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Thursday, 31 December 2015

My Virgin 10 Bagger


Now why this didn't this happen when I had a full time job?

Idiot. Trade full time and at the "lovable" age of 48 then give me.

Hey! Don't look at me.

I've no clue whether this is causation or correlation...

Never look at gift horses in the mouth.


A quick recap.

I started trading full time 3 years ago. (That's how you manipulate statistics. Which year and month you chose as index 100 is key! Wink.) 

2 years ago I doubled my trading account.


And this year?

It's up 88%. (Nice pretty numbers or what? Double happiness; double playmates! Yes, its been that long...)

You know what's better than linear compounding? It's exponential compounding! And that 2 year streak just ended... (Talk about easy come; easy go... It ended just when it started to get exciting... I think got to stop with the sexual innuendoes!)


Is your Math good?

From what I've just said, some of you may spot 1 or 2 mathematical facts that may jump right at you.

1.  Yup. It's 11 bagger in 3 years - 1x2, then x3, then x1.88. (OK, I cheated. I rounded it down to 10 bagger as it sounds more powderful as a headline. Bite me!)

2.  In percentages, its up and down like a yo-yo; but in $ money terms, its growing year by year. And that's why I don't count in percentages.

If I told you I started with $1 in my trading account, and after 3 years I made $10, would you still have a "wow" in your mouths?


1 minute celebration

There! I've already taken the moment to cheer myself and gave myself a gentle pat on the back. Especially when 2015 wasn't a walk in the park like in 2014

Now I'll let it go.

The results of this year and/or previous years have absolutely no bearing on next year.

Letting go...


No trading goal settings for 2016

Sorry, no matter how "SMART" your investing or trading goals are, don't you find it silly to set goals on consequential results we have no control over?

Me? It's still back to the trading basics of focusing on my entries and exits - that's craftsmanship.








62 comments:

  1. sifu when will 'quan so wu kong' to me? :P

    ReplyDelete
  2. in trading, there is no such thing as bagger! never heard of it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i only hear it in investment world and i still don't get it. whats a bagger, don't really care.

      Delete
    2. coconut,

      Ya lor. That's why I say I don't count in percentages.

      But when bantering with "investors", must speak in their lingo mah. If not how to first seek to understand, then to be understood?

      Delete

  3. In investing, we do have some control. Want more dividends?

    Find more capital from earned income. Why no control over dividend income?

    Go and earn more from our job, then dividend income will grow bigger! LOL!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CW,

      I'll put on my England facilitator hat on now.

      The word you meant is "influence".

      If I'm a yield hog investor, and I have a goal to achieve $100K in dividend income for 2016, all I have to do is invest $2 million into a portfolio of stocks that gives me a 5% yield.

      Come end 2016, will I get $100K as planned?

      Can get more if there's a lot more special dividends declared :)

      And there's also a possibility can get less due to dividend cuts :(

      Unless we are a majority shareholder who can tell the CEO how much dividend to distribute, how to "control" our consequential dividend goals?


      I like you sugar-coated poke. Does dividend investing require skill?

      Same dividend stock, one investor may have a better yield on cost than the other. Better entry?

      Same dividend stock, one investor is sitting on double digit unrealized losses, while another may have pocket realized gains and waiting to re-enter at even better yield now that the capital base has grown bigger. Better exit?

      There's a reason why dividend stocks were meant for widows and orphans. But if one invests like widows and orphans - assuming craftsmanship not needed - well, some are finding it out in 2015 for the first time...

      A competent dividend investor is no different from all other competent investors, traders, speculators, gamblers - better entries; better exits ;)

      Delete
  4. Hi SMOL,

    The first q that comes to mind is what's the absolute amt you are talking about, haha :) If pple tell me in %, I'll ask in absolute numbers. If pple tell me in absolute numbers, I'll ask in %. Must find out the full picture mah.

    Hope your next yr also huat big big ;)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LP,

      Shit! Cannot get past you...

      Cannot pigeon-hole you as just an "engineer". You play the guitar and draw; you use BOTH sides of your brain.

      You are not binary; you fuzzy grey you!


      Thanks! At the rate my hormones are raging inside me, I think I better get a girl friend in 2016 or make a trip to Bataam ;)

      Delete
  5. Hi SMOL,

    Regardless of absolute amount. It's a performance deserving a thumb up.

    But why does it matter if the virgin bagger happens come when you are working or now? A guess is when working that time, you will hoot big big?

    But hoot big big double u will take money off, maybe it's the same?

    Or...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sillyinvestor,

      Aiyeoh!

      Bend over. Let me give you a kick in the you know where!

      New readers don't know never mind. By now you still reading my posts literarily?


      It's a poke to those who believe all it takes is just 5-10 minutes a day, just read book, or attend a 3 day seminar, etc.

      Read "My Story" again. You think my trading journey started 3 years ago?

      It merely shows what commitment to craft meant. Trading full time and casual trading part time is not the same.

      Just look at our senior fisherman - 16 years of euphoric and orgasmic joy at market tops; and the despondency and despair when experiencing capitulation of convictions during market bottoms.

      His achievement is even greater compared to mine - he invests and trades part-time. But look at the commitment to his craft!

      All those nauseating powerpoints and record keeping!!!

      Wait. Can you see where he highlights his entries and exits ;)


      Idiot! You probably think I'm boasting ;)

      I'm in a happy mood, so just thought reveal a bit of cleavage - just for the holidays only OK?

      Delete
    2. SMOL

      Dun kick my face. I give my butt

      I know u are poking ... Just didn't catch the while I am still working poke

      Boasting ... Happy can Liao

      Happy new year

      Ganbei

      Delete
    3. Sillyinvestor,

      You know I poked you the hardest because you command a very special place in this watering hole.

      Yes, I am tougher on you than CW. That shows how much I treat you special.

      I believe you may be familiar with the Buddhist parable of the Jewel hidden in the Robe.

      I hope you'll find it on your own and we'll see posts of joy and laughter at your blog ;)

      Meanwhile, what "can't pay"?

      I pay!

      Delete
  6. Congrats SMOL! Yup, nobody will know the pain, sweat (literally), tears, euphoria, desperation, confidence, self doubt and a whole myriad of emotions plus throw in some sleepless nights, nightmares etc in over a long time to get to where you are today! You deserve it for not giving up and persevering on! Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Joyce,

      Thanks! It takes one to know one ;)

      Beginners always focus on the money bit...

      A good entry and a good exit may still result in a loss...

      And a bad entry and exit can be super profitable!

      We can only control what we can control on our part - and leave what we can't control to the vagaries of the market.

      Although 2015 is the "worst" in % terms over these 3 years, I think you can empathise why I need to give myself a pat on the back ;)

      Man! What a tough year 2015 turned out to be!

      Delete
  7. wah so masny good comments!

    ya, if you can don't lose money 3 years in a row is good already, let alone making some, keep it up.

    but but, you have to see yourself on another level, see beyong what you currently is and not be satisfy with the present result/moment.

    if you are A and you want to achieve to be B, then you must try hard to think and feel like you are already B and get rid of some of the unwanted A! the transformation will take place naturally.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. coconut,

      Thank you. Commenters here fantastic or what!?


      Ah! Yes, the visualization technique. Thanks!

      Working on shedding the "retail" adjective from the "trader" noun ;)

      You have a super New Year!


      Delete
  8. Congrats to finding your 10 bagger!
    I noticed it is in singular, so is it considered as 1 gem among stones or 1 big diamond among rubies?

    I still don't know how to do trading - too cheem an art for noobie me. Need to do a lot of technical analysis, chart analyzing and what not >.<

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rainbow mei-mei,

      Thanks! It's my Futures Trading account.

      Have not got a 10 bagger single stock position yet :(


      We all have to take the time to find our own preferred choice of poison ;)

      Even now, I am always exploring different trading vehicles and trading setups.

      Perhaps that's why I still single... I'm like to browse, sample, and try...

      Stay away from men like me! Lucky all my ex are now married. I was so worried I may have messed up their "green-spring". Phew...

      Come to think of it, I not so bad. Still got conscience ;)

      Delete
    2. Wah, take care not to get burnt in the process. Let me wiki what's Future trading...

      Must be your ex got enlightened and realised the right traits to look for in men after that. Haha

      Delete
    3. Yup, I'll make a lousy husband. But then, I'm the man with the slow hands ;)

      Delete
  9. Hi Jared,

    Congrats for the 10 baggers. Trading Vs Investing? One is buy and sell, one is buy and hold. Which is better? Or asked which you are most comfortable with in yielding more return?

    Maybe absolute amount is for urself and closer ones behind this scene. Baggers or percentage is for public readers here. It is always more tricky when u do not know who are reading and how they may deduce your actual meaning.

    Happy New Year 2016.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rolf,

      Thank you.

      I'm not so sure buy and hold is investing...

      It's the other way round. Buy and hold is one of the many strategies of investing ;)

      Even those who collect artworks, antiques, or stamps will sell some pieces of their collections to fund or make room for new acquisitions ;)


      The investment side of my nano-hedge fund returns more in $ terms. Thankfully! It pays for my lifestyle ;)

      The trading side is for sharpening the saw when it comes to entries and exits.

      If one views excellence not as an act but a habit, how to improve when one only sells or buys once in a blue moon? No practice? No rehearsals? No 10,000 hours?

      I'm not that smart. I make up for it by putting in more hours into practice ;)

      That's why I wrote the below post to poke fake "value investors":

      Here's a question to Value Investors

      Must have struck a chord with readers as it's one of those few posts that broke century in comments ;)

      Delete
  10. Hi SMOL,

    This post made me angry. Since you are so good at trading, why are you always posting " nonsense " and not teach us how to trade. Haha. Ok . Philosophy of finance, I know, I know.

    Congratulations to your baggers!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Frugal Daddy,

      LOL!

      I can't teach; I facilitate.

      Nowadays people abuse words like coach or mentor.

      We mentor 入室弟子 only.

      Just like in those kungfu movies, even if you pay money to learn from a sifu, the ultimate skills are only taught to a select few.

      Same for work, I only mentor those whom I trust and is on my faction. Of course got office politics!

      Would you mentor the potentials of your opposing faction?

      Human nature :)


      Thanks for the congratulations. I'm only in the 3rd division now. Climbing closer towards the upper rankings one trade at a time.

      If I don't lose focus, I may stand a striking chance to move up to the 2nd division.

      Only then will I feel confident I've earned the right to apply for AFACT (Association of Financial and Commodity Traders) associate membership ;)

      Delete
  11. To see how good you are as a trader you can compare your performance against mine, a veteran futures trader with 11 years experience trading full time.

    I am a member of AFACT and a proprietary member of SGX Derivatives.

    I have been trading futures full time since May 2004.

    At end 2015 I made S$8,650 with about S$110K in my futures trading account at the beginning of 2015, less than 8% return.

    There were 3 trading days where my floating losses either exceeded or were close to my trading capital, at the peak, although I managed to get out with about $20K, $20K & $30K daily loss.

    Monthly P&L Total YTD Profits
    2015 January $4,800.00 $4,800.00
    February $6,200.00 $11,000.00
    March $12,700.00 $23,700.00
    April -$15,550.00 $8,150.00
    May $1,900.00 $10,050.00
    June -$42,550.00 -$32,500.00
    July $9,750.00 -$22,750.00
    August $11,100.00 -$11,650.00
    September $7,800.00 -$3,850.00
    October $3,650.00 -$200.00
    November $3,300.00 $3,100.00
    December $5,550.00 $8,650.00
    YTD 2015 $8,650.00

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jac,

      Wow!

      You are resilient!

      Talk about where you fall; where you stand up...

      Respect!

      Lesser traders would have capitulated and crumbled after taking that massive loss in June :(

      OK. I better shut up. That means I'm just on a lucky winning streak... Doing my best to let it go and not let the winnings get into my head. Focus on One Good Trade, one trade at a time.


      I got to know AFACT from coconut and Fat88 (his hairstyle cool or what?).

      Good good. Hope to join AFACT one day and join you for drinks in your monthly meetups ;)

      Ai yeah. You not blogging?

      Free do come sit sit once in a while OK?

      Delete
    2. wow haha, jac manage to get from under water to positive, you have a nerve of steel.

      but may i ask why your losses is so big compare to your average winner? you average losses right?

      Delete
    3. now i'm not saying average losses is totally bad, i used it too. but with extreme dicipline and control. i got hit very hard before!

      Delete
    4. i used to average looses becos i can't stand losing a trade and it becomes a habit. you must ask yourself why are you averaging losses, if it is the reason above, better stop immediately.

      average losses is the number one killer of all traders!

      Delete
    5. i still average losses like i say, its very dangerious. you need deep pocket and nerve of steel but most of all i defuse the danger by:

      1, overall positioning control (position sizing)/ portfolio management.

      2, i also average winners and thats the most immportant.

      Delete
    6. to equalize the stratigies, to keep ourself and our startegy balance is the most immportant thing i learn as a trader throughtout my trading life!

      never lives by one method you like, learn the opposite, the dislike and keep it balance as possible!

      Delete
    7. First S$20K+ daily loss was on 09Apr15 from trading HSI. You can check the chart to see how HSI moved after it opened to see how I could have floating loss that were close to my trading capital. HSI opened at 26711 and hit a high of 27999, 1755 pts from previous close, 1288 from open before reversing down to 26750 and then back up to 27370. I had small overnight mini HSI short position and added more when it opened in the morning and had about S$1.5K profit which I did not take and added to my limit when prices moved higher. I lost S$22300 on 4.6 lots HSI and 2.5 lots HHI shorts that day.

      Delete
    8. i do not know jac, and i don't know his strategy. i'm only guessing.

      if averaging losses is used as part of the startegy, a 40k lost can turn out to be 400k lost easily when the market go mad even if you have stop loss orders placed.

      never average losses unless you have all kinds of protection in place and most of all, a willing to be killed when things really goes wrong, a bullet in the head as what i call it.

      Delete
    9. My 2nd big daily loss was on 23Jun15 from shorting Nikkei futures, averaging losers to my limit. Lost about S$30K that day.

      My 3rd big daily loss was on 29Ju15 when CME Nikkei futures (NIY)opened at 20600, down 230Y from Sat morning close due to Greece failure to reach bailout agreement. NIY traded down to 20275. I was long 40 lots NIY & 40 lots NKD, break even at 20345. SGX NK opens at 20385 and I had about S$10K profit if I had gotten out all at that price but I only managed to square 18 lots NIY. Lost about S$20K that day as prices went lower & lower to the point where my floating losses exceeded my trading capital at the peak. I went to the toilet to pee when I see my trading capital got wiped out and nothing came out from my bladder!

      Delete
    10. hi jac, as what i guess you do average losses. somehow its in our blood isn't it haha.

      anyway good to see you recovered well, i have my close call too very often.

      happy new year to you.

      Delete
    11. Happy new year.

      I know what I need to do to get rid of my habit of adding to losing positions based on the simple concept that if I employ a trading strategy to add to winners, I can't add to losers.

      Delete
  12. Hmm Jac,

    Always interested to know more about traders. Are u "retail" or working for companies?

    For those who work for companies, how does it work? You burst the loss limit thrice and you are out?

    And the gains? How is it shared with the company?

    Can the gains offset the loss?

    They looked at monthly gain/loss or annually??

    Just a curious cat. No worries if u do not wish to pander to my curiosity

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have only traded with my own money, never traded for companies.

      I did my first futures trades as a retail trader through Phillip Futures paying higher retail commissions before becoming an SGX "local" paying special low commissions for SGX derivatives products like Nikkei/SiMSCI/TiMSCI.

      I do not know the answers to the rest of your questions.

      Delete
    2. Hmm. Jac,

      Pardon my bluntness or "low eq", am I correct to say that since u are a full time trader, you also have other investments/ assets that generate cash flow for you?

      Otherwise how to survive with that winnings?

      I ask not as a disrespect, but to confirm
      My idea that those traders already have a big "mountain" behind before they can go "pro" or "full
      Time"

      Delete
    3. haha thats a very cute question, big mountain haha..

      basically there are 2 type of traders, 1 is to work for someone or a company and get paid or 2, trade with your own money, where you are on your own.

      anyone who trade will fall into either one or both of above.

      there are 2 ways a trader will go, 1 is to build a mountain behind him and 2, one who had flatten his own mountain or both.

      Delete
    4. I thought SMOL has already built up his big mountain and using his molehill to trade to achieve. Right?

      Delete
    5. I know of SMOL's mountain for pension and molehill for passion. I just wondered is it possible to trade for a living without a mountain.

      So traders are not really different from investors, they just has a step ahead after FI.

      Delete
    6. traders and investors are totally diffreent, they are like fire and water, like cowboy and er...

      wolf.

      Delete
    7. sillyinvestor, why do you need a mountain in order to trade if i get your meaning of mountain correct?

      if you can prof it, money will start pouring in even if you don't have a mountain behind you. you will be bury by the mountain already.

      to trade for a living most important is do you have a winning strategy or an edge in your trading? ofcos thats a difficult question to answer unfortunately only the experience can tell.

      Delete
    8. and the best way is to build the mountain through trading rather than build your mountain by other means and then flatten it through trading.

      Delete
    9. and i guess smol is trying to build his molehill and turn it into another mountain. he just needed the big break to come.

      Delete
    10. Sillyinvestor,

      I have negligible NET income from trading futures full time since end 2008, due to a huge half a million loss in 2012. I can say I worked as a full time trader for nothing, the past 7 years.

      I started trading full time after being retrenched from Chevron in Feb 2004 with a "big mountain" of about S$200K from my retrenchment benefits & savings.

      In Feb 2007, after 36 months of full time trading, I had no net profits and a small S$70K "mountain" behind me, which ballooned to a million dollar mountain by end 2008.

      To survive the past few years with no trading income, I had to sell off my car 2 years ago and my wife started working as a waitress for since Apr last year.

      I can continue trading with the same S$110K capital I had last year, and I have enough savings to live a simple and happy life.

      Delete
    11. Jac,

      I am humbled and grateful for your personal testimony.

      The life of a full time trader is anything but a bed of roses... There are always 2 sides of the story...

      I see you were on the right side of the market during the Lehman crisis.

      I guess I had the "dream start" for all aspiring newly minted full time traders out there.

      Making money from trading, that is not the hard part; holding on to our winnings, now that's something else!

      That's why despite my 6 bagger capital base last year, I've only doubled my trading position size.

      And I'll stick with it one more year in 2016 even though I've got a 11 bagger capital base.

      Effectively shooting my own foot if I want to outperform my past years in % terms ;)

      I play defense. Boring like Italian football...

      Delete
    12. Wonderful to have Jac here for his testimony!

      Real People. Real Trader!

      SGX Local? If I remembered correctly few years ago, I have been seeing SGX regularly advertising on SGX Local. Training course and mentor-ship is provided.

      Once I was thinking about it too. :-)

      Delete
    13. CW,

      Need to boost the declining daily trading volumes in SGX mah... Someone got to provide the liquidity!

      Ha ha. You too?

      I also went to a couple of remisier recruitments and those SGX local mentorship programmes.

      By the way, renting a both at a Trading Arcade has gone down now to $500 per month.

      Very tempting...

      Then I realized I've been surviving with a HP 11.6' netbook for 3 years (yeah bloody NETBOOOK), why on earth do I want a 4 or 6 screens setup for? Men and our toys...

      I just upgraded to a DELL XPS 13 touchscreen proper notebook as a reward before Christmas.

      Touch screen fun!

      No, I don't use it for trading. I use it for Candy Crush and playing other games like Brave Frontier.

      I don't need speed for my style of trading.

      I need more of your:

      "Less analyzing; more investing"!


      Delete
    14. Jac,

      Really appreciate your honest replies. Must say it really allow me to see the other side clearer than before.

      It's not a bed of roses is an understatement, it is a bed of thorns where one endure and learn the craft.

      Wondered if u ever harbour the thoughts of finding a job again?

      Delete
  13. traders are persons who do trading, any kind of trading, buy and sell, i know of a person who trade for a chocolate firm, he trade in the futures coco market as well as cash market, he only collect salsry.

    most traders are speculators, like me and you and anyone else, trying to profit in buying and selling, can be anything. we are retail traders.

    as a pro, you can set up a company to trade the stock and dereviative or futures market, call propietory tarding firm, you can also employ traders to trade for you, you set your own terms.

    you can also be an individual traders, part time or full time does not matter so long as you register with SGX. you can call yourself a pro like jac.

    you can alsso be employ as a trader in a bank or financial institutuions. but i suspect the role of these traders had greatly reduce in recent times.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Sillyinvestor,

    The one who knows me best turned out to be my nemesis, my direct opposite, my sparring partner - CW ;)

    "So traders are not really different from investors, they just has a step ahead after FI."

    Now substitute the word "traders" with "investors". Do you still have the same view?

    Can you see the nuances and difference between Earn more; Save more?

    And when CW and I talk about climbing up and walking down the mountain?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SMOL,

      Precisely I see things differently that I am "irritating"
      Let me poke u. After you got your mountain through your man whore days, did you deploy them Jedi style or assassin style?

      Jac is different and true and blue trader.

      Delete
    2. Sillyinvestor,

      You are not "irritating. You are "adorable" because you are like "white paper" ;)

      Your cup is full. Poor listening and reading skills.

      You are asking me to repeat what I've shared in my previous posts...

      What to do? I did say you are "special".


      I'm an omnivore; a man-whore - I not picky. Money is money.

      I would rather call myself a Trader as that's intellectually more stimulating for me. Trading is fighting openly (at the battlefield) in the Light.

      As an investor, I was quietly active during 2nd half of 2009 and beginning of 2010. Then nothing to do until end 2014 and beginning 2015 when I was ever so careful to take some money off the table - least I make any sound. Shhh.

      That's being an assassin in the Dark.


      OK, thanks! Good to know I can never be a Smurf trader.

      Delete
  15. coconut,

    Thank you for helping out sillyinvestor and his "bei kambing" questions.

    Your answers carry more weight.


    Just remembered I long time no poke you... So to share the love, here goes!

    I suspect you are not a member of AFACT. I don't think they will accept "mental cases" ;)

    Don't hit the face!

    ReplyDelete
  16. sayang sayang, right on, i'm not only not a memeber of afact, i'm not not a member of anything.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. if you do meet me (CB!) you will see what kind of a person and a trader i am!

      Delete
    2. today not free ahr, going to play billiard....

      Delete
    3. coconut,

      I imagine you with "ang kong" all over your body.

      What a let down. I was hoping you are a member of 洪门 or 青帮。

      As a Singaporean, I have not really explored Geylang. Was hoping you can be my tour guide.


      I still remember with fondness the wonderful tour of Amsterdam's red light district by a Canadian ex-prostitute in her late 50s.

      Very professional and educational; nothing seedy at all ;)

      Delete

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