers of committee members.

      Can go to school to learn to be a professional manager; you can't study to be an entrepreneur ;)

  11. temperament,

    Don't know, don't care, not interested ;)


  12. Hi Smol,

    Let nature take its course. Be flexible. If have, good. If don't have, make do with the available options. Life is that simple.


    1. Ben,

      I think you'll make a good "cheerleader".

      Too bad I left my corporate job...

      Cannot depend on the more I talked, the more I earned liao :(

      Now that I'm strolling down the mountain, I'm using my own 2 feet.

      Got aches and pain, but at least my feet are now touching the ground :)

      And no more smoking others with mind over matter "koyok" that I used to dispensed to others ;)

  13. temperament,

    See? I don't have to take the bait.

    I knew you'll tell me so no matter what I replied!

    Yup. You don't take the opposite side of Li Ka-Shing ;)

    Bei Kambings don't ask if the yield on a stock is so "attractive", why doesn't the landowners want to keep ALL the dividends to themselves?

    Its like peer-to-peer lending at 18% interest. When the interest rates are so low nowadays, where got someone so "idiot" willing to pay ikan bilis lenders 18% unless that someone is treating all those who lent money to him as "idiots"?

    Peer-to-peer lending has blown-up big time in China...


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