Timing, Luck, and What Might Have Been...

 

You know what?

If the current Ukraine war had happened 2 years earlier, Hing Leong would still be around. And making money hand over fist at the current oil prices!

The owner of Hing Leong got the direction of oil right, but got his timing wrong...

Similarly, if that Singapore nickel trading scam operator was "legit" and not a scam, those high net worth investors would be celebrating their windfall of a win! That's if they went long.

On the other hand, if they had shorted nickel, their investments would have turned into zero... 

Go big or go home?

If big daddy would to sell Chartered Semiconductor or NOL today, would they not have gotten more for their divestments?

Well, Warren Buffett didn't hope one day he'll breakeven on his lemons... Remember the last time oil went ballistic in 2008?

Even Warren Got Hurt By Oil Prices

Risk management is very personal.

Everyone is different.

Some may prefer to lick their wounds and walk away to live to fight another day...

Some will only stop fighting till they got taken out on a stretcher...

Some just want to make money.

Some prefer to be "right"...

The Math for One Day I'll Breakeven...

 

Hands up for those of you during your bei kambing days, honestly thought if we had a -50% loss on a stock position or at portfolio level, all we need is just a 50% gain to breakeven?

Math is hard right?

For those of you whose math is like mine, here's the shortcut above.

Actually, just memorise two will do:

1)  - 20% need + 25% to breakeven...

2) - 50% need + 100% to breakeven! 

Let our track records do the talking.

If you have lots of 2 baggers in your portfolio, then you've earned the right to tell others that if we can't stomach a -50% loss, we should never be in the stock market.

Alternatively, if you have a history of making lots of 25% gains, then you'll be comfortable with any plain vanilla -20% bear markets. They don't phase you.

All of us have our "uncle point". 

That's the capitulation point where we just can't stand the pain anymore and just throw the baby out with the bath water!!!

I've discovered my "uncle point" through crash got sound....

The trick is to get out way before we reach that point.

When Your Money Is Not Your Money

 

I don't think Russia expected it.

Now they know.

Your foreign exchange and gold reserves held at other people's banks can be frozen one!?

Then again, its not entirely new.

The Taliban last year discovered it too. But who cares right? Its so far away and does not concern most other countries.

Today's Russians have discovered what the Greeks, Cypriots, and Icelanders have faced in the past when they go to their ATMs to withdraw cash during times of distress.

Sure, money under the mattress is often ridiculed as money rotting away not earning a yield. You know, the Buffett definition of what's an "asset".

Then again, there's a reason why the Indians and Chinese are big buyers of gold jewelleries.

Both have similar 5,000 years history of wars, famines, and plagues. Regimes and empires come and go...

Got some "wealth" on our bodies and physically at home rotting away is like buying health or life insurance - just in case...