Profit From HDB Policy "Mistakes"

 

OK, calling them "mistakes" would be too dangerous. Wait they ask me to "lim kopi"...

Better say "pivots" instead!

First, a walk down memory lane.

Remember those early generation rectangular HDB flats? 

Let's take those HDB 3 room flats at Tanglin Halt. They were known as "Simplified" or "S" versions - only 1 toilet and bathroom combined. 

If you look carefully, they have no corner flats at all!

Those you see that have converted to corner units were done by the tenants after buying the common corridor space from HDB for a "song". 

I know this for a fact as I bought my 9 sqm common corridor space at Tanglin Halt for a mere $1,000!!! Bargain or what? 

Of course, HDB knew about this "oversight" from crash got sound" - lucky can point the finger to SIT since the Tanglin Halt flats were inherited from them...

So, when the next generation "Improved" or "I" version HDB 3 room flats were built at Stirling Road/Mei Ling Street (toilet and bathroom separate), these flats came with the proper corner units sold at a premium compared to the corridor flats - hence the start of the trend where HDB corner flats were more "valuable" and "popular".

Where was the first HDB 5 room point-block flats built? 

Queenstown Stirling Road again!

OK. since every flat is a "corner" unit in this configuration, corner no longer commanded a premium. 

What's the differentiating factor then? 

For the first time we got HDB 20-storey! Guess when "high floor higher valuation; lower floor lower valuation" became the norm?

 

You get the picture.

How about the time when HDB were building big, bigger, and super humongous HDB flats?

They aren't doing it now. Are they?

What's the unintended consequences?

Punggol loft unit sold for $1.22 million dollars

Those of you who are staying in HDB executive apartments or maisonettes, you were glad you bought BIG correct?

Especially now HDB not building them anymore... Gee, I wonder why (sarcasm)?

Those of you staying at HDB 5 room flats in mature estates like Queenstown and Bukit Merah, have you taken notice the recent new BTOs in our estates were missing HDB 5 room flats?

I not benefitting from it (lowly HDB 3 roomer), but no harm letting you know. So don't sell your HDB 5 room flat for a song! 

Make money don't forget to buy me a drink hor!

Yup, if this trend continues, HDB 5 room flats' supply will get lesser and lesser in good location mature estates.

But they will be "common" in "ulu" non-mature estates. Big daddy is doing social engineering again...

The first step is by "redefining" what is a mature estate. Wink.

Just like "every school is a good school", whether you bite or not is up to you!

And this will lead us to Prime Location Public Housing (PLH).

Were you surprised like me with some of the locations of the PLH BTOs?

I mean the South Waterfront BTO is definitely PRIME location! 

The others??? 

I am betting in 10 years' time, older normal plain vanilla resale flats "near" these PLH flats will be more in demand (exception is South Waterfront). 

Therefore, pray hard there will be PLH BTOs near your flats!

Especially when you are staying at Queenstown, Bukit Merah, Kallang Whampoa, and Rochor.

You got to feel for those staying at Toa Payoh... (Unless you are betting HDB will extend the PHL model to Toa Payoh in future)

 

Who says you can only profit from properties only if we got a 2nd rental/investment unit?

Luck is preparation meeting opportunity - SMOL. (I shameless or what?)

Property is likely to be the biggest expenditure (or investment if you into Earn More) in our lives.

Guess how much time the average youth spend time on it?

In our community, you can see what they do - cutting coupons, jumping through hoops, chasing miles, and voluntarily contributing to CPF in their 20s or 30s???

Keep your eye on the big stuffs; the small stuffs will sort themselves out.

 

How to Influence Others to our Benefit

 

How time flies!

The first time I worked with Stacked Homes was way back in May 2021 where I shared my SERS journey.

Again, not an advertorial, but if you are into properties or renovating your dream home, I'm sure you would have discovered Stacked Homes by now.

The quality of their editorial content and YouTube videos are truly at craftsmanship level.

 

OK, today is not about them.

It's about me having a vested interest in sharing this article to you:

We Rushed To Buy A Home During The Pandemic: Here's Why It Nearly Became A Big Regret...

There are so many quality articles and YouTube videos at Stacked Homes.

Why this particular article???

Alert and regular visitors of this watering-hole will spot it quite easily. Wink.

Yes, it's that short little sentence, "I regretted not getting the top floor."

Since I'm the snake oil that wears the white hat, I'll share this little Jedi trick we play on our sales funnel all the time.

I could have kept quiet and share the article to you, giving you the "misdirection" it's all about how to avoid choosing an apartment with neighbours from hell!

And you would be none the wiser I'm doing a "psychological operation" on you, "Buy top floor lah!"

LOL!

That's why when I catch myself doing something a bit out of character. I'll look up to see who is pulling my strings.

When you make a decision, do you spend time pondering whether it's the actual you making this particular decision, or are you merely being manipulated influenced by others?

OK, this will keep you awake for several nights!

  

Are HDB Flats Affordable? (Dec 2022)

 

I read with interest what CW had to say on this topic:

Ho Ching: Buying an HDB flat akin to paying same rent without inflation in advance for decades

Then I remembered we had discussed it 10 years ago:

Are HDB Flats Affordable?

I'm labelling this post with (Dec 2022).

Let's see 10 years later, will we still be discussing on the same topic again!?

It goes to show in every generation, there will be a new batch of bei kambings coming to the fore.

In every transaction, there will be a buyer and a SELLER.

Bei kambings just look from the buying side. You know, the dog in the manger mentality - if they can't make money, others should not make either!

Youths, who have bigger engine capacity between the ears, will be looking from the selling side, "How do I join those who are selling their HDB flats for more than a million dollars!?"

Crazy Rentals!

 

I couldn't believe it when my relative shared his neighbour is renting out their whole 4 room HDB flat out for $5,200 per month!?

OK, its Queenstown, but still...

Can't you rent a decent condo for $5,200 per month in Queenstown???

It's rented out to 3 Mainland Chinese who are sharing the flat together. Power!

Either the view of the flat is super breathtaking, or maybe the flat is renovated like a palace?

I tell you, if this keeps up, next we would be reading about million-dollar HDB 4 room flats soon!

Edge as in Local Local Knowledge - Or so I thought!

 

We often ask what's our edge when it comes to investing/trading.

Tip: If you have no freaking clue, you don't have an edge lah!

Just this morning, I discovered what I thought was my edge turned out to be merely superficial advantage all along...

I've been staying at Queenstown all my life - all 55 years of it!

If Queenstown were a stock, I'll have an edge over those who are not staying here. I mean I can rattle off what happened 30 years ago, what new shops or buildings popped up recently (technicals)...

I also have first-hand knowledge of the population growth (or lack of) here; the mix - whether it's aging or more young families moving in; and whether there's buying power as reflected by the "attasness" of the retail shops here (fundamentals).

Take a look at the picture above.

On the left side, there's a long row of 2 storey building. This I know about although I never went in and see it for myself - it was a former golf driving range. 

I only knew about it as there's a sign outside near the Queenstown library (what others say).

This week finally walked in to take a look.

Now it has been transformed into Children's Cove and Aqaduck? Interesting! (Child care big business!)

I discover there's 2 empty fields on the right side only after moving to my new high floor Dawson flat???

I mean I've only walked or took public transport outside Margaret Drive road previously.

The 2 fields are nestled inside landed properties estate. 

 

Just googled this morning and discover the top field is the Singapore Cricket Club Rugby Academy, while the bottom field is the Singapore Cricket Club Ground.

I'm not so smug now.

Feels similar?

Especially those of you born and bred Singaporean investors who have been investing in STI stocks for over 30 years?

Even now, I still make "I thought I knew but actually I no freaking clue" mistakes in trading...

LOL!

  

My new BTO flat has gone from $4 to $7?

 

The new HDB letter boxes are the type where we can lock the holes, if we so wish, so that we can't receive spam leaflets and brochures.

But I'm impressed with one real estate agent - she literally mails her leaflet in a proper letter addressed to my flat!?

And imagine doing this to all flats in my estate?

She definitely does not subscribe to Save More. Wink.

Nothing new. 

Didn't our 5,000 years of Chinese wisdom teach us that to attract big money, we need to spend small money as bait?

She knows her marketing or Jedi mind control trick well - the moment I open the letter, in big bold fonts, your home is estimated to worth $738,000 jumps right out at me.

Ah!

She even customizes her sales spin for different flat types! 

HDB 2 rooms, 4 rooms, and 5 rooms will have different valuations on the cover letters I presume! 

Impressive.

I got my keys to my Dawson flat on Dec 2020. The direct purchase HDB valuation was $398,000. 

In 22 months, now it is worth around $700K in the open market?

Alert regular readers will know I did a sleight-of-hand just now.

Hello, my SERS journey started around June 2014 lah!

The compensated SERS replacement flats prices were "frozen" at that point for us. 

Therefore, it's more correct to say that my new BTO flat has gone up from $4 to $7 in 8 years, not in 22 months. Wink.

Don't laugh. 

Many years back, I was poking all the (innocent or knowingly) shenanigans when people were calculating their ROI or XIRR of their portfolios with weird bombastic returns in percentages!?

The percentage return from $4 to $7 over 22 months is different from over 8 years!!!

The same trick is used during seminars or courses. You'll be surprised how many tertiary educated people fall for it!

Hmm...

If Lady Luck were to continue to smile on me in 10 years' time, I may even get my $4 (and more) back from big daddy.

Then again, even I feel the prices has gone up a little too fast, too quick....

I not greedy. If price were to just jump just $1 more over the next 10 years to $8, confirm I will get my $4 back - now that's a low bar or what?

One thing is clear. 

For those who have put money in Singapore properties over the past 8 years, especially if you have bought direct from HDB, your returns are a lot better than equities. No?

Even more alert regular readers will probably point out I didn't "buy" my HDB Dawson flat at $4...

I bought my Tanglin Halt SERS flat at the resale price of $1.25 in 2003.

I better stop. 

In percentages, it's even more ridiculous...

  

Resale HDB flats Cheaper Than HDB BTOs?

 

Another interesting takeaway from the recent Ang Mo Kio SERS, is that in the coming years, we may have to get used to more HDB resale flats selling for less than new HDB BTO flats!

I knew its a matter of time, especially with more ancient HDB flats with less than 50 year leases coming on to the market...

Somehow I've always thought its something to resolve 10 or 20 years later, but after writing my previous post, it suddenly dawned on me its happening in the here and now already! 

Just talk to the affected SERS flat owners in Ang Mo Kio.

This assumption that HDB resale flats will always be more expensive than brand new virgin HDB BTO flats will have to go too!

 

For those who want to verify for themselves:

Ang Mo Kio SERs

Look at the "subsidised" replacement flat selling prices and the compensation the Ang Mo Kio residents are getting.

The Glass Half Full Mindset

Today, seniors aged 55 and above looking for a shorter lease HDB flat are limited to the 2 room flexi scheme where you can lease between 15 and 45 years in 5 year increments.

But if you are more well-to-do (downgrading from private for eg), or need a bigger flat (for your harem of wives), you now have a lot more options! 

3 room, 4 room, 5 room all available to you!!!

Just choose those ancient HDB resale flats with 45 years or less leases remaining and you can have them for less than brand new BTO flats. 

The added benefit is you get to choose the location you like (near children or in popular mature estates), plus in general, older 4 to 5 room flats are bigger than current BTO ones.

And you can use the Bala's Curve to your advantage as a buyer. Wink.

For Singapore permanent residents, it works great if you aged 55 and above. Especially if you are from Hong Kong or Mainland China. You are already used to 50 year leases in HK and 70 years leases in China.

You won't have "aversion" like local Singaporeans have when it comes to HDB flats with shorter leases.

Sellers, I got your back too.

If you couldn't read between the lines, I've been helping you all along.

More important is not the decaying lease; its demand.

I'm not going to spoon-feed you. 

If you want to educate yourself, go study why those ancient HDB landed terrace houses (3 room) and Tiong Bahru walkup apartments can be sold for more than a million and above - defying the Bala's Curve valuations!?

Of course no one can help you if you HDB flat is in a lousy location. That's a given.

Then you best bet is still SERS!

Thankful for my SERS jackpot! Its not guaranteed anymore....

 

When a reader congratulated me 3 weeks ago on my lucky timing for SERS - compared to the Ang Mo Kio SERS debacle - I was initially in a bit of shock and surprise:

No way SERS residents have to top-up for their replacement flats one lah!

Even "experts" and academics were assuming, as recent as May 2022, those affected by SERS would get a new replacement with full 99 year lease without any top-ups... (not going to give the links to save embarrassment to the 2 academics)

I waited 3 weeks to make this post.

I need to do my Trust and Verify first. And let the dust settles.

Have to. 

There's a lot of half-truths, assumptions, opinions, and down right misinformation floating around in the media. 

My SERS was announced 8 years ago. 

Remember when I said those who got married and bought their HDB BTOs at 25 would do much better financially than their peers who focused on career first and bought their first HDB BTO at 35?

Well, what world of difference that 8 year make! Talk about Market Timing!!! 

Especially when you consider the below factors:

1.  My Tanglin Halt flat lease starts from1971, Ang Mo Kio ones start from 1979. 

2.  Our average Tanglin 3 room flat size is 55 sqm; the replacement 3 room flats are 65 sqm. 

3.  Of the 5 replacement sites, 4 are HDB Premium flats, 1 is normal HDB flats. Choose HDB Premium flats no need cash top-up! Let that sink in for a moment.

Of course we have to top-up cash if we want to upgrade from 3 room to 4 room - those of us with 3 room corner units have that option since our flats are 64 sqm, bigger than the 55 sqm ones on the common corridors.

Same if your existing Tanglin Halt flat is on the ground floor and you want the top floor for your replacement flat. I mean that's not apples to apples right?

Safe to say, majority of us got extra cash in our pockets together with a fresh 99 year lease. 

How I know?

Well, my SERS compensation is enough to pay for one of the most expensive 3 room replacement flats (top floor) without any cash top-ups. 

You can see the trend.

Put the Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) and this recent Ang Mo Kio SERS exercise together, it would be much harder to squeeze blood out from the HDB cherries going forward...

Those who are trying to position themselves for the next SERS, you may want to temper your expectations a bit.

If your CPF is bountiful from regular CPF top-ups, its not an obstacle. SERS is still financially profitable, never mind the cash top-ups. 

But if you are low in cash, CPF, and can't qualify for a bank loan, its a different story...

Timing is Everything!

There's a lesson here for those of us on the Earn More path. 

Women know this intuitively.

Meet the right man? 

Idiot! He's married...

Some bitch has her claws and fangs in him already!!!

I'm Happy like the Owners on the 48th floor of that $1.4 million HDB 5 room flat!

 

By now you should be aware of the 5 room HDB flat that was sold for a record $1.4 million.

HDB flats now can go all the way up to 48th floors! Power or what!?

Of course I'm not surprised. 

Have you forgotten 2021 was a good year for property sellers? Landed, condo, HDB resale, all prices went up!

You think why big daddy came out with the property cooling measures?

When you've made money (earn more), whether its downgrading or upgrading to this 5 room HDB flat, you don't really need to "eat water-melons all the way to the green bits"...

If want to have global recession, please have it within these 1 or 2 years... Then I got 8 years of runway for the recovery play off the lows.

Why?

Because I need to make a decision on my 65th birthday 10 years from now regarding my current HDB 3 room flat. I intend to squeeze blood from the HDB subsidy cherry by having my 3rd bite. Wink.

And the last thing I want is for year 2032 to be like 2003... If can, I would rather 2032 be like 2021! 

I can only wish! 

LOL!

 

Keppel Club HDB BTO - Joy for Majority; Dismay for the Few

 

Let me first share with you one interesting story about my time in Shanghai.

There's this purchaser that was newly promoted to Business Development Manager. In her first year, she gave the senior purchaser in her team quite a big salary raise.

After the pay increase, the salary gap between this Business Development Manager and her purchaser has become quite negligible...

Guess what?

This Business Development Manager rightfully turned around and asked HR how come a Business Development Manager pay is no different from that of a purchaser?

Smart girl!

Not only did she "bought" the loyalty of the senior purchaser in her team, now this Business Development Manager has a strong hand when it came to her own salary negotiations!

I knew of this story because HR was poking me - this Business Development Manager was one one of my mentees in my Leadership course - what the hell have I been coaching them!

LOL!

So with this story in mind, I am pleasantly surprised big daddy is allocating a huge chunk of the land at the Keppel Club for HDB BTOs!?

Of course I am pleased! 

Great! They are creating another Pinnacle. 

I thought it would be just some small "token" project to "wayang" we are inclusive and all...

HDB residents of Telok Blangah, and especially those who bought the BTOs there recently, no need to pray liao... Its confirmed!

For context, newer readers may want to read this previous post:

HDB Prime Location Public Housing Good For Pinnacle Flat Owners!

Of course happiness and joy for some can be dismay for others...

Especially if you can't stand HDB heartlanders, and deliberately avoided those condos that are smack right between HDB flats in suburbia...

Well, that's the price for not choosing areas like Claymore Hill, Cairnhill, or River Valley Road... These are tried and tested condo enclaves; all private.

Can't blame you.

Who would have thought such a prime waterfront location would be given to HDB heartlanders?

Even rental units!!!???

Arrgghhhh! 

 

Use Cash Or CPF To Pay For Your Home?

 

Missing the forest for the trees...

That's how I feel whenever I read articles or blogs debating whether its better to pay for our homes using cash or CPF.

I know...  That's rich coming from me - a no study HDB street urchin - making fun of those who study too much until their thinking become "short, short, teh"...

Or focusing too much on "precision" at 2 decimal places when they should be focusing on multiples of $100K!

Let me explain.

First of all, the discussion is moot if you do not have enough cash to pay for your property purchase, 

Well, CPF it is then!

LOL!

That was easy!

Now let's pretend you are a high income earner and can easily afford to service your home mortgage entirely with cash, 

Plus you are a fan boy/girl of voluntary contributions to CPF. 

Does it make sense for you to pay your housing loan with CPF and then make voluntary contributions in cash?

Isn't it easier and less of a hassle to use cash for your home purchase?

Now that we have got the 2 low hanging fruits out of the way, let's focus on what's important and forget about sweating the small stuffs...

I did share in the past one of my ex-colleague lamented he paid $100K more for his resale HDB 5 room flat than his neighbour one floor down.

Exactly!

I can never understand all this fascination with CPF "accrued interest" or negative/positive cash sales.

In simple england, it simply means:

1)  If you use CPF to pay for your home, and after selling, if you can't pay back to CPF what you have withdrawn and the accrued interests comfortably, its simply means you were either "unlucky" or you suck at the property game. 

Your property can't even beat the CPF 2,5%...  (Would you "invest" in a stock just to make a 2.5% return annually?) 

2)  If you use cash to service your property purchase, I'll be easy on you. Let's use zero % interest and assume your cash has no opportunity costs.

After selling, minus all the stamp duty, legal fees, agent commissions, and what not; if you're under water, that would mean you suck even harder... Time to visit Waterloo Street Kwan Im Ma for her blessings?  

Money stashed under your mattress would have outperformed your property purchase...

Think about that for a moment.

Now do you see what's important and more priority when it comes to property?

Property Sucks When No One Wants To Come Here

 

Cantopop Star Joey Yung Sells Hong Kong Flat At A Loss

Population decline can be offset with immigration, letting in more foreign talents/workers, and investor friendly policies to welcome foreigners investing into our local properties.

Little can be done if talented Singaporeans want to emigrate out, and foreigners have no interest to either work or invest here...

Combined with my previous post The Biggest Downside To Owning Property, that's why a city/country needs to Earn More...

And have the ability to protect what it earns!

The ancient thriving city states like Rome, Athens, Carthage, and Venice all have one thing in common: they have a bad ass military to protect their six!

 

The Biggest Downside To Owning Property

 

Looking at the latest situation in Ukraine, I guess property's biggest downside is you can't bring it with us!

I mean if we have to take the first flight out of a country, that's that!

This is not new to us in South East Asia.

Remember the Vietnamese boat people crisis of the 70s when North Vietnam took over Saigon in 1975 after booting out the US forces?

Then in Dec 1978, Vietnam invaded Cambodia to kick out Pol Pot. Its a case of Russian supported communism against China supported communism... Argument on who is redder than red?

How about more recently in Myanmar?

I mean if you owned properties in these countries, how to take your money out if most of your wealth is in properties? 

I mean you got to have great foresight like Li Ka-Shing!

The moment Xi Jinping took over, Li got out of China! 

Now years later, we discover why...

Then again, it was the same Li Ka-Shing that bought into Hong Kong's bombed out property sector in 1967 when riots broke out courtesy to the Cultural Revolution in China...

When I'm in my youth, I don't care much for NS. 

Now as old fogey, I'm glad we have NS!

What's the point of wealth if we can't protect it?

That being said, I hope I don't have to be reunited with my AR15 ever again...

No wonder Singapore properties are so popular with foreigners...

Now that's a vote of confidence to our SAF!

 

Big Daddy's (Not Invisible) Hand Over Property Versus Stocks

 

When we invest or trade Singapore stocks, we don't have to worry about big daddy coming out with equities "cooling measures" to curb the perceived rapid speculative price appreciations right?

No free lunch.

That also meant there's no one to ring the bell at a stock market top...

Which is why in a bear market, the percentage losses is always far greater for stocks over properties. I guess this is not news to old fogeys out there. Wink.

Contrast this to Singapore's properties.

The moment when things get exciting, big daddy not shy to remove the punch bowl to the dismay of all vested interests....

Singapore property investors can't be blamed if they're envious of their counterparts in Hong Kong; US; Australian; and Canadian cities. Their property prices can shoot to the sky and stay there at their lofty levels for years.

That's until they crashed.

That's when Singapore property investors take comfort although we also have our property "crashes" and bear markets, we have less to fall from giddy heights...

Less alcohol from punch bowl, less hangover the next day.

That's something Singapore stock investors/traders found out the hard way - crash got sound!

   

There's another interesting difference. 

When stock market crashes, other countries may manipulate intervene by propping their local stock markets.

Japan is doing directly with their central bank buying ETFs of Japanese stocks. While US and Europe support their stock markets indirectly through "money printing".

We? 

But when it comes to Singapore properties, its not always about property cooling measures... People often forget we do have property boosting measures! 

Let's take the more obvious one like in 2005:

• The relaxation of foreign ownership rules on apartments

• An increase of the maximum loan-to-value ratio from 80% to 90%

• A reduction of cash down payments from 10% to 5% for home purchase

• Allowing non-related singles to use their CPF to jointly purchase residential properties.

 

Then there's the Upgrading and Asset Enhancement for HDB flats. Remember those?

How about big daddy's policy on foreign talents and immigration? 

Population 10 million?

And my favourite of all, HDB subsidies for BTO flats and all those housing grants and what not! 

(Imagine if I buy Singtel or DBS stocks, I can get a grant for staying near my parents!)

So there you go!

You want to drive without speed limits, without annoying big daddy reminding you to wear seat belts, you choose that path.

You like big daddy's warm and reassuring hand holding your bxlls palm, you go that way.

Just know that BOTH paths can equally make, or lose a lot of money.

What?

You don't want to lose money ever?

Well, there's always CPF... (just don't call it investing OK?)

Is Property A Good Inflation Hedge?

 

Well, if you ask old fogeys likes us, those with 30 or more years of life experience after school, the answer is crystal.

Especially for those of us that have benefitted from the past asset enhancement exercises and price inflation appreciation of the past decades.

Together now, "Thank you Mr Shorty!"

But to someone just starting out in your 20s, it can be confusing as there are conflicting messages from all over the place...

Have you read the article below from our nation building institution?

More People Couldn't Fully Repay CPF After Selling Property in 2020

Its like looking at a glass of water with ice cubes - we see what we want to see...

If people can't repay CPF together with the accrued interest of "only" 2.5%, do you think their properties have beaten inflation?

Eh?

Like that might as well use cash to pay property loans and let our CPF money earn that sweet sweet 4%?

Wait a minute. Not so fast!

Read carefully. Its for year 2020! (Its driving using the rear view mirror)

In the article, there's this paragraph:

"In the whole of 2020, private home prices gained 2.2 per cent while HDB resale prices rose 5 per cent."

5%... That beats CPF's 4%; now that's a start! 

Sorry to private property owners though... (But no one crying for you; count in money you still beat HDB heartlanders hands down)

And next sentence below the above mentioned paragraph:

"Flash estimates for last year (2021) showed that private home prices climbed at a faster pace of 10.6 per cent while HDB resale prices surged by 12.5 per cent.

It changes everything! Doesn't it?

That's not what the headline suggests right?

What do you think?

Come this July 2022, want to bet CPF will report more people are able to repay their CPF after selling their properties during 2021?

What's the take away?

1.  Read the actual article! Not just the headlines... LOL! (I know, I know; reading is hard)

2.  Market timing is real. (You can call it Luck if you prefer)

3.  To find a hedge against inflation, you have to first have an opinion (gasp!) on what's the future inflation rate going forward...

Last Nov 2021's CPI is 3.8%. We'll have a 2% increase in GST this year...

If you believe we'll continue to have relatively low inflation rates between 1-2%, then certain vehicles may make sense.

But if you believe the inflation rate would probably range between 3-4%, then certain vehicles will be out... Wink. 

There's a reason why big daddy evaluates GIC and Temasek performance after discounting the global inflation rate.

No worries if you are a koala bear/panda as you buy Singapore local/local properties and stocks only. Just use our domestic CPI figure can oredi! 

4.  Trust but Verify. Do you own thinking. Decide for yourself. Take responsibility.

 

Overseas Property Investing Risks

 

Property disputes in Batam

Need we say more?

Another good example in showing the difference between knowledge and wisdom....

That's why my former Swiss expat boss have a lawyer vet through his employment contract each time he got a new overseas assignment - especially when big money is involved. 

Ever puzzled why companies have to pay millions in compensation when firing their CEOs?

The CEOs got good, better, best lawyers drafting their employment contracts!!!

It reminded me of a legal case I learnt during night class decades ago...

A construction company agreed to hand over a property development to the owner AFTER completion of a 12 floor office building.

Guess what?

The construction company just build up to 11 floor and never handed over the building, citing construction delays... Meanwhile conveniently leasing out the lower floors in its possession.

Like that also can!?

So when people "promise" a lease extension for a "premium"... The wise and savvy ones would ask, "What is a premium?"

You "assumed" its a few hundred Ks? 

People can ask for a billion or a trillion! Nothing wrong right?

You think why big daddy dropped the 99 year leasehold bombshell on us years ago?

Its to prepare the ground for the day they take back those "ancient" HDB flats when their 99 year leases are up - without compensation.

Not every citizen got study Business Law...

Show with example the best:

Geylang private homes returned to State

Glad our repossessions are done more professionally; no fuss, no muss.

Many years ago when a Mainland Chinese supplier told me he prefers to work with Singaporeans, he has to be very alert when working with Hong Kongers and Taiwanese, I didn't take it as a compliment. 

What he meant between the lines is that Singaporeans are follow the law straight straight "bei kambing" little red riding hoods... Much easier to deal with! 

Sure, overseas property investing can be "cheaper". 

If going overseas to do your university degree, you would want to go to universities that are more prestigious than our local universities right?

But doing overseas property investing, similar to you no choice have to go overseas to study as you can't get into our local universities, is same same but different!

Same same overseas degree; academic respect not the same. 

As evident in your starting pay...

Just ask yourself. Would the Batam developer do what they did if majority of the owners were local Indonesians?

Any property developments that are targeted exclusively to foreigners, is that a good thing or bad thing?

Don't look far, just look around back home. Wink.

Passing tourist dragon can't beat local local snake!

HDB Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) Great For Pinnacle Flat Owners!

 

Remember I was explaining how owners of those "rare" HDB terraces houses were pretty upset when their houses were chosen for enbloc eons ago?

Yup, there are always exceptions in life. Someone's loss is another person's gain.

Those "lucky" HDB terrace house owners that were not chosen for enbloc got to thank big daddy big time! 

Big daddy made those "rare" HDB terrace houses even "rarer"!

If I'm a flat owner at Pinnacle, I would be jumping with joy! And high-fiving with my neighbours right now! 

As big daddy build more PLH BTOs in future, those HDB flats located in prime location (Pinnacle) that have no extra encumbersome rules and restrictions, what do you think?

Will they not be more popular? 

Duh!

I wonder who are those 7,500 "kaypohs" that so "generously" provided feedback to big daddy?

It would interesting to find out how many were staying in private condos or landed properties?

Is it a social economic class thing?

Ahem, rental incomes and capital gains should only be the purview of private property owners. 

Subsidised public housing should be for living in purposes only, OK? (KNS)

Or can it be the majority of the 7,500 contributors are sour grape HDB heartlanders doing the dog in manger thing? 

Wait. Of the 7.500, some are waiting to get their first HDB flats?

You know what would be "justice"?

Let them get their PLH BTO flats!!!

When they gave their 2 cents' worth, I bet these Charlie Browns probably thought they won't be so lucky as to get the ballot for these PLH BTOs!

Readers who have bought the recent BTOs at Telok Blangah, come, I congratulate you!

Some of you is pure dumb luck.

But some of you is "preparation meeting opportunity". Wink. 

You took noticed when the Greater Southern Waterfront project was first announced in 2013, and more importantly, you took action!

Now you pray a future PLH BTO would be announced near your flats.

I don't think you need me to spell it out for you...

There is still hope for those of us not staying inside the Central Area or Greater Southern Waterfront project.

There is another definition called the Central Region.

I'll also use this Wikipedia link for Central Region to make it easier for bei kambings to determine which HDB towns are included. 

A quick question: Where is Telok Blangah!? 

This proves those who are staying in Telok Blangah, Bukit Merah or Queenstown have our backyard edge over those who not familiar with the area. Wink.

Its a big region. 

Look, big daddy says they have plans to launch one PLH BTO per year...

It won't happen within the next few years. But in a decade or two? 

When all the available land in the Central Area or Greater Southern Waterfront have been allocated to PLH BTOs?

HDB flat owners staying at Kallang or Marine Parade area would be hoping the future Dakota BTOs would be part of PLH!

Same for me. 

I mean Bukit Merah and Queenstown are within walking/cycling distances to the Greater Southern Waterfront project. 

Bukit Merah residents you go via Henderson Road; we in Queenstown use the Alexandra Road. Both very green and scenic. 

We don't compete amongst ourselves. Either one of us get, we'll share in the halo effect! Its all good.

Our "competitor" will be those residing in the East. They got "lao goh" to lobby for them!?

LOL!

What about Bishan and Toa Payoh in the North of Central Region?

Eh... Sorry. You're not in the running.

Not I say one hor!

P.S.  You know why so many suck at fundamental analysis? Don't read annual reports?

In the wall of text for the Bishan and Toa Payoh link, if you not observant and missed that one sentence...

I know. 

Reading is hard.

SkyParc@Dawson Lauded For Good Design And Construction

 

Not I say one hor!

HDB said so!

For those who prefer to Trust but Verify:

Living With Birds And Bees

Luck is sometimes preparation meeting opportunity.

Total 5 sites for us to choose our replacement enbloc flats from.

With the exception of 1 site where its "normal" HDB flats for the budget conscious, the other 4 sites are same same "premium" HDB flats. 

All paid similar prices; yet my chosen site won the design and construction award. Wink.

Let's just say my chosen site is definitely not the most popular one during balloting. Heng ah!

If not, how would I have gotten the top floor with my ballot number?

To paraphrase Steve Job's connecting the dots backwards, my time spent loitering at the Art Club during my secondary school days has turned out useful after all...

I've shared in my "look see, look see" photos that I have a thing for design and sculptures, and architecture is 3D Art that's all around us!

Appreciating good design comes natural to me.

Especially the sensuous 36, 24, 36 curves on the female form.

Now that's heavenly Art! 

Health District Pilot Project Launched In Queenstown

 

If you are planning to monetise your private property to free up cash by rightsizing to a HDB flat during your retirement, you may want to check this out: 

Health District Pilot Project Launched In Queenstown

On one end, you get to immerse yourself into the peacefulness and greenery of Queenstown. 

We have Botanic Gardens, Mount Faber, Henderson Hill. Hort Park, Labrador Park all within walking distances - if you are into hiking or walking that sort of thing. 

Then there's the awesome rail corridor that used to be our railway track.

And on the other end, if you appreciate the finer things in life, like scintillating dining experiences, or checking out cool new watering holes, we got you covered!

Orchard Road and the future Greater Southern Waterfront project are just a stone's throw away. Treat them as our "backyard".

Getting a cab or private hire ride home after midnight won't cost you a bomb! 

Retirement does not mean no fun allowed anymore... Wink.

No rush.

There is plenty of time.

Cheers from Queenstown born and bred resident!

Too Focused On Opportunity Costs Can Drive You Mad!

 

Question: How often have you spotted Emperors not wearing any clothes?

I just spotted one recently.

So funny. 

Its about the so called "research" that if we use less CPF and more cash to service our housing loans, one of the examples (theory one of course) showed we could get our hands on a cool extra $800K from our CPF interests alone!

Its that easy! 

Just by not touching our CPF for housing loans!!!

Why stop there?

If we want to play Opportunity Costs "manipulation", I have more to contribute!!!

The CPF Ordinary Wage ceiling is $6,000 per month.

The maximum amount of mandatory and voluntary contributions that a person (employee or self-employed person) can make in a calendar year is subject to the CPF Annual Limit of $37,740. (Or $3,145 per month)

1. High Wage Earner/Corporate High Flyer

Let's say at age 30 you are earning more than $10,000 per month, imagine if big daddy only caps CPF contributions from the employer side, and no artificial salary cap from the employee side, how?

Isn't that easier? No need to do voluntary CPF contributions some more!

Think of all the CPF interests in hundreds and hundreds of thousands (maybe millions?) you are leaving on the table by not being able to max out your CPF contributions from employee side, in tandem with your salary growth, as a corporate high flyer!!!

Time to talk to your MP?

2. Old Fogey Savvy Long Term Successful Investor

This old fogey will advise his children - must invest! 

Why settle for a few percentage in CPF interests when he had enjoyed around 20% annual returns from investing with Warren Buffett's Bershire Hathaway stock for 3 decades and more?

Just calculate the obscene amount of money he would have left on the CPF table had he only saved and not put money to work for the past 30 years....

 

3.  Youths High On Cryptos

These youths must be scratching their heads, "Why settle for single or double digit compounding when we could have exponential compounding with cryptos?"

I mean crypto acolytes are counting 2 baggers, 5 baggers, 10 baggers in years; not decades!

Ah! Never trust any adults above age 30. They have no clue what talking them!

4.  Entrepreneurs that made it

Eh... If you became a billionaire overnight from listing your startup in HK or Nasdaq, or able to afford Good Class Bungalows in your 30s, never mind your business not listed yet...

I would think you have more exciting ideas swirling in your head than concerning yourself with "eating water melons all the way to the green bits"...

Ding!

The Peanut Joke

Those of you who got study cost accounting may know this Peanut Joke.

If you haven't, I would strongly recommend you read the link below. 

Especially if you are into Fundamental Analysis that sort of thing:

Funny Story on Activity Based Costing

Knowledge is just potential energy; its power only when we know how to apply it!